WDC LMI Update 2017 Update on Hawaiis Workforce Statewide Outlook - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SLIDE 1

WDC LMI Update

2017 Update on Hawaii’s Workforce

SLIDE 2

Statewide Outlook by Industries

Industry Sectors with the Highest Projected Growth (QCEW): Industry Sectors with the Highest Projected Growth (Non QCEW):

NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 2016 Earnings 2016 GRP 2016 Jobs Multiplier 2016 Earnings Multiplier 722511 Full-Service Restaurants 34,897 37,380 2,483 7% $28,538 $18,062 $1,027,185,051 $1,257,648,123 1.49 1.83 561330 Professional Employer Organizations 16,948 19,115 2,167 13% $43,342 $27,432 $730,442,454 $826,997,554 1.54 1.59 721110 Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 38,246 39,343 1,097 3% $54,237 $34,327 $2,111,611,609 $3,728,882,266 2.07 1.93 621491 HMO Medical Centers 461 1,498 1,037 225% $101,520 $64,253 $127,941,817 $137,058,707 2.68 1.78 238210 Electrical Contractors and Other Wiring Installation Contractors 4,624 5,400 776 17% $87,810 $55,576 $459,591,717 $570,584,204 2.09 1.63 95,175 102,736 7,561 8% $45,217 $28,618 $4,456,772,648 $6,521,170,853 NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 2016 Earnings 2016 GRP 2016 Jobs Multiplier 2016 Earnings Multiplier 901200 Federal Government, Military 58,274 59,698 1,424 2% $60,570 $38,335 $3,550,746,198 $7,677,298,778 2.57 2.29 901199 Federal Government, Civilian, Excluding Postal Service 124 173 49 40% $73,686 $46,637 $3,271,116,008 $4,059,413,588 2.48 1.71 58,398 59,871 1,473 3% $60,602 $38,356 $6,821,862,206 $11,736,712,366

SLIDE 3

Statewide Outlook by Occupations

• Occupations with the Highest Projected Growth (QCEW):
• Occupations with the Highest Projected Growth (Non-QCEW):

SOC Description 2016 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Openings

• Avg. Hourly

Earnings COL Adjusted Median Hourly Earnings 35-3031 Waiters and Waitresses 15,880 16,483 911 6% 3,249 $15.61 $7.33 29-1141 Registered Nurses 11,423 11,951 777 7% 1,605 $43.34 $28.25 35-2014 Cooks, Restaurant 8,572 9,045 710 9% 1,409 $15.15 $8.70 35-3021 Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 12,162 12,556 550 5% 1,749 $10.71 $5.82 47-2061 Construction Laborers 4,962 5,241 477 10% 782 $25.10 $16.04 52,999 55,277 3,426 7% 8,794 $21.25 $12.51 SOC Description 2016 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Openings

• Avg. Hourly

Earnings COL Adjusted Median Hourly Earnings 55-9999 Military occupations 58,622 59,698 1,424 2% 5,590 $19.16 $11.15 45-2092 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 645 705 58 9% 114 $13.26 $8.23 43-6014 Secretaries and Administrative Assistants, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 1,823 1,871 47 3% 106 $19.20 $11.91 43-9061 Office Clerks, General 1,879 1,921 41 2% 165 $15.63 $9.65 37-2011 Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 1,071 1,103 36 3% 101 $12.68 $7.54 64,041 65,298 1,605 3% 6,075 $18.89 $11.04

SLIDE 4

Other Data Sources

• Statewide Forecast Update – UHERO – March 3, 2017
• Hawaii’s healthy labor market conditions will continue. Much of the recent hiring has been in

accommodations and food services.

• Health care has also seen strong job growth, expanding by nearly 3% last year.
• The next wave of resort and retail related construction and the ramping up of single-family home building

will sustain activity near its current level through 2019.

• Federal government hiring faces uncertain prospects, now that President Trump has issues and across-the-

board hiring freeze. While the Department of Defense has clarified that public Naval shipyards are exempt, the impact on other positions remain unclear.

