Work Package 1 Management and Practical Aspects Task 1.1: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Deliverables & Milestones D3.1 Data Management Plan on the structured metadata repository maintained by the consortium, the various methods of formalization used in the different case studies proposed in WP4, WP5, WP6, and the management of the data generated during the project (M6) D3.2 Report on visualization methods developed in the NIS (M42) D3.3 Report on the datasets and tools used to support the applications of Quantitative Story Telling (M48) MS15 Data Repository Responsible: 7 – UNINA month 12 Basic data repository to support the applications of WP4,5, and 6 for use by all consortium members. To be in place by month 12, and then gradually expanded during the course of the project

Action plan WP3 specific activities we are in charge of: Compilation and catalogue of existing databases: we are  hiring two junior researcher ( one dedicated to data sources and one to models and their surrogates ) NIS relational structuring: we will structure metadata  and schemata for integration of sources (e.g. CIM ★ ) Visualization and coordination with web platform:  past experience and sub-contracting the last year . Develop adapters with the tight collaboration of ITC:  we already started to cooperate ( active exchanges ) .

WORK PACKAGE 4 Z O R A K O V A C I C , T A R I K S E R R A N O

EU WP1 admini nist strat ration WP3 NEXUS US Information ormation Space CASE STUDIES DIES WP WP7 WP4 Quality check on on the WP5 robustness ess of narrative ves Defin finin ing the NEXUS permanent manent Quantitati ntitative ve Knowledg edge platfo tform rm of of Hub Hub Story ry-Tell Tellin ing interac eraction tion Quality check on on the WP6 assessm essment of innovati ations ons WP2 NEXUS US Dialog ogue ue Space interac eractions tions during ng the proje ject ct

QUANTITATIVE STORY-TELLING FOR GOVERNANCE • Problems of evidence based policy: • Over-simplification • Dealing with complexity

OVERSIMPLIFICATION “ Based on historical trends, our projections show that population numbers should keep increasing: we look to the upcoming Thanksgiving with confidence …”

GDP WILL RESUME GROWTH IN 2009 European Commission, Economic Forecast, autumn 2007. Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Economy, No. 7/2007

Euro Area (18 Eurostat EC Forecast, countries) abs. average error 2.5 pts (170%) 2009 -4.8 2.1 error=6.9 2010 1.7 1 error=0.7 2011 1.3 1.5 error=0.2 2012 -0.9 2 error=1.1 2013 -0.6 1.4 error=2.0 EU (28 countries) Eurostat EC Forecast, abs average error 2.4 pts (140%) 2009 -4.8 2.4 error=7.2 2010 1.7 1 error=0.7 2011 1.4 1.5 error=0.1 2012 -0.7 2 error=2.7 2013 -0.1 1.5 error=1.6 Eurostat http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=t sdec100

FORECASTS HAVE A MEAN REVERTING CORE

COMPLEXITY

Multi-scale analysis Event: THE DEATH OF A PARTICULAR INDIVIDUAL EXPLANATION 1 --> “ no oxygen supply in the brain ” Space-time scale : VERY SMALL Example : EMERGENCY ROOM Implications for action : APPLY KNOWN PROCEDURES Based on known HOW - past affecting strongly present actions EXPLANATION 2 --> “ affected by lung cancer ” Space-time scale : SMALL Example : MEDICAL TREATMENT Implications for action : KNOWN PROCEDURES & EXPERIMENTATION Looking for a better HOW - past affecting present, but room for change EXPLANATION 3 --> “ individual was a heavy smoker ” Space-time scale : MEDIUM Example : MEETING AT HEALTH MINISTRY Implications for action : MIX EXPERIENCE AND WANTS INTO POLICY Considering HOW and WHY - past and “ virtual future ” affecting present EXPLANATION 4 --> “ humans must die ” Space-time scale : VERY LARGE Example : SUSTAINABILITY ISSUES Implications for action : DEALING WITH THE TRAGEDY OF CHANGE Considering WHY - “ virtual future ” (values) affecting present

pre-analytical definition WHAT WHY of what should be analyzed car Safety Economic moving people Criterion Criterion on land boat moving people on water bike moving people short distance airplane moving people long distance truck moving heavy loads horse moving around when at war tank GOALS Cultural Driving quality + Criterion Criterion CONTEXT SEMANTIC FRAMING OF THE ANALYSIS

Economic Safety Criterion Criterion Cultural Driving quality Criterion Criterion

Can we use the same multi-criteria space to characterize the choice between a TRABANT and a FERRARI? NO WAY! It does not provide enough information to either those interested in buying a TRABANT, nor those interested in buying a FERRARI The two types of buyer will requires a different selection of indicators and attributes: a different WHAT

George Box ( 18 October 1919 – 28 March 2013) Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987), Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces , John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY. P 424 “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

PLURALISM Non-equivalent Representations Non-equivalent Perceptions models ecologist economist encoding biologist decoding engineer “SYSTEM” relevant attributes sociologist Plurality of Observations 19

ROSEN’S MODELLING RELATION Narrative

NEW NARRATIVES  What makes a model useful?  Who defines the purpose? GDP was created during WWII in order to measure productive capacity to face the war – is this model still useful to assess economic performance?

