Water Forecasting Services to Manage Water Scarcity and Variability - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Water Forecasting Services to Manage Water Scarcity and Variability - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jan 03, 2023 12 likes •355 views

Water Forecasting Services to Manage Water Scarcity and Variability Dr Dasarath (Jaya) Jayasuriya Bureau of Meteorology Assistant Director Water Forecasting Services Hydropredict 2010 21 September 2010 Australian Temperatures All of

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Water Forecasting Services to Manage Water Scarcity and Variability

Dr Dasarath (Jaya) Jayasuriya Bureau of Meteorology Assistant Director Water Forecasting Services

Hydropredict 2010 21 September 2010

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Australian Temperatures

  • All of Australia has experienced warming over the past 50 years
  • Some areas, have experienced a warming of 1.5 to 2 C
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Australian Rainfall

  • Substantial increases in many parts of northern and central Australia
  • Substantial decreases across much of southern and eastern Australia
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Water Forecasts from BOM

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Water forecasting services

1-72 hours Flood Forecasts Emergency Response 7-10 days Flow Forecasts River Operations 3-12 months Seasonal Predictions Water Allocations and Supply Operations Multi years Scenario Projections Water Supply Planning

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Flash flooding in Brisbane, February 2010

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Normanton to Karumba Road cut, February 2010

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Flood warnings issued

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10

Month Number Issued

Watches Warnings

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Rainfall forecast from NWP guidance

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Flood forecast for Charleville, QLD

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Water forecasting services

1-72 hours Flood Forecasts Emergency Response 7-10 days Flow Forecasts River Operations 3-12 months Seasonal Predictions Water Allocations and Supply Operations Multi years Scenario Projections Water Supply Planning

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Short-term flow forecasting services

  • Forecast flows out to 7-10 days
  • Hydrographs or flow volumes
  • Probabilistic forecasts
  • Will be used for storage operation, environmental

flow releases, scheduling river diversions and assist water markets etc.

  • Experimental pilot study on Ovens River in Vic.
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WIRADA

Water Information Research & Development Alliance

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Short-term streamflow forecast product

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SWIFT – Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools

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SWIFT with FEWS Rain forecasts: Meso-Laps, Access-R and Access-G Rainfall-runoff: GR4J model Observed since 1 Jan 2010 Forecasts

Short Term Flow Forecasting

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Sample of Outputs from Ovens Pilot

1% 10% 25% 50% 75% 99% 90% Minor Flood Moderate Flood Major Flood

Forecast Time

Series of Forecast Hydrographs with Different Probabilities of Exceedance Likelihood of Exceeding Specific Flood Levels

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Water forecasting services

1-72 hours Flood Forecasts Emergency Response 7-10 days Flow Forecasts River Operations 3-12 months Seasonal Predictions Water Allocations and Supply Operations Multi years Scenario Projections Water Supply Planning

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Seasonal prediction services

  • Focus on 3 months cumulative stream flow (upstream of storages,

non regulated systems)

  • Research and development through Water Information Research and

Development Alliance activities:

– CSIRO’s Statistical Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) approach – Downscaling climate inputs from global climate model to hydrological model – Dynamic Hydrological Modelling approach – Combining statistical and dynamic approaches

  • Early focus on user needs and engagement
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Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Overview (Wang et al., CSIRO)

Bayesian statistical parameter inference is performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling The BJP modelling approach produces simultaneous predictions for multiple sites within a catchment Antecedent streamflow, rainfall, climate indicators and (subjective) prior knowledge are model inputs Model predictions are probabilistic, providing a measure of uncertainty

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Predicting seasonal streamflows.

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Experimental forecast - Skills

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Experimental forecast service Sep to Nov 2010 tercile summary

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Experimental forecast Goulburn, Sep-Nov 2010 (3)

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Experimental forecast Goulburn, Sep-Nov 2010 (1)

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Experimental forecast Goulburn, Sep-Nov 2010 (2)

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Experimental forecast Goulburn, Apr-Jun 2010 (1)

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Experimental forecast Goulburn, Apr-Jun 2010 (2)

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Experimental forecast Goulburn, Apr-Jun 2010 (4)

  • 7 tercile hits and

6 tercile misses

  • Low skill in

Autumn

            

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Experimental forecast - Skills

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Summary

  • Short-term 7 ~ 10 day river forecast pilot showing a lot of potential
  • Challenge is to convert the pilot to a full blown service
  • Seasonal (3 month forecast) going operational in December 2010
  • Highly applicable to areas that relate climate indicators (Soi type)

with streamflow

  • Dynamic modelling with downscaling work will further strengthen

predictions

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Thanks for listening Visit www.bom.gov.au/water

Dr Dasarath Jayasuriya d.jayasuriya@bom.gov.au +61 3 86388251 or +61 419893706