SLIDE 5

Risk Factors Could Impact Hawaii’s Near Term Economic Future

• Exposure from Policy
• impact health care, government employment, defense spending, immigration.
• Financial Exposure
• The continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar increases the cost of foreign visitors to Hawaii,

making other foreign travel destinations financially more attractive.

• Increasing interest rates further strengthen the dollar as a investment from foreign investors.
• Exposure from Global Factors
• Continuing Global Debt Crisis
• Terrorism and political instability

SLIDE 6

Identified Target Industries:

• Agriculture
• Information Technology
• Health Care
• Construction
• Shipyard – Federal Government, Military/Water Transportation

SLIDE 7

Agriculture Sector

NAICS Description 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 2016 GRP 2016 Payrolled Business Locations 2016 Taxes 11 Crop and Animal Production 16,093 16,509 416 3% $29,479 $18,658 $533,738,669 458 $43,657,141

Regional Trends – Projected Job Growth by County

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change United States 3,596,174 3,684,397 88,223 2.5% State of Hawaii 16,093 16,509 416 2.6% Honolulu County, HI 3,909 4,034 125 3.2% Hawaii County, HI 7,671 8,015 344 4.5% Maui County, HI 3,022 2,964 (58) (1.9%) Kauai County, HI 1,491 1,496 5 0.3% Unemployed (10/2016) 266

SLIDE 8

Agriculture – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii

Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii County, HI Maui County, HI Kauai County, HI 11-9013 Farmers, Ranchers, and Other Agricultural Managers 1,732,705 5,888 916 3,510 988 473 45-2092 Farmworkers and Laborers, Crop, Nursery, and Greenhouse 842,057 4,067 1,166 1,656 854 391 45-3011 Fishers and Related Fishing Workers 75,543 1,243 499 383 195 165 39-2021 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers 90,299 613 100 424 55 34 45-2093 Farmworkers, Farm, Ranch, and Aquacultural Animals 77,071 403 122 153 96 32 Total 2,817,674 12,213 2,804 6,126 2,187 1,096

SLIDE 9

Information Sector

NAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 51 Information $1,918,451,919 $218,677,296 $811,016,135 11,499 11,791 292 3% $69,194 $43,794

Regional Trends – Projected Change in Jobs by County

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change United States 3,407,071 3,529,102 122,031 3.6% State of Hawaii 11,499 11,791 292 2.5% Honolulu County, HI 9,172 9,319 147 1.6% Hawaii County, HI 1,000 1,120 120 12.0% Maui County, HI 913 929 16 1.8% Kauai County, HI 384 396 12 3.1% Unemployed (10/2016) 155

SLIDE 10

Information – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii

Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii County, HI Maui County, HI Kauai County, HI 49-2022 Telecommunications Equipment Installers and Repairers, Except Line Installers 183,360 779 601 89 61 25 43-4051 Customer Service Representatives 166,260 578 470 55 37 13 27-2012 Producers and Directors 114,352 567 472 35 45 14 41-3099 Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 159,822 556 424 60 47 22 49-9052 Telecommunications Line Installers and Repairers 79,525 406 290 62 34 19 Total 703,320 2,885 2,258 301 224 95

SLIDE 11

Health Care Sector

NAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 62 Health Care and Social Assistance $5,229,048,372 $137,244,119 $4,939,652,698 79,642 84,536 4,894 6% $61,150 $38,703 Unemployed (10/2016) 1,146

Industry Change Summary

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 2016 Average Earnings United States 21,165,561 22,624,958 1,459,397 7% $54,742 Hawaii 79,642 84,536 4,894 6% $61,150 Honolulu County, HI 60,579 64,302 3,723 6% $64,372 Hawaii County, HI 8,956 9,507 551 6% $46,012 Maui County, HI 6,940 7,321 381 5% $54,025 Kauai County, HI 3,154 3,387 233 7% $58,146

SLIDE 12

Health Care – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 in the State of Hawaii

Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii County, HI Maui County, HI Kauai County, HI 29-1141 Registered Nurses 2,369,146 8,226 6,934 655 368 269 39-9021 Personal Care Aides 2,097,639 6,645 4,457 1,224 619 343 31-1011 Home Health Aides 1,190,099 5,518 4,297 668 375 177 31-1014 Nursing Assistants 1,376,983 4,679 3,622 474 293 290 31-9092 Medical Assistants 597,543 2,907 2,328 261 235 83 Total 7,631,410 27,976 21,639 3,282 1,890 1,162

SLIDE 13

Construction Sector

NAICS Description 2016 GRP 2016 Taxes 2016 Earnings 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs 2015 - 2018 Change 2015 - 2018 % Change Current Total Earnings COL Adjusted Total Current Earnings 23 Construction $4,373,364,551 $55,824,120 $3,522,276,179 46,205 50,791 4,586 10% $72,466 $45,865 Unemployed (10/2016) 3,447 Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 2016 Average Earnings United States 9,948,900 10,351,581 402,681 4% $53,876 Hawaii 46,205 50,791 4,586 10% $72,466 Honolulu County, HI 31,836 35,643 3,807 12% $79,282 Hawaii County, HI 6,337 6,597 260 4% $54,266 Maui County, HI 5,625 5,942 317 6% $60,378 Kauai County, HI 2,389 2,599 210 9% $55,875

SLIDE 14

Construction – Projected Top Occupations For 2018 For the State of Hawaii

Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii County, HI Maui County, HI Kauai County, HI 47-2061 Construction Laborers 1,621,331 7,047 4,771 1,073 755 448 47-2031 Carpenters 1,277,730 6,489 3,973 1,035 1,025 454 47-2111 Electricians 602,511 3,594 2,750 332 414 96 47-2141 Painters, Construction and Maintenance 537,358 2,776 1,883 385 327 179 47-1011 First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers 582,235 2,519 1,724 337 324 134 Total 4,621,165 22,425 15,102 3,163 2,845 1,311

SLIDE 15

Shipyard – DOD (6 digit NAICS)

Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 2016 Average Earnings United States 1,955,000 1,950,360 (4,640) 0% $47,046 Hawaii 58,274 59,698 1,424 2% $60,570 Honolulu County, HI 55,136 56,496 1,360 2% $62,689 Hawaii County, HI 1,365 1,393 28 2% $21,621 Maui County, HI 1,155 1,175 20 2% $22,434 Kauai County, HI 618 634 16 3% $29,462

Industry Summary for Federal Government, Military

58,622 2.4% $60,570 Jobs (2016) % Change (2015-2018)

• Avg. Earnings Per Job (2016)

146% above National average Nation: -0.2% Nation: $47,046

Top Occupations – Change (Only Non-QCEW)

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii County, HI Maui County, HI Kauai County, HI 55-9999 Military occupations (4,640) 1,424 1,360 28 20 16 Total (4,640) 1,424 1,360 28 20 16

SLIDE 16

Private Shipyard – Water Transportation

Industry Summary for Support Activities for Water Transportation

1,311 6.3% $133,317 Jobs (2016) % Change (2015-2018)

• Avg. Earnings Per Job (2016)

188% above National average Nation: 1.9% Nation: $82,677 Region 2015 Jobs 2018 Jobs Change % Change 2016 Average Earnings United States 103,179 105,102 1,923 2% $82,677 Hawaii 1,275 1,355 80 6% $133,317 Honolulu County, HI 1,120 1,183 63 6% $136,747 Hawaii County, HI 59 74 15 25% $134,119 Maui County, HI 71 77 6 8% $90,241 Kauai County, HI 24 21 (3) (13%) $99,836

Top Occupations - 2018 Jobs

SOC Code Description United States Hawaii Honolulu County, HI Hawaii County, HI Maui County, HI Kauai County, HI 53-7062 Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 20,114 220 199 <10 10 <10 53-5021 Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels 7,007 129 102 <10 16 <10 43-5011 Cargo and Freight Agents 2,884 78 57 12 <10 <10 53-7121 Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders 4,474 73 66 <10 <10 <10 53-7051 Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 10,225 62 57 <10 <10 <10 Total 44,704 562 481 35 37 <10

SLIDE 17

Conclusions between 2016 to 2018

• Hawaii’s Real GDP is projected to grow approximately 3.7%.
• Hawaii’s employment is projected to grow by 1.6%
• The targeted economic areas identified by Director Takayama are projected

to grow faster than Hawaii’s overall job growth.

