香港未來之路
公衆論壇
WAYS FORWARD: Let’s Talk & Listen
A Public Forum for Hong Kong 2019.11.16
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WAYS FORWARD: Lets Talk & Listen A Public Forum for Hong - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
WAYS FORWARD: Lets Talk & Listen A Public Forum for Hong Kong 2019.11.16 1 Hannes Siebert + Anna Wu 3 -21 Authentic Dialogue:
公衆論壇
A Public Forum for Hong Kong 2019.11.16
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Hannes Siebert + 胡紅玉Anna Wu Clem McCartney + 紀佩雅Puja Kapai Michael Frank Alar + Thomas Fann 池衍昌Chi Hin Cheong Noppatjak Attanon + 麥嘉晉Raymond Mak
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真對話:如何推動變革及化解衝突 Authentic Dialogue: Promoting Change & Resolving Conflict 設計對話的考慮因素 Design Considerations for Dialogue 對話實驗室 Dialogue Lab
Dialogue in Action: Case Studies
Nonviolent Communication: Connection Across Differences
Social Media: Between Angels & Demons ……………3-21 ………….22-45 ………….46-88 ……….89-107 ……..108-129
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Societies in transition: managing change, securing peace & restructuring
Hannes Siebert
WAYS FORWARD: Let’s Talk & Listen
A public forum for Hong Kong 16 November 2019
broken? Who should be part of the process to change it? Who is affected by it? Who has the power to change it? What are the change instruments? Who should decide? How do we decide?
relationships? Self-mediation mechanisms and processes?
at different tracks – 1, 1.5, 2 and 3
Zimbabwe – successes and failures
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MULTI-LAYERED MULTI-SECTORIAL MULTI-DIMENTIONAL PROCESS COMPONENTS
TRACK 1 TRACK 2 TRACK 3 Ceasefire Negotiations Constitutional Change; Referendum; new Social PactDialogue & Mediation in CHANGE PROCESSES
Local/National Peace Structures Inside Mediation Self-Mediation Structure Third-Party Mediation
Bi-lateral Negotiations & Interim Arrangements Issue, Frameworks and Needs-based Dialogues; Track 1.5 & 2 Dialogues initiated; Community Dialogues Humanitarian Support and Restoring Essential Services Elections New Parliament New Legislation State Reform Military Integration/ SSR Transitional Justice & Reconciliation Reconstruction & Development Formally MandatedNational Dialogues
Framework for Constitutional Change Mandate Agenda Composition Decision- making Principles & Values Process & Structure Securing the Process, Building Confidence and Trust; Safety Nets & Non-Formal Dialogues; Peace Infrastructures; Peace BuildingLebanon
by France, Syria and Israel in past 100 years
1943
Sunni & Druze
negotiations since 2008
1978, ‘82, ‘93, ‘96 and 2006
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Yemen National Dialogue Conference
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Yemen
Yemen: Structure
the National Dialogue Conference
Committee
(nominated/approved)
Consensus Committee
(leadership com, chairs
WG, 10 nominated by President)
Plenary: Opening Meeting (2 weeks)
· 565 participants: representing Political Parties (GPC, JMP, et al), Southern Movement, Houthis, Women, Youth, Civil Society; 50% from South; 30% women
Opening speeches; to agree
procedures; elect committees
Groups (2 months)
Group
Group
Group
building)
Group
Group
& Freedoms)
Group
ment)
Group
Justice)
Group
Institut.)
Group
Govern.)
Meeting (1 months)
· to review state
discussion in working groups
Groups (2 months)
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Group
Final Meeting (1 months)
· to finalize all
issues · approval
final report
closing session
for Norms and Discipline General Secretariat
by voting
Plenary and Working Groups:
Committee:
& proposals
majority vote
majority vote
75% consensus
Myanmar Union Peace Conference
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Myanmar
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Myanmar National Political Dialog Stakeholders
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Nepal’s Change Process
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PARLIAMENT
Implementation (Gov) Laws Constitutional
Political Actors Dialogue - POLAD
Constitutional Reform Legislative Reform
RELATIONSHIPS
Pedagogical Policy
Reconciliation Economy
ZCC
Constitutional Implementation Parliamentary Committees Constitutional Implementation & Economy Joint Task Groups Local Level Dialogues National Peace and Reconciliation Commission (NPRC) Sectoral Dialogues
Constitutional, Economic, POLAD, etc.ZIMBABWE DIALOGUE & CHANGE PROCESS
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contradictory to the expectations of the participants.
