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Year to March 2015
14th May 2015
Year to March 2015 14 th May 2015 1 2 FY15 highlights FY15-FY17 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Year to March 2015 14 th May 2015 1 2 FY15 highlights FY15-FY17 Financials Update on Strategic Priorities 3 4.2% * revenue growth for FY15, accelerating to 6.0% in Q4 1m new RGUs added in FY15 (+20%) and lowest churn (Q4: 1.3%) 40% growth in
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14th May 2015
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Raising revenue target to FY17 to 5% CAGR and on track to deliver FY17 EBITDA margin 25%
*Statutory revenue after £5m exceptional VAT adjustment in FY14
10.4p 12.0p 13.8p FY13 FY14 FY15
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+15% £76m £110m
3.1%* 4.2% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 12.3% 13.6% FY14 FY15 +15% £318m £309m FY14 FY15
*Statutory revenue after £5m exceptional VAT adjustment in FY14 £213m £245m
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£76m £110m
(51)
(133)
(3) 133 87 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 8 65 134 272 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 61 114 109 180 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 230 687 497 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Customers taking TV, mobile or fibre all have higher NPS and lower churn than phone & broadband customers
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Phone and Broadband = 1RGU/customer 25.47 26.37 26.93 28.18
1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 RGUs On-net Churn
8 37% of phone and broadband customers taking TV vs 26% a year ago TV customers deliver higher lifetime value than broadband customers › Higher NPS › Churn half that of dual play › Incremental content revenue (+45%) Blinkbox acquisition enables › Acceleration of TV to Go App development › Expanding pay per view content › Agreement signed with HBO to offer Game of Thrones (s1-4) on Buy to Own basis access on TV to Go App from June › Greater engagement, higher content ARPU and lower churn
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6
Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
Growing Base and Penetration The vast majority of customers will take TV over time
9 12.7% of phone and broadband base now taking fibre vs c6% a year ago Demand growing gradually, helped by bandwidth requirement and self-install Margin squeeze regulation now in place; expect tougher pro-competition measures in due course 12.3% of phone and broadband base now taking mobile vs 7% a year ago Strong growth in SIM-only demand (13% market share in March ’15 vs 4% a year ago) Strong take-up of bundled SIM from Plus TV customers
85k 117k 152k 175k 202k 236k 260k 284k 308k 348k 398k 464k
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
15k 30k 52k 73k 95k 142k 177k 207k 241k 308k 396k 479k
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
10% growth in Corporate revenue (over 15% vs 2 years ago) Strong growth in Data revenues (+40%) more than offsetting decline in legacy Voice Over 26,000 business Data lines Significant opportunity to drive growth in Data products in medium sized corporates – material market share opportunity tIPicall acquisition will enable TTB to aggressively enter fast growing B2B VOIP market
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FY13 FY14 FY15
Data +39% CAGR Voice -10% CAGR
5.4 7.1 8.7 10.2 11.8 13.7 15.2 17.4 19.2 21.6 23.9 26.2 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
Corporate Revenue Ethernet & EFM Lines (‘000)
Data Carrier Voice
