Urban Hazards Forum, NYC Mitigation: Engineering and Infrastructure - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Urban Hazards Forum, NYC

Mitigation: Engineering and Infrastructure 14:00-15:30PM, Jan 23, 2002

Multi-Hazard Mitigation Needs and Opportunities for the Greater New York Metropolitan Area, with Examples for Coastal Storm Surge- (http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu) and Earthquake-Hazards (http://www.nycem.org).

Klaus Jacob Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades NY jacob@ldeo.columbia.edu

NYCEM / LDEO

Quantifying Risk :

Risk (expected Loss) is the Product of 3 Factors integrated over a given region:

Risk Risk = Sum Sum (Hazard Hazard x Asset Asset x Fragility Fragility | Hazard

| Hazard )

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Assets: Landuse Map for MEC; 20 Million People; $2 Trillion Total Built Assets, $1 Trillion Infrastructure; $ 1 Trillion Annual Economy (GRP)

Barren Land

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Storm Hazards: Winds, Precipitation (River Flooding), Surges (Coastal Flooding and Wave Action). Image: Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 1999

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NYC Storm Surge Inundation Map for “SLOSH” Model Worst-Case Storm Tracks, Color Coded By S-S Categories 1-4

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SLOSH Model, Category 1: Manhattan, Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel

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Cat 2 - S. Ferry Subway Station

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Example: PATH Station – 1992 Nor’easter

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1992 Nor’easter : Manhattan, FDR North-bound / 80th St.

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La Guardia - Nov. 25, 1950 Nor’easter

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Projection of Current Trend Hadley Center, UK, Climate Model

S E A L E V E L Time

Sea Level Rise for 2000-2100 (in cm)

Canadian Climate Model Canadian Climate Model

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Time (Years)

GB JFK LT EWR RHMT PNE HT LGA TEB TB BWB QMT TNB BBT VNB B&Q E&F 4,5&6 2&3 1&9 WTC M,N&R A&C PST FRBr PWBr ERT LBBr FDR MP WS HL NHL GCTe

Probabilistic Surge Heights for CCGG-Model vs. Time with Critical Transportation Infrastructure Elevations Superimposed

CCGG Model: lines represent constant recurrence periods (from bottom to top) of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, and 500 years)

5 5 50 50 500 500

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Storm Risk Estimates for MEC:

SS Category Recurrence Period (Years) Loss ($Billion)

1 15 - 50 5 2 30 - 100 10 3 150 - 500 50 3-4 300 - 1000 100 4 800 - 2500 250+

by: Yr 2100 Now

Annualized Loss $ 1 Billion/Year, 0.1% of GRP

(Absorbable)

Probable Maximum Loss (PML) up to 25% +

• f GRP !!!

WTC

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Conclusions for Storm Hazards and Risks

• Infrastructure @ Elev

Infrastructure @ Elevations of 6 to 20 ft Above ions of 6 to 20 ft Above

• NGVD. Flooded Currently Every Few Decades.
• NGVD. Flooded Currently Every Few Decades.
• Sea Level Rise of 1

Sea Level Rise of 1-

• 3ft by 2100 Increases Flood

3ft by 2100 Increases Flood Frequency by Factors of 2 to 10 (Mean of 3). Frequency by Factors of 2 to 10 (Mean of 3).

• Without Mitigation, PML of $10

Without Mitigation, PML of $10-

• 250 Billion is

250 Billion is Expected Every Few Decades to Centuries. Expected Every Few Decades to Centuries.

• Annualized

Annualized Losses of 0.1% of GRP Would Be Losses of 0.1% of GRP Would Be Absorbable by MEC’s $1Trillion Economy. Absorbable by MEC’s $1Trillion Economy.

• But

But: Large Losses Do Occur in : Large Losses Do Occur in SINGLE CATA SINGLE CATA-

• STROPHIC EVENTS

STROPHIC EVENTS (1 (1-

• 25% of GRP) with Likely

25% of GRP) with Likely International Economic Ripple effects. International Economic Ripple effects.