impact.
contract
change instruments:
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Clem McCartney
WAYS FORWARD: Let’s Talk & Listen
A public forum for Hong Kong 16 November 2019
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Communication is always happening but it is not always effective
space for reflection
It suits some people → Create time & space → Recognise complexity → Joint co-operative analysis & problem solving → Respectful listening
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Every situation requires its own dialogue process
But there are 3 basic assumptions:
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A process that encourages willingness to test new thinking has the following characteristics
It should
to be more flexible
taken into account
facing
Are we ready for that?
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Pyramid of group interactions in the dialogue process
Joint action Speculative problem solving Exploring issues/Joint analysis Mutual understanding Contact
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Does it help to have a framework agreement for entering talks? (1)
and shared problems
and
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Does it help to have a framework agreement for entering talks? (2)
On the other hand:
entering into talks
simply acknowledges the basis on which parties are participating
Is it worth considering? Feasible? Who drafts it?
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Puja Kapai
WAYS FORWARD: Let’s Talk & Listen
A public forum for Hong Kong 16 November 2019
Outcome-
Incident/issue-specific Reconciliatory
Process-
Transformative: of people, discourses/narratives Longer-term: Looking back in order to move forward, looking at history, power, place and relations to inform visions for the future
Legitimacy Acknowledgement Accountability Empowerment through knowledge, participation, contribution Deliberative & iterative process Inter & Intra- group trust-building Co-creation of meaning, understanding, narratives, solutions Preventive peacebuilding cannot succeed if it excludes
Total population: 7,336,585 Non-Chinese population New immigrants from mainland China: 165,956 (2.3%) Other Chinese persons: 6,586,246 (89.8%)
Other ethnic minorities: 262,588 (3.6%) Foreign domestic helpers: 321,795 (4.4%) * Permanent residents Chinese population Source: Hong Kong Census 2016
0-19 yrs 15.97% 20-34 yrs 20.89% 35-64 yrs 47.29% 65+ yrs 15.85% Female 53.99% Male 46.01%
Source: Hong Kong Census 2016
Puja Kapai, Future of Democratisation in Hong Kong, Centre for Comparative and Public Law, HKU (2018 & 2019)
0.4% 2.1% 6.5% 3.1% 3.8% 2.1% 11.9% 31.7% 24.0% 27.5% 59.5% 64.4% 50.4% 58.4% 49.1% 37.9% 21.6% 11.4% 14.5% 19.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Hong Konger Hong Kong Chinese Chinese citizen World citizen Autonomous individual Strongly disagree Disagree Agree Strongly agree 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% HongKonger Hong Kong Chinese Chinese citizen World citizen Autonomous individual 18-35 yrs 35-65 yrs 66+ yrs
Self identification: complementary; younger, more HongKonger
Hierarchies of Race & Acceptance Intergroup & Intragroup Biases
Source: Puja Kapai, Status of Ethnic Minorities in Hong Kong 1997- 2014, Centre for Comparative and Public Law, HKU & The Zubin Foundation (2015). Graphics: The Zubin Foundation (2015)
Highest bias level Lowest bias level Gender-Career Gender-Science Chinese-South Asian Hong Kong-Mainland
& direct engagement matter but preparation and process are key drivers for effective and meaningful outcomes
Levels of Intolerance (2019)
10.3% 16.5% 20.6% 37.1% 42.5% 50.4% 59.4% 87.7%
Puja Kapai, Future Directions in Hong Kong’s Governance, Centre for Comparative and Public Law, HKU (2018 & 2019)
Language Barriers
Source: Puja Kapai & Gunjali Singh, #HongKonger, Centre for Comparative and Public Law, HKU & The Zubin Foundation (2018). Graphics: The Zubin Foundation (2018)
Education Employment Poverty Housing Law enforcement and policing Social exclusion Positions of leadership Power dynamics Political participation Exercise & enjoyment of civil, political, economic, social, cultural rights Citizenship & belonging
interactions
Democracy are not something we attain - they are performative.