11 Process improvements recognised by our customers and our regulator Some systems implementation delayed Significantly greater benefits identified for delivery in FY16-FY17 Churn
1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%
9,191 6,355 5,040 FY13 FY14 FY15
Ofcom Complaints
£30m-£50m £15m £17m £15m £25m £70m+ FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16-FY17 £15m Original Target Delivered Delivered Delayed Additional Identified Total
MTTS Benefits
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Upgrading to 5% CAGR to FY17 and >5% beyond FY17 Expect continuing quad play momentum to FY17 and beyond Expect greater benefits from MTTS over next two years and beyond On track deliver 25% EBITDA margin in FY17
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(1) Headline results excluding exceptional items and amortisation of acquisition intangibles
+3.9% +4.2% +0.3% Q3FY14 VAT impact Headline Statutory Opex
SAC & Marketing FY14 FY15 309 427 318 426 FY14 FY15 958 41 19 980 Price & Proposition Mix
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ARPU Growth +2.3%*
* Adjusted for FY14 exceptional VAT impact *
£1,722m* £1,795m
On-net Corporate Off-net
Full year Revenue Growth
FY14 FY15 26.36 1.71 0.75 26.97 Price & Proposition Mix 0.63 1.22 Voice usage New products
On-net growth 7.3% › Underlying base + ARPU › Virgin base in Q4 ARPU growth of 4.6% Corporate growth 14.3% Off-net decline 33.3% RGU growth of 16% to 1.56 16
Accelerating Revenue Growth Q4 FY15
+3.1% +3.6% +4.2%* +6.0%
Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15
* After £5m exceptional adjustment in FY14 for VAT
Focus on driving efficiency › Reducing costs through fewer engineer visits › Better contractual terms Whilst investing in growth › Investing to scale TV, mobile & ultrafast › Investing in our network Opex 23.7% of revenue, a reduction of 110bps 17
Full Year Opex
FY14 FY15 427 12 17 426 MTTS Innovation 2 2 blinkbox Business Expansion
Additional investment in growing mobile, fibre and broadband offset by lower TV volumes Underlying SAC falling due to lower churn and lower CPA for TV and broadband 18
Increased investment in H2 FY15 Product Net Adds SAC & Marketing
FY14 FY15 CPA Churn Growth H1 FY14 H2 FY14 H1 FY15 H2 FY15 174 144 153 156
TV BB Fibre Mobile
H1 FY14 H2 FY14 H1 FY15 H2 FY15 318 16 7 14 309
19 FY15 EBITDA up 15% H2 EBITDA margin of 14.6%
FY14 FY15 Gross Profit Lower Churn Investment in Growth 213 22 7 30 245 17 16 Lower CPA MTTS
20 >£100m >£40m >£70m
Incremental Gross Profit MTTS SAC reduction through lower CPA
>£30m
SAC reduction through lower Churn
EBITDA £246m
13.7%
FY15 FY17
Investment in Growth
Illustrative EBITDA £475m EBITDA £213m
12.3%
FY14
25%
+5% CAGR
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2.3 x 2.4 x
FY14 FY15 OFCF Interest & Tax Dividend 497 114 24 116 589 30 36 Investments Exceptionals
Successfully refinanced core debt › Renewed bank debt › Accessed US private placement market Capex › stable at c6% of revenues for FY15 › FY16 core capex 6-6.5% with further 1-2% capex investment in mobile and ultrafast fibre projects Exceptional items › FY15: Primarily MTTS › FY16: expected £40m-£45m driven by mobile, acquisitions and MTTS Investments › Acquisitions of Tesco and Virgin Media broadband bases and blinkbox › Youview and York JV
Revenue growth 5% › Strong on-net growth driven by base and ARPU › Strong growth in Data products › Continued decline in off-net and corporate Legacy Voice › Multi-product strategy with continued investment in growth Strong growth in EBITDA and Operating FCF › H2 weighted Net debt / EBITDA < FY15 Dividend growth of 15%
