Water Resources Management in a Redefined Climate Presented at: Two - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Water Resources Management in a Redefined Climate Presented at: Two - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Water Resources Management in a Redefined Climate Presented at: Two Nations One Water US-Mexico Border Water Summit 2019 Las Cruces, New Mexico April 24, 2019 Dagmar Llewellyn Hydrologist / Civil Engineer Albuquerque Area Office We need


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Presented at: Two Nations One Water – US-Mexico Border Water Summit 2019

Las Cruces, New Mexico April 24, 2019

Water Resources Management in a Redefined Climate

Dagmar Llewellyn Hydrologist / Civil Engineer Albuquerque Area Office

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Stationarity assumes that the statistical properties of hydrologic variables in future time periods will be similar to past time periods

“Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.”

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We need to start thinking differently…

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Credit: Guy and Rodd

Taking action under Uncertainty involves risk…but so does taking no action.

We can’t let uncertainty stop us from taking action

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Decision-making for Deep Uncertainty (Playing “What if?”)

The future depends

  • n many factors.

But if we plan for a range of different futures, we can prepare, and adjust as we go along.

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We need to use the changes as an incentive to innovate

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We need to plan for failure

Graceful failure design in Boulder: a bike way surrounded by green space where water can flow in the event of flooding.

Image source: ICMA

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We need to Fund and Use Science to Support Improved Water Operations and Planning for Future Conditions

Image source: Union of Concerned Scientists

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Challenge: Better Forecasting of Sub-seasonal Precipitation and Temperature

Source: http://iri.columbia.edu/news/qa-subseasonal- predictionproject/

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We need to improve our monitoring of water systems so we can more tightly manage what is available.

Collison Floating Evaporation Pan Eddy- covariance towers Satellite-based monitoring

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We need to find ways to take advantage of the water supplies that are becoming available (rather than continuing to rely on supplies that were available in the past)

  • ~15 % more monsoonal flow days at the end 21st century
  • WT4 frequencies have a minimum at ~2040 and rapidly increase afterwards

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We need to consider win/win solutions that provide benefits within both our water and energy systems, and their interactions.

“Floatovoltaics”

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We need to work together!

Image source: Union of Concerned Scientists

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Basin Study Program

  • Collaborative studies, cost-

shared with non- Federal partners, to evaluate likely future imbalances between water supply and demand, and help ensure sustainable water supplies by identifying and modeling strategies to address these projected imbalances.

  • Require 50/50 cost-share
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Studies Funded in the Rio Grande Basin in New Mexico

Pecos River Basin Study Santa Fe Basin Study and Basin Study Update Rio Grande – New Mexico Basin Study

Basin Studies underway in New Mexico

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We need to act now!

Image source: The Economist

Begin to plan needed infrastructure changes, such as in-system storage that can take advantage of local rains. Lay groundwater for legal changes, such as reservoir

  • perational authorities, so

flexibility is available when it is needed. Build trust between different users and different reaches

  • f the basin, so we can

work together toward lasting solutions.

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Questions?