US Construction Spending, Labor and Materials Outlook American Wire - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

US Construction Spending, Labor and Materials Outlook American Wire Producers Association Atlanta, May 10, 2017 Ken Simonson Chief Economist, AGC of America

2 Construction spending & employment, 2006-2017 Total spending, Feb. ‘06 (peak)-Mar. ‘17 Total employment, Apr. ’06 (peak)-Mar. ‘17 9,000 billion $, seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) thousands, seasonally adjusted 7.7 million $1.21 trillion $1,250 7,500 Total 6.9 million $1.22 trillion $1,000 6,000 Total (1% above last (11% below peak) peak) Private $750 4,500 Residential Nonresidential (6% below peak) 3,000 $500 Residential (17% below peak) Private nonresidential $250 1,500 Public 0 $0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 March 2016-March 2017: total 4% March 2016-March 2017: total 2.5% private res. 7%, private nonres. 6%, public -6% residential 4.3%, nonresidential 1.4% Source: Spending--U.S. Census Bureau; Employment--Bureau of Labor Statistics

3 7 areas of policy uncertainties affecting construction • Infrastructure: How much? How soon? What types? Funding source? • Immigration: Impact on new & current workers? Wall construction? • Trade: Higher materials costs? Shortages? Less or more factory const.? • Regulatory relief: Which ones? How soon? • Health care rewrite: Timing? Impact on demand for hospital const.? • Fiscal: Lower taxes? For whom? Bigger deficits? Implications for construction demand, labor supply? • Monetary: Higher interest rates? Impact on housing, state/local bonds? Source: Author

4 Nonresidential segments: 2015-16 change, 2017 forecast 2016 vs. Jan.-Mar. 2017 2015 ’17 vs. ’16 forecast Nonresidential total (public+private) 5 % 5% 2-6% Power (incl. oil & gas field structures, pipelines) 4 5 5-10 Highway and street 1 -5 2-5 Educational 6 5 3-7 Manufacturing -4 -10 <0 Commercial (retail, warehouse, farm) 11 14 0-5 Office 25 21 8-13 Transportation -6 -9 0-5 Health care 2 1 0-5 Lodging 25 13 ~0 Sewage & waste disposal -9 -24 Other--amusement; communication; religious; public safety; conservation; water: 10% of total -1 -1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report; Author’s forecast

5 Construction spending: industrial, heavy annual total, 2008-13; monthly, SAAR, 1/14-3/17; billion $ Power (94% private) Manufacturing (99% private) $120 $100 $90 $75 Electric $60 $50 Other Oil & $25 $30 Chemical Gas $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 5% (oil & gas -10%; electric 9%) Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: -10% (chemical 4%; other -21%) Amusement & recreation (54% private) Communication (99.5% private) $30 $50 $40 $20 $30 $20 Public $10 $10 Private $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 9% (private 12%; public 6%) Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 18 % Source: U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report

6 Key points: power, manufacturing, recreation • Solar, wind power are growing again; expect more gas-fired plants, natural gas pipelines into ‘18 • Mfg decline led by completion or delay of chemical plants (fertilizer, ethane crackers, petrochemicals, LNG) and transportation equipment (cars, trucks, jets, railcars); recovery in ‘18 depends on policy impacts, especially trade and tax • Amusement & recreation spending is very “lumpy”—a few big stadiums at irregular intervals; but funding for local, state, federal parks keeps eroding Source: Author

7 Construction spending: public works annual total, 2008-13; monthly, SAAR, 1/14-3/17; billion $ Highways (99.6% public in 2016) Sewage/waste (99% public) $120 $30 $90 $20 $60 $10 $30 $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: -2% Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: -22% Transportation facilities (71% public) Water supply (99% public) $50 $30 $40 public $20 $30 $20 $10 private $10 $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: -12% (private -9%; public -14%) Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: -14% Source: U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report

8 Key points: roads, transportation, sewer/water • Highway funds benefit from more travel, hence fuel purchases; gradual pick-up in state funding & P3s; higher federal funding unlikely before ‘18 • Railroads slashing investment; pickup in airport projects but no increase likely in port, transit construction funding • Eastern & Midwestern cities under orders to make long-term upgrades to sewer systems that should keep a floor on spending; water utilities hurt by drought, conservation but may get money for lead abatement Source: Author