SLIDE 18

Identified Target Industries:

• Agriculture Projected to Grow by 416 Jobs or 3%
• Information Projected to grow by 292 jobs or 3%
• Health Care Projected to grow by 4,894 jobs or 6%
• Construction Projected to grow by 4,586 jobs or 10%
• Shipyard – Federal Government, Military/Water Transportation
• Federal DOD (Not just the shipyard) Projected to grow by 1.424 jobs or 2.4%
• Private Shipyard Projected to grow by 80 jobs or 6.3%

SLIDE 19

Other Good News: Alterative Measures of Underemployment

U-1 U-2 U-3 U-4 U-5 U-6 2003 1.4 2 4.3 4.5 5.2 8.9 2004 1

• 28.57%

1.4

• 30.00%

3.4

• 20.93%

3.6

• 20.00%

4.5

• 13.46%

7.5

• 15.73%

2005 0.9

• 10.00%

1

• 28.57%

2.9

• 14.71%

3.1

• 13.89%

3.7

• 17.78%

6.4

• 14.67%

2006 0.7

• 22.22%

1 0.00% 2.7

• 6.90%

2.8

• 9.68%

3.5

• 5.41%

6.2

• 3.13%

2007 0.8 14.29% 1.1 10.00% 2.9 7.41% 3 7.14% 3.6 2.86% 6.4 3.23% 2008 1.1 37.50% 1.8 63.64% 4.2 44.83% 4.4 46.67% 5.2 44.44% 8.8 37.50% 2009 3.5 218.18% 4.3 138.89% 7.4 76.19% 8 81.82% 9.1 75.00% 15.5 76.14% 2010 3.9 11.43% 3.8

• 11.63%

7

• 5.41%

7.9

• 1.25%

8.9

• 2.20%

16.9 9.03% 2011 4.5 15.38% 4.2 10.53% 7.3 4.29% 7.8

• 1.27%

9 1.12% 15.1

• 10.65%

2012 3.3

• 26.67%

3.2

• 23.81%

6

• 17.81%

6.4

• 17.95%

7.5

• 16.67%

12.8

• 15.23%

2013 2.4

• 27.27%

2.1

• 34.38%

4.8

• 20.00%

5.5

• 14.06%

6.6

• 12.00%

11.5

• 10.16%

2014 1.9

• 20.83%

1.8

• 14.29%

4.4

• 8.33%

4.7

• 14.55%

5.6

• 15.15%

10.2

• 11.30%

2015 1.5

• 21.05%

1.6

• 11.11%

3.7

• 15.91%

4.1

• 12.77%

5.3

• 5.36%

9.7

• 4.90%

2016 1.2

• 20.00%

1.4

• 12.50%

3.2

• 13.51%

3.6

• 12.20%

4.6

• 13.21%

8.3

• 14.43%

SLIDE 20

What are the Implication for the WDC and Hawaii’s Public Workforce System

• Current Unemployment Rate is low, about 3%. Projections and data suggest

Hawaii’s GDP and employment will experience positive growth through 2018.

• In the past, when we got closer to full there is increased need for basic employability

skill

• We are putting workers back into industry sectors that are cyclical that still suffer

from the vulnerabilities of the lack of economic diversification

• Kind of feel that the exposures that were identified earlier feel more pressing.
• Businesses need new sources of labor – Employees’ market.
• Economic growth can be limited by worker shortages

SLIDE 21

Questions and Discussion