US Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios to 2050 Ron Sands Joint - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

US Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios to 2050

Ron Sands Joint Global Change Research Institute Battelle – PNNL – University of Maryland Global Challenges Toward a Low-Carbon Economy: Country-Specific Scenario Analysis Montreal, Canada 3 December 2005

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Introduction

Results for the United States from Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-21) Goals

Provide policy-relevant analysis (not policy prescriptive) Economic comparison of major classes of greenhouse gas (GHG)

mitigation options

Classes of Mitigation Options

Energy efficiency improvements Fuel switching Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Non-CO2 GHGs Terrestrial options (biofuels, carbon in soils, carbon in trees)

Main Conclusions

No single model can represent all relevant processes Each type of mitigation option contributes significant fraction of total

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Models

Energy System and Geologic Storage

CO2 emissions from energy combustion, carbon dioxide capture

and storage from electricity generation

Battelle Second Generation Model

Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

Methane, Nitrous Oxide, F-gases Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-21) baselines and marginal

abatement cost curves

Agricultural Offsets

Soil sequestration, Afforestation, Biofuel Offsets Agricultural Sector Model (McCarl, B.A. and Schneider, U.A. 2001.

“Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S. Agriculture and Forestry.” Science 294, 2481-2482.)

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U.S. Carbon Equivalent Emissions (baseline)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 million tons carbon equivalent F-gases nitrous oxide methane energy system + CCS

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U.S. Carbon Equivalent Emissions ($100 constant)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 million tons carbon equivalent F-gases nitrous oxide methane energy system + CCS

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U.S. Carbon Equivalent Emissions ($200 constant)

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 million tons carbon equivalent F-gases nitrous oxide methane energy system + CCS

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Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS)

Carbon Dioxide Capture from Electric Power Generation

Technologies with and without CCS

Coal integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) Natural gas combined cycle (NGCC)

Engineering cost model for capture process from David and Herzog,

2000, “The Cost of Carbon Capture,” Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies

Geologic Storage

Cost of storage assumed constant ($40 per tC) Ongoing work at Battelle to construct storage supply curves for the

US and other countries

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U.S. Electricity Baseline Scenario

nuclear hydro

• il

gas (single cycle) gas (NGCC) coal (PC) coal (IGCC)

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 billion kWh

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Constant-Carbon-Price Scenario

Carbon price of $200 per tC starting in 2015

nuclear hydro

• il

gas (single cycle) NGCC PC

IGCC

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 billion kWh

NGCC+CCS PC+CCS IGCC+CCS

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Economic Comparison of Mitigation Options

View 1: Components of US emission reductions relative to baseline over time

Constant carbon price of $200 per t C-eq Components

Energy system CO2 Carbon dioxide capture and storage Non-CO2 GHGs (methane, nitrous oxide, F-gases) Terrestrial options (soil carbon, afforestation, biofuels)

View 2: Cumulative emission reductions over a range of carbon prices

Results derived from a set of constant-carbon-price experiments Carbon prices up to $300 per t C-eq Expressed as cumulative marginal abatement cost curves Cumulative emissions reductions over 40 years

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CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CH4 CH4 CH4 CH4 N2O N2O N2O N2O F-gas F-gas F-gas F-gas biofuel biofuel biofuel biofuel soil seq. soil seq. soil seq. afforestation afforestation afforestation afforestation

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 million metric tons carbon equivalent afforestation soil sequestration biofuel offset CCS F-gases nitrous oxide methane energy system CO2

Components of U.S. Emissions Reductions at $200 per t CE

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U.S. Cumulative Emissions Reductions (40 years with constant carbon price)

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 million metric tons carbon equivalent (2013-2052) carbon price energy energy+CCS all GHGs all GHGs + Ag/For

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Conclusions

No single model can represent all relevant processes

Bottom-up: specialized analysis or models by sector

Agriculture / Forestry Buildings Industry Transportation Electricity generation

Top-down: combine results across sectors

Each type of mitigation option contributes significant fraction of total

Energy efficiency improvements Fuel switching CO2 capture and storage Non-CO2 greenhouse gases Terrestrial storage and biofuels

Potential of each mitigation option varies across countries