Using BARRA to assess climate related hazards Chun-Hsu Su 1 , Nathan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Using BARRA to assess climate related hazards Chun-Hsu Su 1 , Nathan Eizenberg 1 , Peter Steinle 1 , Doerte Jakob 1 , Paul Fox-Hughes 2 , Samuel Sauvage 2 , Mitchell Black 1 , Robert Fawcett 1 , Robert Smalley 1 , Stuart Matthews 3 1 Bureau of
1 Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 2 Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, Australia 3 New South Wales Rural Fire Service
International Symposium of Regional Reanalysis, Bonn, Germany, July 17th -19th 2018
Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/about/ Lake Hume, 2007 during the Millennium Drought 1996-2010 in South Australia Photo: https://www.flickr.com/photos/suburbanbloke/381634787/
Bushfire satellite image Victoria 19th February 2009 - NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre, MODIS Rapid Response Team (colour corrected) Source: https://me.me/
As well as forecasts, the Bureau of Meteorology provides a freely accessible, web based climate analysis explorer for Australian climate and past weather products
interpolation of observational 'analyses' (right c.f zero- initialised on left)
R Fawcett, R Smalley (BOM)
Fig 1. Manually analysed seasonal
September - November 1989 Fig 2. Spatial Barnes analysis (distance weighted statistical interpolation) of Australian Climate Observation Reference Network – Surface Air Temperature (ACORN- SAT) Fig 3. Composite analysis using combined statistically interpolated anomalies (Fig 2) and thin plate spline-smoothed 3D mean for max surface temp. Current
Fig 4. Composite analysis for rainfall using a more sophisticated (experimental) statistical interpolation
development. Fig 5. Reanalysis rainfall map – the future
1989 2010 2000
R Fawcett, R Smalley (BOM)
The NFDRS will replace the current system to improve communication, preparedness, response and planning around fire events and bushfire risk in Australia. Reanalysis value
category thresholds
Haines Index values for 'red flag' warnings within the system
95th percentile daily maximum NFDRS ratings over the reanalysis period (2010-2015) (P F Hughes, S Sauvage & S Matthews in draft July 2018)
behaviour of fire indexes
afternoon (dark blue and yellow) and mid-late morning (cyan and green)
P F Hughes, S Sauvage & S Matthews (draft July 2018) (Top) Fire season mean time of max index in UTC. (Inset) Mean time of daily max Continuous Haines index. Note that 12 UTC = 20 AWST = 22 AEST
BARRA reanalysis used to provide atmosphere and soil conditions for case studies of fire events simulated by fire spread models (Phoenix, Spark, Australis Landgate) The simulation output informs bush fire risk planning and emergency response policy
S Matthews (NSW RFS) Cobbler Road fire simulation comparison Chris Bridge (Bureau of Meteorology)
(colour corrected)