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On-net Network Advantage Integrated Quad-play TalkTalk Business Making TalkTalk Simpler Ultrafast Fibre Inside Out Mobile
Revenue growth >5% and sustained FCF generation
Making TalkTalk Simpler Quad Play Network Advantage 25 25
FY14-FY17 A HIGH GROWTH, INTEGRATED, VALUE FOR MONEY TELECOMS NETWORK
Scaling TTB Ultrafast and Inside Out Mobile The No.1 Priority Growing take-up of TV, fibre and mobile Scaling and simplifying Growing data revenues Trialling and laying the foundations
Beyond FY17
Brand reputation transformed Growing household market share Rising bandwidth usage, lower marginal cost Doubled market share Step change economics enable scaling
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but Premium Content
Premium broadband & voice
mobile base in EE
Best value BROADBAND Best value TV Best value MOBILE Value for money in all 4 elements of quadplay
28 18m Cost of Dual Play 18m Cost of Triple Play 18m Cost of Quad Play Cheapest UNLIMITED SIM-Only
£12.00 £27.00 £18.00 £25.00 £27.00 £27.99 £29.00 TalkTalk 3 Vmed BT Voda EE O2 £397 £437 £473 £480 £574 £621 TalkTalk Sky BT Plusnet EE BT Virgin Media £487 £534 £653 £687 £702 £849 TalkTalk EE BT Plusnet BT Virgin Media Sky £667 £804 £858 £936
TalkTalk EE BT Virgin Media Not Unlimited
3G 3G 4G 4G 4G 4G 4G
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7% 26% 37% >75%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17 FY20
5% 7% 12% 1/hh
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17 FY20
2% 6% 13% >50%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17 FY20
1.12 1.35 1.56 >2
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY17 FY20
TV Mobile Fibre RGUs
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£30m-£50m £15m £17m £15m £25m £70m FY13 FY14 FY15 FY6-FY17 £15m Original Target Delivered Delivered Delayed Delayed from FY15 + Additional Identified Total ££m Beyond -FY17 ££m
What’s changed Clear vision of end goal Learned from Salesforce implementation Delivered 55+ projects Seconded team of senior leaders; 160 FTEs, rising to 280 FTEs at peak Identified, scoped and resourced 140+ projects
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Clear, simple products and tariffs Joining and upgrading process that just works Fast, reliable network Clear and fair billing Efficient multi-channel self- service WHAT CUSTOMERS WANT FROM TALKTALK ALL AT VALUE FOR MONEY PRICES Significantly lower call volumes Lower leakage between sales and connection Lower bad debt from right first time bills and easier payment processes Lower retention costs from happier customers Lower operating costs from fewer engineer visits and router replacements FINANCIAL BENEFITS £70m by FY17
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Clear, simple products and tariffs Great joining and upgrading process Fast, reliable network Clear and fair billing and payments Flexible and efficient customer service
legacy tariffs
2015
£17m delivered FY15 £40m+ £m++
residual SMPF
Critical Path replacing 6 legacy systems
tariffs
retiring old iProcess Order Management
address validation
decisioning
and repair tools
system
exchange
system and processes
improvements
management
system
2016-17
continuous improvement
integrated network, including mobile
network and increasing Superfast fibre
integrated across all channels and all products
serve
2017-20
welcome centre
sales and upsell
processes
tools trialled
connectivity issues
for new customers
credits
training
decisioning & CRM
product set at great prices
Launched April 27th Unlimited voice, texts and data for £12 30 day contract
33 Market leading Quad play
Plus TV Unlimited broadband Anytime calls Free SIM worth £90 › 100 minutes › 250 texts › 200MB data
