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Mar 14, 2024 471 likes •779 views

View-based Development of a Simulation Framework for Multi-Disciplinary Environmental Modelling Rolf Hennicker, Matthias Ludwig Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitt Mnchen The GLOWA-Danube Project (2000-2010) Integrative Techniques, Scenarios

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View-based Development of a Simulation Framework for Multi-Disciplinary Environmental Modelling

Rolf Hennicker, Matthias Ludwig

Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

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The GLOWA-Danube Project (2000-2010)

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  • Hydrology
  • Plant Ecology
  • Glaciology
  • Meteorology
  • Groundwater
  • Surface Water
  • Environmental Psychology
  • Environmental Economy
  • Tourism Research
  • Water Supply
  • Agricultural Economics

Social Sciences Natural Sciences Upper Danube Basin:

  • Area: 77.000 km²
  • Population: 8.2 Mio.
  • Elevation Gradient: 3300 m

+ Informatics Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of Water in the Upper Danube Basin

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An impression from the Danube Catchement

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Mutually Dependent Processes

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  • “Stand-alone” modelling of the single processes is not sufficient
  • An integrative view is needed → system of coupled simulation models
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Goal

  • Platform for integrative simulations with coupled

models from various disciplines

  • Approach: Generic Simulation Framework

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Generic Framework for Coupled Simulations

  • Extract common properties and rules which hold for all simulation models and

implement them in a general, abstract template.

  • The model developer must only implement the open pieces of the template

(according to his/her domain).

Framework Ideas Framework Architecture

Framework Core Developer Interface

(“plug points” for model developers) (runtime environment for configuration and coordination)

Coupled Simulation Models

Integrative Simulation System (e.g. DANUBIA)

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Development Principles

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  • Different abstraction levels and refinement
  • Modeling with the Unified Modeling Language (UML)
  • Formal Methods

– Object Constraint Language (OCL) – Process algebra FSP (Finite State Processes) [Magee, Kramer]

  • Separation of concerns
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Oberflächengew. Grundwasser Politik Glaziologie Hydrologie/ Fernerkundung Psychologie Tourismus Meteorologie Pflanzenökol. Ökonomie

Grundwasserneubildung mit Stickstoffgehalt [d] Grundwasserstand, Stickstoff im GW [d] Schnee- bedeckung [d] Schneebedeckung, Abfluss aus Schnee- und Eisflächen [h] Verdunstung, Albedo, Landnutzung [h] Verdunstung, Bodenfeuchte, Albedo, Oberflächentemperatur [h] Lufttemperatur, Wind, Feuchte, Niederschlag, Strahlung [h] Wasserstand, Abfluss, N im Flusswasser [h] Laterale Zuflüsse mit Stickstoffgehalt [h] LAI, Vegetationshöhe, Wurzeltiefe, Nmin-Boden [d] Landnutzung, Transpiration, Albedo, Bodenfeuchte [h] Politische Rahmenbedingungen [a] In-/Exfiltrationsraten Stickstoff im GW [mon] Brauchwassermenge, Nutzungsart [d] Wassermenge, Wasserqualität [h] Aktuelle Landnutzung

  • Prognost. Landnutzung und

Bewirtschaftung [a] Wasserstand, Abfluss, N im Flusswasser [d] Düngemittel Import/Export [a] Produktion in Land- und Forstwirtschaft [a] Grundwasserentnahme und Qualität [d] Trinkwasserbedarf und benötigte Qualität [d] Tourismusart [mon] Subjektive Risikoeinschätzung, Akzeptanz der Wasserqualität [a] Wasserpreise [a] Nachfrage, Zahlungs- bereitschaft [a] Akzeptanz der politischen Bedingungen [a] Angebotsfunk- tion, Preise [a] Nachfrage, Zahlungs- bereitschaft [mon] Kosten der Wasser- aufbereitung [a]

  • Pol. Programme

und Ökologie Daten zu Raumordnungs- regionen [a] Politische Rahmen- bedingungen [a] Akzeptanz der politischen Bedingungen [a]

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Functional Views of the Framework

  • Data exchange (at runtime)
  • Simulation space
  • Simulation time and coordination

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Outline

  • Introduction
  • View-based Framework Development
  • Framework Instantiation
  • Conclusion

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View-based Framework Development

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Base

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Requirements Design

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Simulation Space

Requirement (1) A simulation space consists of a set of ”proxels” (process pixels).