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NE Seismicity 1977-1999 (22 Years) Blue Circles: M=4

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Manhattan Site Classes, Census Track - Based A Hard Rock 0.8 B Firm Rock 1.0 C Firm Soil 1.7 D Soil 2.4 E Soft Soil 3.5

Amplification at 1.0 Hz

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GIS Tools are Used: e.g. the new NYC digital Base Map

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+ +

M=5, 6, 7 Scenario Equ.

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30,000 Above 400,000 120,000 240,000

Manhattan Manhattan Total Build. Loss: Total Build. Loss:

2001$ (Thousands) by census tract

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Structural

+

Contents

+

Loss of Use

$ 0.7 B $ 10 B $ 43 B

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0.05 Above 0.70 0.20 0.40 Contoured PGA, % g Debris: Brick, Wood, Steel and Concrete each dot represents 10,000 tons

6.0M 5.0M 7.0M

Scenario Earthquakes

Debris Generated: 88 k tons

5,700 k tons 27,178 k tons

9,000 Trucks (10t) 600,000 Trucks 3 Million Trucks

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Critical Structures & Facilities:

• Major Bridge Retrofit Work & Studies:

Delaware Memorial, NJ/DE Whitestone NYC Tappan Zee NY Queensboro NYC

• Williamsburg. NYC

Manhattan, NYC George Washington NY/NJ …... Others, Smaller

• Nuclear Facilities
• JFK Airport International Arrival Bldng.
• Federal Court House

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Queensboro Bridge, New York

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Risk Management: Risk Management: Reduce Risk Exposure: Risk = ? (Hazard x Assets x Fragility)

• Avoid Placing high Assets into the most Hazardous

Zones.

• Urban Planning, Landuse, Zoning, Regulations &

Codes.

• Evaluate Hazard at the Appropriate Probability Level.
• Tails of Probability Distributions -> Extreme

Catastrophes.

• Reduce Fragility, Increase Toughness &

Redundancy, Retrofit. Emergency Response Planning & Preparedness: Minimize Post-Event Losses, Post-Event Recovery / Reconstruction: Opportunity for

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Summary and Conclusions for NYC:

• NYC has Moderate to low earthquake and storm hazards
• High Population & Asset Concentrations
• High Fragilities of Existing Built Assets

Therefore: --->

• Low Probability - High Consequence Conditions
• Substantial Risk Exposure (>> Tens of Billions of Dollars / Event)
• Greatest Seismic Risk is to Extensive Unreinforced Masonry

with High Risk of Collapse and Threat to Lives.

• Transportation Infrastructure Systems at low Elevations are

Highly Vulnerable

• Emergency Preparedness Must be High

while Vulnerability Can be Gradually Reduced.

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GENERALIZED CONCLUSIONS FOR GLOBAL MEGACITIES:

• 1. Urbanization Increases Risk on a Global Scale.
• 2. Hazard is probabilistically quantifiable on a global scale with

current data. Microzonation of hazard requires detailed local geotechnical data for equ., and topography for storm surges.

• 3. Risk/Loss Modeling is well developed but needs full inventory
• f built assets and their fragilities. Ok for NY, but on a

global scale, population and per capita income may have to suffice initially as a proxy for full asset inventory.

• 4. Vulnerability is a complex quantity, strongly tied to lack of

redundancy; in developing countries tied to poverty, income- inequities, and the exclusion of large sectors of civil society from the political process. Hard to quantify even just for a single hazard. While there may be common causes for vulnerability to different hazards, vulnerability has hazard- specific aspects.

• 5. Risk Management: Pre-Event Preparedness & Mitigation are

as important as Post-Event Recovery. Remaining Risk can be Distributed via Insurance. RM Requires strong Institutions and Resources not readily available in developing countries. This is a major development issue of global scale.

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END. Questions ?