Only available to TalkTalk broadband customers
Market leading Unlimited SIM
85k 117k 152k 175k 202k 236k 260k 284k 308k 348k 398k 464k
Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15
4.2% 5.0% 7.9% 10.7% Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15
Source: GfK
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THIN MVNO WITH VOD THIN MVNO WITH O2 THICK MVNO WITH O2 FEMTO ROLLOUT WITH TT SPECTRUM
economics based
volumes
add-on
share 13%
reseller economics reflecting scale and growth of base
as quad play
economics (similar to LLU) from building
network
roaming
significantly drives down cost/Mb
better experience
integrated inside
2013-15 FY15 2016-17 2017
mobile network
lower costs
better customer experience
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40 FY15 Headline FY15 Exceptional FY15 Statutory EBITDA 245 (46) 199 Depreciation (78) (5) (83) Amortisation (42) (12) (54) Share of JVs (8) (8) Interest (22) (22) Profit Before Tax 95 (63) 32 Tax (19) 59 40 Effective Tax Rate 20% Profit After Tax 76 (4) 72 EPS 8.2 7.8 DPS 13.8 13.8
DPS Headline EPS Exceptional
MTTS Acquisition Innovation
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42 Simply Broadband Essentials TV Plus TV BETTER GOOD BEST £5.00* £10.00* £20.00*
Totally unlimited broadband, no caps and no speed loss at peak times Britain's safest connection, with award winning HomeSafe security service Free calls between all TalkTalk customers Totally unlimited broadband, no caps and no speed loss at peak times Unlimited eve & w/e calls to UK landlines including 0870 and 0845 numbers Britain's safest connection with award winning HomeSafe security service Free calls between all TalkTalk customers FREE YouView box worth £149 70+ Freeview channels some in HD 7-day catch up with BBC iPlayer, ITV Player, Demand5 and 4oD Pause for up to 30 minutes Access to Now TV & TalkTalk BOX OFFICE Add entertainment channels with Kids or Picturebox TV Boosts a month at a time Totally unlimited broadband, no caps and no speed loss at peak times Unlimited anytime calls to UK landlines including 0870 and 0845 numbers Britain's safest connection with award winning HomeSafe security service and Super Safe Boost Free calls between all TalkTalk customers FREE YouView + box with PVR, worth £299 7 Sky Entertainment Channels 70+ Freeview channels some in HD Pause, rewind & record, including whole series record at the touch of a button Record over 200+ hours of freeview 7-day catch up with BBC iPlayer, ITV Player, Demand5 and 4oD Access to Now TV & TalkTalk BOX OFFICE Add entertainment channels with TV Boosts like Sky Sports and Sky Movies a month at a time Free Mobile SIM worth £90 including a monthly allowance of 100 minutes, 250 texts & 250Mb of data * Excluding Line Rental at £16.70 per month
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DUAL PLAY TalkTalk BT PlusNet Sky Virgin Media EE Product Name Simply Broadband Unlimited Broadband PlusNet Unlimited Broadband Broadband Unlimited Virgin Media Broadband 50 MB Unlimited Broadband Monthly Fee £5.00 £17.50 £9.99 £7.50 £17.50 £9.95 Line Rental £16.70 £16.99 £15.95 £16.40 £16.99 £16.40 Total Monthly Fee £21.70 £34.49 £25.94 £23.90 £34.49 £26.35 Postage / Setup £6.75 £6.95 £5.99 £6.95 £0.00 £6.00 Inclusive Calls None Included None Included Weekend Weekend None Included Weekend Contract 18 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months Total Cost 18m £397.35 £573.77 £472.91 £437.15 £620.82 £480.30 Savings with TalkTalk (18m) £176.42 £75.56 £39.80 £223.47 £82.95 Monthly Average £22.08 £31.88 £26.27 £24.29 £34.49 £26.68 TRIPLE PLAY TalkTalk BT Plusnet Sky