SLIDE 1 Well Grubbed, Old Mole!
- pen source and the undermining of capitalism
Maurice Naftalin Wadlerfest, Edinburgh, 12 April 2016
SLIDE 2
Why This Talk?
SLIDE 3
Why This Talk?
SLIDE 4
We’re Living in the Future
SLIDE 5 We’re Living in the Future
- PostCapitalism - a Guide to Our Future, Paul Mason
SLIDE 6 We’re Living in the Future
- PostCapitalism - a Guide to Our Future, Paul Mason
- Wide-ranging economic and technological analysis
SLIDE 7 We’re Living in the Future
- PostCapitalism - a Guide to Our Future, Paul Mason
- Wide-ranging economic and technological analysis
- My summary:
SLIDE 8 We’re Living in the Future
- PostCapitalism - a Guide to Our Future, Paul Mason
- Wide-ranging economic and technological analysis
- My summary:
- 4½ Long Waves
SLIDE 9 We’re Living in the Future
- PostCapitalism - a Guide to Our Future, Paul Mason
- Wide-ranging economic and technological analysis
- My summary:
- 4½ Long Waves
- Info-Capitalism
SLIDE 10 We’re Living in the Future
- PostCapitalism - a Guide to Our Future, Paul Mason
- Wide-ranging economic and technological analysis
- My summary:
- 4½ Long Waves
- Info-Capitalism
- Where Are We Going?
SLIDE 11 “Old Mole”?
Karl Marx, The Eighteenth Brumaire
Europe will leap from its seat and exultantly exclaim: ‘Well grubbed, old mole!’
SLIDE 12
SLIDE 13
4½ Long Waves
SLIDE 14 4½ Long Waves
Capital builds up
SLIDE 15 4½ Long Waves
Capital builds up And invests in innovation
SLIDE 16 4½ Long Waves
Capital builds up And invests in innovation Productivity can’t keep pace
SLIDE 17 4½ Long Waves
Capital builds up And invests in innovation Productivity can’t keep pace Crisis: real wages fall
SLIDE 18 4½ Long Waves
Capital builds up And invests in innovation Productivity can’t keep pace Crisis: real wages fall Resistance stimulates innovation
SLIDE 19
The Stalled Fifth Wave
SLIDE 20 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
SLIDE 21 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
- falling profitability
SLIDE 22 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
- falling profitability
- end of Bretton Woods, gold standard
SLIDE 23 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
- falling profitability
- end of Bretton Woods, gold standard
- competitive inflation
SLIDE 24 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
- falling profitability
- end of Bretton Woods, gold standard
- competitive inflation
- state benefits replacing wages
SLIDE 25 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
- falling profitability
- end of Bretton Woods, gold standard
- competitive inflation
- state benefits replacing wages
- Enter…
SLIDE 26 The Stalled Fifth Wave
- As the fourth wave ended:
- falling profitability
- end of Bretton Woods, gold standard
- competitive inflation
- state benefits replacing wages
- Enter… Neoliberalism
SLIDE 27 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
SLIDE 28 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
SLIDE 29 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
Has it worked?
SLIDE 30 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
YES!!!
deunionisation
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
Has it worked?
SLIDE 31 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
YES!!!
deunionisation wage stagnation
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
Has it worked?
SLIDE 32 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
YES!!!
deunionisation wage stagnation financialization
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
Has it worked?
SLIDE 33 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
YES!!!
deunionisation wage stagnation financialization social atomisation
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
Has it worked?
SLIDE 34 Neoliberalism’s central project:
The Stalled Fifth Wave
NO!!
increased global inequality
“weak” growth at least to 2060 assuming: huge migration – & hugely greater productivity YES!!!
deunionisation wage stagnation financialization social atomisation
To break the economic
strength of organised labour
Has it worked?
SLIDE 35
OECD Expectations
SLIDE 36
But We Have Innovation!
…don’t we?
SLIDE 37
But We Have Innovation!
…don’t we?
SLIDE 38 But We Have Innovation!
…don’t we?
1947–rate growth
SLIDE 39 But We Have Innovation!
…don’t we?
1947–rate growth actual
growth
SLIDE 40 But We Have Innovation!
…don’t we?
1947–rate growth actual
growth 35% gap
SLIDE 41 But We Have Innovation!
And Britain is far, far worse!
…don’t we?
1947–rate growth actual
growth 35% gap
SLIDE 42
SLIDE 43
Where’s the Productivity?
SLIDE 44 Where’s the Productivity?
- 1. We’re stuck in a low-wage economy!
SLIDE 45 Where’s the Productivity?
- 1. We’re stuck in a low-wage economy!
- 2. New technologies are information-based
SLIDE 46 Where’s the Productivity?
- 1. We’re stuck in a low-wage economy!
- 2. New technologies are information-based
- increasing proportion of the value of
the most important goods and services
SLIDE 47 Where’s the Productivity?
- 1. We’re stuck in a low-wage economy!
- 2. New technologies are information-based
- increasing proportion of the value of
the most important goods and services
- information has no marginal cost of
production
SLIDE 48 Where’s the Productivity?
- 1. We’re stuck in a low-wage economy!
- 2. New technologies are information-based
- increasing proportion of the value of
the most important goods and services
- information has no marginal cost of
production
- can’t be valued by classical economics
SLIDE 49
Was Marx Right After All?
“If machinery lasted for ever, if it did not itself consist of transitory material which must be reproduced… it would blow sky-high the system based on labour values.”
Fragment on Machines (1858)
SLIDE 50 Info-Capitalism Now
- Information price sustained artificially – monopolies, DRM
- Market forces pushed into new areas (social relationships,
personal micro-services, financialization)
- Zero-hours contracts, portfolio careers – The Precariat
- Unprecedented and growing inequality
- Atomised society
Neoliberalism + Information Technology =
“Info-Capitalism”
SLIDE 51 Info-Capitalism – the Future
Unprecedented systemic crises:
- climatic
- demographic
- financial
The Case for Rational Panic
SLIDE 52 Is There An Alternative?
Systemic crises to late feudalism:
- Black Death, rise of banking, pillaging of
Americas, printing press Capitalism grew up inside feudalism
- Could we help shape something analogous?
- Our goals:
- Sustainability
- Material wellbeing
- Reduced/meaningful work
- Reintegrated society
SLIDE 53
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 54
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 55
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 56
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 57
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 58
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 59
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 60
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 61
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 62
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 63
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 64
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 65
Herb Simon – Organisations and Markets (1991)
SLIDE 66
Notes Towards a Transition
SLIDE 67 Notes Towards a Transition
Model the world of relationships
SLIDE 68 Notes Towards a Transition
Model the world of relationships
Break up monopolies
SLIDE 69 Notes Towards a Transition
Model the world of relationships
Break up monopolies
Socialize the finance system
SLIDE 70 Notes Towards a Transition
Model the world of relationships
Break up monopolies
Introduce a
Universal
Basic Income
Socialize the finance system
SLIDE 71
Liberating the 1%
SLIDE 72
Liberating the 1%
“They may not welcome it, but they’ll be happier in a better world”
SLIDE 73
Liberating the 1%
“They may not welcome it, but they’ll be happier in a better world”
There is good news.
The 99% are coming to your rescue.
Postcapitalism will set you free.