9 Construction spending: education, health care annual total, 2008-13; monthly, SAAR, 1/14-3/17; billion $ Education : state/local K-12, S/L higher; private Health care : (private hospital, S/L hospital, other) $100 $50 Total (77% public) Total (80% private) $40 $75 $30 $50 Private $20 hospital S/L preK-12 Other S/L $25 higher ed $10 Private S/L hospital $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 1% (state/local preK-12 3%; Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: -1% (private hospital 3%; S/L state/local higher ed -10%; private 15%) hospital -21%; other: special care, med. office, federal -7%) Source: U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report

10 Key points: education & health care • Bond issues passed in 2014-16 should boost preK-12 projects in 2017 and 2018 • Higher-ed enrollment declined 21% from 2011 to 2016, so colleges need fewer dorms & classrooms; apts. (multifamily) replacing dorms (educational construction) • Hospitals face uncertainty about utilization and reimbursement rates if Affordable Care Act is repealed/modified/replaced; also, more competition from standalone urgent care, outpatient surgery, clinics in stores Source: Author

11 Construction spending: developer-financed annual total, 2008-13; monthly, SAAR, 1/14-3/17; billion $ Retail (private) Office (90% private in 2016) $80 $80 Total Private $60 $60 $40 $40 $20 $20 Public $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 5% Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 16% (private 18%; public 1%) Warehouse (private) Lodging (private) $40 $40 $30 $30 $20 $20 $10 $10 $0 $0 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 '08 '10 '12 '14 '15 '16 '17 Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 36% Mar. '16-Mar. '17 change: 9% Source: U.S. Census Bureau construction spending report

12 Key points: retail, warehouse, office, hotel, data centers • Retail now tied to mixed-use buildings & renovations, not standalone stores or shopping centers • Warehouse market still benefiting from e-commerce; more local than huge regional distribution centers likely in future • Record employment each month but office space per employee keeps shrinking; more urban & renovation work than suburban office parks • Hotel construction likely to drop as revenue per available room slows • Data centers remain a strong niche but no data available on how strong Source: Author

13 Population change by state, July 2015-July 2016 (U.S.: 0.70%) decrease 0-0.49% 0.5-0.99% 1.0-1.49% 1.5%+ 1.8% NH 0.2 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% % 0.7% 1.7% VT 1.8% -0.2% 0.2% -0.01% 0.9% 0.1% -0.2% MA -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% 0.3% CT RI -0.3% 0.7% 1.7% -0.5% -0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.02% 0.3% 0.3% DE NJ 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.03% 0.3% 1.4% MD DC 1.1% 0.4% 1.6% -0.02% 0.2% 1.6% AK 0.3% 0.6% 1.8% HI 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

14 State construction employment change (U.S.: 4%) 3 /16 to 3/17: 39 states up, 10 + DC down Over -10% -5.1% to -10% -0.1% to -5% 0% 0.1% to 5% 5.1% to 10% Over 10% 7% NH 7% 8% 6% 3% 5% 9% VT 7% 3% 0.4% 2% 5% -3% 7% MA 3% -2% 3% 2% 4% 5% 8% 3% CT RI -2% 0% 6% 2% -3% 8% 0.2% 1% 1% 4% DE NJ 2% 7% 1% -1% 3% 2% 4% -1% 3% MD DC 7% -1% -9% 0.1% -10% 3% Shading based on 5% -7% unrounded numbers 8% HI -3% Source: BLS state and regional employment report

15 Metro construction employment change 3/16 to 3/17: 224 metros up (62%), 42 unchanged, 92 down (27%)

16 Hardest positions to fill % of respondents who are having trouble filling All hourly craft positions 69% Carpenters 60% Electricians 53% Plumbers, roofers 50% Concrete workers 49% Salaried field/office positions 38%/33% Project mgrs/supervisors 50% Estimators 31% Engineers 28% 0% 25% 50% 75% Source: AGC Member Survey, August 2016

17 How contractors are coping with worker shortages 48% Raising base pay 43% 20% Providing incentives/bonuses 27% 22% Increasing contributions/benefits Hourly Salaried 21% In-house training 48% Overtime hours 47% Subcontractors 39% Engage w/ career-building prog. 37% Staffing company 24% Labor-saving equip., tools, mach. 21% Unions 18% Lean construction 15% Offsite prefabrication 13% Building information modeling (BIM) 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%