What can online data tell us about the labour market? Pawel Adrjan Starting at 11.30AM ESCoE COVID-19 ECONOMIC MEASUREMENT WEBINARS
What can online data tell us about the labour market? 11 June 2020 Pawel Adrjan Reamonn Lydon He Head of of EME MEA Research, Indeed Senior Advisor, Central Bank k of Ireland @Paw @P awel elAdrjan an @r @rlydon2
Online labour market data | Introduction Introduction • COVID-19 and measures to contain it have impacted the labour market • But how? • Standard surveys often lag market developments • Supplementary sources provide timely information on (some aspects of) the labour market during the crisis • Data on government benefit schemes • New, faster surveys • Private-sector data
Online labour market data | Introduction
Online labour market data | Introduction What can data on online vacancies and job search tell us about the labour market? 1. What data are available? Today’s presentation 2. How has COVID-19 impacted online indicators of labour supply and demand? 3. How are posted wages responding to current labour market conditions?
Online labour market data | Introduction Data Indeed is the world’s #1 job site (ComScore, March 2019) with over 250 million • monthly unique visitors (Google Analytics, September 2018) and presence in over 60 countries In the UK: • #1 job site (SimilarWeb, April 2020) • 500 thousand new jobs added each month (Q1 2020) • Nearly 6 out of 10 online jobseekers come to Indeed every month (ComScore, • February 2019) Almost 25 million total visits per month (SimilarWeb, April 2020) • 4.5 million CVs uploaded or updated in the 12 months to June 2020 •
Online labour market data | Introduction UK job postings down 61% on last year’s trend (as of 5 Jun) • Impact of crisis on job postings differs by occupation • Food preparation and service: down 89% • Nursing: down ‘only’ 18% • UK job postings hit harder and slower to recover than France, • Germany, Italy, US Impact of Role of industrial structure, lockdown restrictions and • COVID-19 government schemes on the labour market The tight labour market is over • But imbalances between demand from employers and • interest from jobseekers vary across occupations Employers and jobseekers in different sectors are • experiencing this labour market differently Compositional shifts have led to a rise in the average posted • wage
Online labour market data | Introduction References Impact of COVID-19 on vacancies Indeed Hiring Lab, www.hiringlab.org • Adrjan and Lydon (2020), “Covid-19 and the global labour market: Impact on job • postings”, Central Bank of Ireland Economic Letters , Vol. 2020. No. 3 Labour market tightness and wages Adrjan and Lydon (2019), “Clicks and jobs: measuring labour market tightness using • online data”, Central Bank of Ireland Economic Letters , Vol. 2019. No. 6 I would like to thank Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, Alassane-Anand Ndour and Jack Kennedy for excellent research assistance.
1. What data are available?
Online labour market data | Data Online labour market data 1. What data are available? 2. How are they generated? 3. How do they complement surveys published by statistical agencies?
Online labour market data | Introduction Job postings / vacancies à Indicator of labour demand What data Searches, clicks, CVs are available? à Potential labour supply Posted wages à Advertised price of labour
Online labour market data | Data Delivery driver Leeds
Online labour market data | Data Searches CVs Clicks on search results Job postings Posted wages
Online labour market data | Data Source: Adrjan and Lydon (2019)
Online labour market data | Data
Online labour market data | Data Source: UK version of Table 2 in Adrjan and Lydon (2019)
Online labour market data | Data Job titles matter Matching jobseekers to vacancies • Job search terms are often detailed: maths teacher, PE teacher, Spanish teacher • Marinescu and Wolthoff (2020): “the power of [job title] words in the matching • process” Policy applications • UK Migration Advisory Committee (2019): •
Online labour market data | Data Next: Impact of COVID-19 on the labour market Labour supply and demand • Vacancy trends (UK vs. other countries) • • Labour market tightness Wages •
2. How has COVID-19 impacted online indicators of labour supply and demand?
Online labour market data | Supply and demand Regular updates available at www.hiringlab.org/uk
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Supply and demand Are tighter restrictions associated with lower demand for new workers? Change in postings and severity of restrictions Change in postings and apple mobility trends -0.1 -0.1 Japan Japan Switzerland Switzerland Germany Germany -0.15 -0.15 Change in job posting trend Change in job posting trend Belgium Belgium -0.2 -0.2 Sweden Sweden Austria Austria US Hungary Netherlands Spain Finland -0.25 -0.25 Netherlands United States Finland Spain France -0.3 -0.3 Denmark France Ireland Ireland Italy Portugal -0.35 Portugal -0.35 Canada UK Canada United Kingdom -0.4 -0.4 -0.95 -0.85 -0.75 -0.65 -0.55 -0.45 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Change in apple mobility index (Feb average-v-March-May low) Blavatnik Stringency index (20 March to 20 April average) Hale et al. (2020) for stringency index Apple mobility index time-series to 10 May downloaded from kieranhealy.org
Online labour market data | Supply and demand Industrial composition matters Countries with more jobs with low ‘work-from-home potential’ saw bigger declines • Work-from-home potential by occupation based on Dingel and Neiman (2020) •
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Supply and demand Several possible reasons for different recovery trends across countries Approaches to easing lockdown restrictions may matter (rules, timing, sectors) • But we aren’t seeing job postings rise nearly as fast as the Apple mobility index • Other factors probably at play: • Uncertainty (health, economic) • Impact of government schemes on employer behaviour • Having to re-hire from unemployment vs. ability to recall employees from • furlough UK case: High jobseeker interest in sectors that are reopening (consistent with rising mobility) • But limited pick-up in job postings even in those sectors •
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Data Next: Potential labour supply Labour market tightness • ONS data • • Clicks on Indeed Wages •
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
Online labour market data | Supply and demand In Adrjan and Lydon (2019) we • measure labour market tightness using clicks per job posting Informative for wages over and • above traditional measures such as unemployment We can measure changes in • tightness during the COVID-19 crisis at the level of individual job titles
Online labour market data | Supply and demand
3. How are posted wages responding to current labour market conditions?
Online labour market data | Wages
Online labour market data | Wages
Online labour market data | Conclusions UK job postings down 61% on last year’s trend (as of 5 Jun) • Impact of crisis on job postings differs by occupation • Food preparation and service: down 89% • Nursing: down ‘only’ 18% • UK job postings hit harder and slower to recover than France, • Germany, Italy, US Impact of Role of industrial structure, lockdown restrictions and • COVID-19 government schemes on the labour market The tight labour market is over • But the relationship between demand from employers • and interest from jobseekers varies across occupations Employers and jobseekers in different sectors are • experiencing this labour market differently Compositional shifts have led to a rise in the average posted • wage
@PawelAdrjan padrjan@indeed.com Thank you hiringlab.org/uk/blog/category/coronavirus
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