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Example:

context Simulation inv: self.models−>forAll (m | m.proxels.pid −>asSet() = self.area.proxels.pid −>asSet()

Invariant Requirement (2)

All simulation models, participating in an integrative simulation, agree on the simulation space.

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Design Model (Space)

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View-based Framework Development

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Life Cycle of Simulation Models

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  • begin
  • end
  • timeStep
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The Coordination Problem

Each simulation model

  • has an individual time step,
  • must be supplied with valid data

according to its local model time

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const simStart = 0 const simEnd = 6 range Time = simStart..simEnd property VALIDDATA(User, StepUser, Prov, StepProv) = VD[simStart][simStart], VD[nextGet:Time][nextProv:Time] = // no obsolete data (when (nextGet<nextProv) [User].get[nextGet] -> VD[nextGet+StepUser][nextProv] // no overwritten data |when not(nextGet<nextProv) [Prov].prov[nextProv] -> VD[nextGet][nextProv+StepProv]).

Specification with FSP [Magee, Kramer]

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Labelled Transition System

VALIDDATA(User=1, StepUser=2, Prov=2, StepProv=3)

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FSP-Design Model

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Timecontroller Model1 Modeln ...

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From UML to FSP and back

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UML-Requirements Model FSP-Requirements Spec UML-Design Model FSP-Design Model

Formal Correctness Proof

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UML-Design Model

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View Integration

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Component-based Architecture

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Outline

  • Introduction
  • View-based Framework Development
  • Framework Instantiation
  • Conclusion

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Framework Instantiation

Framework Core Developer Interface Groundwater Model

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GLOWA-Danube

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Integrative Simulation System DANUBIA (Various configurations of up to 18 models)

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Climate and Society Scenarios

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Integrative Simulation Evaluation of results, Discussion with Stakeholders

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Results for the Upper Danube Basin: 2011 - 2060

  • Used Climate Scenario (IPCC):

temperature increase 3.3°C – 5.2°C between 1990 and 2090

  • Trends for precipitation:

More rainfall in winter, less in summer, moderate decrease all over the year

  • Consequences:
  • Expected reduction of water power production (between 10 % – 16%)
  • Possible restrictions for ship traffic in summer due to low water levels
  • 30 – 60 days less snow cover per year in lower alpine regions (due to temperature

increase) but possible improvements in high-level alpine regions

  • Less winter tourism but moderate increase of summer tourism
  • Further results
  • Less private water use expected (around 20%) due to changing behaviours and

new technologies (for saving water)

  • Shortage of drinking water not expected, but the need for temporary adaptation

strategies of water suppliers is likely (e.g. more cooperation and networks)

  • (Almost) all glaciers in the Upper Danube catchment will vanish until 2045

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Characteristics of the Framework

  • Data exchange at runtime
  • Parallel execution of dependent models
  • Other approaches

– OpenMI: Sequential execution of dependent models – Object Modeling System (OMS): Parallel execution of independent models – ModCom: no parallel execution

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Conclusion

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  • View-based development helped to overcome problems with system

complexity; should be applicable to other types of systems as well!

  • The framework is generic and can be applied to any kind of (environmental)

simulation model supporting:

  • loose coupling with data exchange via interfaces,
  • simulation spaces organised by proxels (of arbitrary size),
  • discrete time steps (of arbitrary length).
  • Role of Informatics in multi-disciplinary projects:

Well-known methods of Informatics like abstraction, structuring, and separation of concerns can be very useful for conceptual integration.

  • Open DANUBIA  www.glowa-danube.de