QUANTITATIVE CHECK OF THE USEFULNESS OF NARRATIVES • A different way of doing science • Using quantitative methods to check the usefulness of narratives • Quantitative tools are used as heuristic tools • Beware of spurious quantification

Year 1997 Finland = 29.73 MJ/hr El Salvador = 2.92 MJ/hr Finland = 12.6 MJ/$ TET TET MJ THA THA MJ MJ US$ = 12.6 !!! 12.6 !!! US$ = TET TET GDP GDP GDP GDP No significance ! THA THA No external referent ! $ El Salvador = 12.6 MJ/$ ELP PW level n-1 El Salvador = 0.23 $/hr 5 $/hour 31 $/hour Finland = 2.35 $/hr ELP PS (2,020 $/year p.c) (20,600 $/year p.c) 14 $/hour HA PS 27 $/hour ELP AG HA AG HA SG ELP SG 0.8 $/hour 2 $/hour

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY Technical know-how ≠ Large scale application

WHAT TYPE OF QUANTIFICATION? • Grammars • Semantic description of the interaction of elements in the system • Metabolic patterns • levels of consumption in extensive and intensive variables • Domestic production vs imports/exports in flows/hour and flows/ha

DAY 2 – WP4

HOW WP4 WORKS 1. Training 2. Development of analytical tools 3. Analysis of 8-10 EU countries 4. Global drivers 5. Planetary boundaries 6. Externalization 7. Interaction with EC Case studies WP5 Case studies WP6 8. Updating Grammars

WP4 TASKS 1. Training (UAB with support of all other partners) Alternatively Liphe4 Summer School MuSIASEM Internal Project Training Session in 11-15 July !!! • Month 4: 5-9 September 2016 • MILESTONE 1

WP4 TASKS 2. Development of analytical tools (UAB with support of HUTTON, WU, UT, UiB, UNINA, CA, ITC) Definition of a general framework for the quantitative analysis of the nexus based on “grammars” • Months 1 to 12 • DELIVERABLE 4.1

WP4 TASKS 3. State of the Play of 8-10 EU countries (WU with support of UAB, HUTTON, UT, UiB, UNINA, CA, ITC) Develop a protocol for the characterization the whole EU with a granularity of NUTS1 or NUTS 2 regions • Months 9 to 18 -> DELIVERABLE 4.2 NUTS 2 8-10 EU countries NUTS 1

WP4 TASKS 4.4 Planetary Boundaries 4.3 4.5 Externalization Global Drivers Deliverable 4.3 Deliverable led by University of Twente

WP4 TASKS 4. Global Drivers (UAB with support of WU, HUTTON, UT, UNINA, CA, ITC) Generate simulations of the effect of existing drivers on global metabolic patterns in the future for food , water and energy requirements • Months 9 to 18

WP4 TASKS 5. Planetary Boundaries (WU with support of UAB, HUTTON, UT, UNINA, CA, ITC) DPSIR of different types of SES in the world to check the limits to the expansion of societal consumption determined by external constraints • Months 9 to 18

WP4 TASKS 6. Externalization (UT with support of UAB, HUTTON, WU, UNINA, CA, ITC) Effects of EU externalization of impacts to other SES because of imports • water footprint for embodied water • ghost land for agricultural production • stock depletion and GHG emissions associated with imported energy • Months 9 to 18

WP4 TASKS 7. Interaction with EC (UAB and JRC with support of all other partners) Interactive Meeting with EU Staff (from Policy and Innovation Teams) This meeting will lead to the selection of case studies of WP 5 and WP6 • Month 18 • Milestone 2!

WP4 TASKS 8. Updating Grammars (UAB with all other partners) Revisions and updating of the developed analytical frameworks in task 4.2 in response to the feed-backs received from the case studies in WP5 and WP6. • Months 21 to 48

WP4 PERSONS/MONTHS Partner number WP4 effort 1- UAB 48 2- HUTTON 4 3 – WU 24 4 – UT 24 5 – UiB 2 6 – JRC 4 7 – UNINA 10 8 – CA 18 9 – ITC 3 total 137