Hong Kong International AIRPORT AvRDP Phase I Progress Peter PW LI - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Hong Kong International AIRPORT AvRDP Phase I Progress

Peter PW LI

Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong, China

WMO WWRP 4th International Symposium

• n Nowcasting and Very-short-range Forecast

Hong Kong, China 26 July 2016

Hong Kong International airport (HKG)

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Subtropical in Northern Hemisphere 22° 18′ 32″ N 113° 54′ 52″ E Environment: reclaimed island surrounded by water next to high mountain (~ 1km height)

One of the busiest airports in the World (2015) Flights: 1112/ day 68 flights/hr at peak hours 2 Runway system 07L/ 25R 07R/ 25L

Major impacting weather at HKG

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Mean Number of Days with Specified Weather Phenomenon at Hong Kong International Airport (January 1998 - December 2010)

Fog Lightning Thunderstorm

Major impacting weather Convection and Thunderstorm

Low Level Windshear and Turbulence Frequency distribution by month

• Significant windshear:

1 in 500 flights

• Significant turbulence:

1 in 2000 flights

1st peak 2nd peak

1st peak -> northeast monsoon 2nd peak -> typhoon season

• Winds blowing across terrain

(terrain-induced)

• Sea breeze
• Gust fronts
• Microbursts
• Low-level jets

Under non-rainy weather (~90%) Under convective weather (~10%) < 1%

AMOS

RVR Anemometer Forward Scatterer Pressure, temperature sensor, rain gauge

HKG

RVR and Forward scatterer

Airport Observations Nowcasting system and model ATM data Weather Radar (conventional

• r Doppler)

Geostationary Satellite Wind profiler LIDAR Anemometer Visibility sensor AMDAR/ACARS data Other observations Nowcasting system Micro/mesoscale NWP Regional model PIREP Aircraft data ATM capacity data Air traffic data ADS-B (since 2016) HKG                

HKGA AvRDP IOP data, including Airport Observations, Nowcasting facility, modelling facility and ATM data

HKG 1st IOP for Convection in Northern Hemisphere (May – Sep 15)

• A number of significant convection cases
• A few typhoon cases
• Observational data
• Nowcasting data
• Mesoscale model data
• NWC + NWP blended data
• ATM data

– Airport Capacity data

HKO IOP Data and Data Manual

Real-time airport air traffic data

HKG 2nd IOP for Convection in Northern Hemisphere (mid May – mid Sep 16)

• A number of significant convection cases
• One TC case
• Observational data
• Nowcasting data
• Mesoscale model data
• NWC + NWP blended data
• ADS-B within 400km of HKIA
• ATM data

– Airport Capacity data – Air traffic data

• Completed study:

– Fine-tuned Airport Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (ATNS) adjusted thresholds to fit ATC requirements

• On going Studies:

– Airport Departure Rate – Aircraft delay using Big Data technology – Aircraft Avoidance study using ADS-B data

ADB-S collected (prepared for Phase II)

ABS-B overlaid with weather radar and satellite

Effect of Significant Convection to Capacity

Types of effect of significant convection

Capacity Forecast

+ Trajectory Based SigConv F/C + ADS-B flight position + … Probability t bability to be affected b ected by weather ther

Air Traffic Data

Maximum Airport Acceptance Rate

Time Range Data Granularity Number of records/images Flight Information 20150506- 20150531 13,470

• No. of distinct flights: 890
• No. of distinct destination code: 178

Radar Images 20150507- 20150531 Every 6 minutes 47,541 images with size 480*480

• - Radar image taken at 3km REF3
• - Vertical Integration Liquid (VIL)

Flight Information REF3 Image VIL Image

Flight Delay using Big Data

To study the correlation between the convective weather condition and the flight departure status

Departure routes information from HKAIS and divide them into 3 groups

Deep Learning Network

• Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)

– Train 3 models for 3 departure groups respectively

Radar Image REF3 VIL info Input layer Hidden layer Output layer Delay Indicator (0/1) Reference chart

HKO Nowcasting Systems

• Radar based nowcasting systems:

– General purpose convection radar-based nowcasting –

Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorm for Localized System (SWIRLS)

– For Aviation Community – ATLAS (Airport Thunderstorm and Lightning System) and ATNS (Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System) – Community SWIRLS

• Mesoscale Models:

– Non-hydrostatic model (NHM) – Aviation Model (AVM)

• Blended radar-based nowcast + mesoscale model -> 0-6 hr

nowcasting system

Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System (ATNS) Specific Forecast for waypoints 0-1 hour

Semi-Lagrangian extrapolation scheme (LE)

1-hr convection nowcast for tactical decision-making (prototype)

Flight specific weather forecast

Simulated radar products

3km Reflectivity Max Isothermal reflectivity at -10 degC Vertically integrated ice (VII)

Forecast Mesoscale Diagnostic Parameters

Moisture flux + convergence Storm Motion Vector (SMV) Updraft Helicity (UDH)

RAPIDS-NHM

Blending LE with NWP

• Spatial & intensity adjusted
• No temporal adjustment
• Dynamic-weighting

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 Nowcasting component – LE

 0 - 6 hr QPF by extending the linear extrapolation of radar echoes

 NWP component – Non-hydrostatic Model (NHM)

 0 – 6 hr QPF by 2-km non-hydrostatic numerical model  3DVAR, Doppler, dual-radar 3D wind, GPS/PWV, etc.

+ 3 DAR

Fine-scale Aviation Model (AVM) for HKIA

• Sub-km implementation of

WRF-ARW v3.4.1

– Pearl River Delta (PRD): Δx = 600 m – Hong Kong Int’l Airport (HKA): Δx = 200 m

• Hourly-updated forecasts
• Up to T+(7 – 9)

Aviation-impact Weather around HKIA Outer domain: 350kmx350km Inner domain: 60kmx60km

Predicting Meso/Micro-scale Systems

Ensemble WRF+NCEP GEFS “Downscaler”

10-km 20-member Twice-daily / T+72 Based on WRF v3.4.1

Probabilistic Assessment of Severe Weather

Very Hot Weather (≥ 33◦C) Strong/Gale Winds (exceeding F6 or F8)

Hong Kong

Rainstorm / Sig. Conv. (3-hr rainfall percentile) Domain: 1800kmx1800km dx = 10km

Com-SWIRLS in action (SAWS radar data)

Community SWIRLS (com-SWIRLS) - an radar-based nowcasting system

THANK YOU Q & A

MRI/ NIED/ JMA 13-14 March 2012 29

Observational Data collected

RADAR METAR SYNOP Sounding AMDAR Lightning Wind profiler Local AWS

Nowcasting / Model / ATM data collected

ATNS MSQ NHM

SIGCONV and Capacity Notification RAPIDS