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Michael Frank A. Alar
Independent Consultant on Conflict Transformation, Dialogues and Peace Processes
WAYS FORWARD: Let’s Talk & Listen
A public forum for Hong Kong 16 November 2019
Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess Co-Directors, Conflict Research Consortium University of Colorado http://www.colorado.edu/conflict/transform/dialog.htm
a form of conversation & a form of relating to people that differs from mediation, negotiation, and debate in that it seeks to inform and learn, but not persuade or resolve anything. Progress … requires the breakdown of stereotypes, a willingness to listen and respect others' views, and a willingness to open oneself to new ideas. Dialogue allows this to happen, often before people are willing to sit down to discuss "resolution," "consensus,"
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Locating Dialogue in the Conflict Resolution Spectrum
Sources: http://www.ciian.org/module/spectrum.htm http://www.partnersglobal.org/how/conflict-resolution
DIALOGUE
Negotiation ……..…..….. Mediation …………..……. Arbitration ….…...…… Adjudication High individual control……………………………………….Low/no individual control
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Manila
Philippine Armed Forces
Christian Militia Muslim Militia
Civilian
Home Defense Forces
Moro National Liberation Front
Philippine Government Christians
Muslims (13 Tribes) Clans
Organisation of Islamic Conference
(Saudia Arabia, Libya, Indonesia, Malaysia)
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Espesor, Jovanie (Jul 2017). “Waltzing with the powerful: Understanding NGOs in a game of power in conflict-ridden Mindanao”; https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318209678_Waltzing_with_the_powerful_Understan ding_NGOs_in_a_game_of_power_in_conflict-ridden_Mindanao
MILF
MNLF
Moro Islamic Liberation Front AFP BIAF
Armed Forces of the Philippine Moro National Liberation Front Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces 53
Manila
Government Integration Position MILF Independence Position
common ground
Greater Autonomy
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Track I Track III Track II
Type of Actors Approaches to Building Peace
Top Leadership
leaders with high visibility
Middle-range Leadership
Grassroots Leadership
by highly visible single mediator; ceasefire a focus
workshops, training in conflict resolution, peace commissions, insider- partial teams
grassroots training, prejudice reduction, psychosocial trauma work
Pyramid of Peacebuilding: Actors & Approaches
Derived from John Paul Lederach, Building Peace: Sustainable Reconciliation in Divided Societies (Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1997), 39. 55
Track I Track III Track II
Type of Actors Approaches to Building Peace
Top Leadership
Middle-range Leadership
Grassroots Leadership
& peacebuilding trainings
community development
Pyramid of Peacebuilding: Mindanao Conflict
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Track I Track III Track II
Type of Actors Approaches to Building Peace
Top Leadership
businessmen, eminent persons
Middle-range Leadership
Grassroots Leadership
support
Pyramid of Peacebuilding: South Sudan Conflict
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Signing of Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro 27 March 2014
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38th Bishops-Ulama Conference
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Waging Peace Conference
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Bringing Track I and Track II Together
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Clan Conflict Mediation
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Dividers Dividers
Connectors
Connectors
Connectors
Connectors Connectors Connectors
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GPH Peace Panel (5 members) MILF Peace Panel (5 members)
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process
MILF Central Committee Office of the President
Peace Panel Secretariat (10 staff) Technical Committee Technical Committee Sub-Committee on Agenda Setting (5 members) Sub-Committee on Agenda Setting (5 members) Sub-Committee on Cessation of Hostilities (5 members) Sub-Committee on Cessation of Hostilities (5 members) Peace Panel Secretariat (5 staff)
Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Moro Islamic Liberation Front
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GPH Peace Panel (5) MILF Peace Panel (5)
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process
MILF Central Committee Office of the President
Peace Panel Secretariat (14) Concept (3) Peace Panel Secretariat (5) Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Territory (5) Resources (5) Governance (5) Concept (3) Territory (3) Resources (3) Governance (3) Technical Working Groups (TWG) Technical Working Groups (TWG)
Malaysian Facilitator
Moro Islamic Liberation Front
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ICG Phase: GPH-MILF Peace Talks Set-Up (2010-2014)
GPH Peace Panel (5) MILF Peace Panel (5)
Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process
MILF Central Committee Office of the President
Peace Panel Secretariat (13) Power sharing (4) Peace Panel Secretariat (3) Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Wealth sharing (4) Normalization (8) Power sharing (4) Wealth sharing (4) Normalization (4) Technical Working Groups (TWG) Technical Working Groups (TWG)
Malaysian facilitator
Legal Team (4) Legal Team (4)
International Contact Group
Moro Islamic Liberation Front
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Thomas Fann Chairperson of Bersih 2.0
WAYS FORWARD: Let’s Talk & Listen
A public forum for Hong Kong 16 November 2019
General Elections 14 – 9th May 2018
2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2019 2018 2007
Official Launch
Bersih 1 Rally
10.11.07
Bersih 2 Rally
09.07.11
Bersih 3 Rally
29.04.12
Bersih 4 Rally
29-30.08.15
Bersih 5 Convoy /Rally
19.11.16
Relaunch as Bersih 2.0 GE13
2008
GE12 GE14 People’s Tribunal DART Delineation Challenge
FORMATION CONFRONTATION ENGAGEMENT
ERC
social-economic backgrounds, 93 NGOs
legitimate democratic process.
integrity and allows us to reach out to all sides.
and consultation with endorsing NGOs and other stakeholders.
a restrictive and intimidating environment emboldened the masses.
parties, student groups, 93 other NGOs, global Malaysian support and importantly, government
rights guaranteed under Federal Constitution, non-violent protests
every protests, yellow t-shirts, strong chairpersons & Steering Committees (elections)
papers/reports, voters awareness campaigns
10 November 2007
4 demands
for soldiers & police
9 July 2011
Malay, more others 8 Demands:
20 April 2012
cities + global
confirmed police violence 8 Demands plus
before G£13
29/30 August 2015
Najib’s account
Demands:
1 Oct to 19 Nov 2016
rally on 19 Nov
Demands:
democracy
Sarawak
Before GE14 Securing Reforms in Parliament After GE14 Demanding Reforms
within the limited legal space it has in order to get its message
support we can do nothing.
undertaken…
Train Object Sue
池衍昌
Nonviolent Communication:Talking across Differences
Chi Hin Cheong
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池
香港未來之路 公衆論壇 2019年11月16日
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接受懲罰
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Qu Quick ick Fa Facts cts (Hong
ng stu tudent ents: s: social cial medi edia ti time) me)
data source: Hong Kong Paediatric Foundation, July 2018
ate and shar are e infor
mati tion
y if it matche tches s their ir beliefs iefs
mfort t zone ne with h no outsi tside ders rs
tion
al conten ntent, t, hate e spee eech
gina nalize lize or bully ly in-gr grou
p membe bers rs with h differen erent t views ws
d any nego goti tiation ation
photo source: CNN, August 2019
a pl plat atfo form rm for
all
t purposes and topics
cipati ation
sted & representati tational l res esul ults ts
t from authoriti ties s in
der to dr
e impa pact
Unbiased iased Opinion nion
use onlin ine random samplin ing surve veys s to track ck public ic
inio ions s on select cted topic ic
Influe luenti ntial al Views ws
initia iate te quali litat tative ive and const stru ruct ctive ive debates tes / discu cussio ssion with limit ited rule les
Public lic Senti timen ment
conduct ct pulse lse check ck on publi lic c sentim timent level l to an issue via open
ine polli ling
tical al positi tioni
g of initi tiato ator
protec ecti tion
rance
ely respecte pected d & t transpare sparent nt topic pic selecti tion n mecha hani nism
r rules es (fact-based, no personal attack etc.)
ts from m both camps ps
Bridging the political divide
公衆論壇
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