Virgin Media EE Product Name TalkTalk Essentials TV TV Starter + Unlimited Broadband + Evening & Weekend Calls Plusnet Fibre, TV & Calls Sky Original Bundle with Broadband Unlimited Big Easy (50 MB) EE TV, Broadband & Calls Monthly Fee £10.00 £24.50 £19.99 £29.00 £22.00 £12.95 Line Rental £16.70 £16.99 £15.95 £16.40 £16.99 £16.40 Total Monthly Fee £26.70 £41.49 £35.94 £45.40 £38.99 £29.35 Postage £6.75 £6.95 £5.99 £6.95 £0.00 £6.00 TV Connection Fee £0.00* £35.00 £0.00 £25.00 £0.00 £0.00 Inclusive Calls Evening & Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekend Contract 18 Months 12 Months 18 Months 12 Months 18 Months 18 Months Total Cost 18m £487.35 £686.77 £652.91 £849.15 £701.82 £534.30 Savings with TalkTalk (18m) £199.42 £165.56 £361.80 £214.47 £46.95 Monthly Average £27.08 £38.15 £36.27 £47.18 £38.99 £29.68 QUAD PLAY TalkTalk BT Virgin Media EE Product Name TalkTalk Plus TV TV Starter, Unlimited Broadband, Anytime Calls + BT Mobile 500MB Plan Big Easy (50 MB) + Anytime Calls + 250MB Sim EE TV, Broadband, Anytime Calls + 250MB Sim Monthly Fee £20.00 £34.00 £35.00 £27.94 Line Rental £16.70 £16.99 £16.99 £16.40 Total Monthly Fee £36.70 £50.99 £51.99 £44.34 Postage £6.75 £6.95 £0.00 £6.00 TV Connection Fee £0.00* £35.00 £0.00 £0.00 Inclusive Calls Evening & Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekend Contract 18 Months 12 Months 18 Months 18 Months Total Cost 18m £667.35 £857.77 £935.82 £804.12 Savings with TalkTalk (18m) £190.42 £268.47 £136.77 Monthly Average £37.08 £47.65 £51.99 £44.67 FIBRE TalkTalk BT Virgin Media Sky PlusNet EE Product Name TalkTalk Simply BB with Fibre Medium Unlimited BT Infinity 1 Broadband Only (50 MB) Fibre Unlimited & Talk Weekends Unlimited Fibre and Calls Unlimited Fibre Monthly Fee £15.00 £23.00 £17.50 £20.00 £14.99 £19.95 Line Rental £16.70 £16.99 £16.99 £16.40 £15.95 £16.40 Total Monthly Fee £31.70 £39.99 £34.49 £36.40 £30.94 £36.35 Postage / Setup £56.75 £36.95 £0.00 £36.95 £5.99 £56.00 Inclusive Calls N/A Weekend N/A Weekend Eve & Wkd Weekend Total Cost 18m £627.35 £696.77 £620.82 £692.15 £562.91 £710.30 Savings with TalkTalk (18m) £69.42 £64.80 £82.95 Monthly Average £34.85 £38.71 £34.49 £38.45 £31.27 £39.46
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FY13 FY14 FY15 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 On-Net Broadband & Voice 3.096 3.162 3.231 3.295 3.346 3.402 3.532 3.570 3.615 3.656 3.708 3.775 Broadband Only 0.669 0.642 0.609 0.575 0.548 0.526 0.503 0.490 0.468 0.449 0.420 0.402 Total On-net 3.765 3.804 3.840 3.870 3.894 3.928 4.035 4.060 4.083 4.105 4.128 4.177 Churn 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% Fully Unbundled 77% 78% 80% 81% 82% 83% 84% 85% 86% 87% 88% 88% Mobile 0.085 0.117 0.152 0.175 0.202 0.236 0.260 0.284 0.308 0.348 0.398 0.464 Fibre 0.015 0.030 0.052 0.073 0.095 0.142 0.177 0.207 0.241 0.308 0.396 0.479 TV 0.080 0.230 0.390 0.557 0.732 0.917 1.102 1.217 1.332 1.414 Off-net Broadband 0.282 0.239 0.213 0.193 0.177 0.148 0.151 0.136 0.123 0.116 0.108 0.106 Voice 0.436 0.407 0.380 0.358 0.335 0.315 0.297 0.282 0.252 0.242 0.234 0.226 Total Broadband 4.047 4.043 4.053 4.063 4.071 4.076 4.186 4.196 4.206 4.221 4.236 4.283 Revenue On-net 285 288 292 305 306 306 3151 327 322 326 334 351 Off-net 49 46 43 40 35 34 29 30 24 22 21 20 Corporate 80 80 80 82 80 82 87 91 88 89 94 104 Total 414 414 415 427 421 422 4311 448 434 437 449 475 ARPU On-net 25.27 25.37 25.47 26.37 26.28 26.08 26.371 26.93 26.36 26.54 27.05 28.18 Off-net 21.71 22.48 23.13 23.31 21.94 23.25 21.23 23.09 20.18 20.01 20.00 19.78
1 Prior year revenue adjusted to reflect exceptional item resulting from HMRC ruling on VAT treatment