Upcoming Process Today Reviewing Assumptions from LPlan 2040 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Upcoming Process

Today

• Reviewing Assumptions from LPlan 2040
• Existing Land Availability
• How Much Do We Need to Add?
• Where Could Growth Go?

Upcoming

• Detailed Growth Scenarios for our April Meeting
• Growth Scenarios for Public Discussion in May

LPlan Assumptions Today

Assumption

• Add 1,500 units per year

(Lincoln)

• 40% multi-family
• 8,000 infill units, 2016-

2040 (333 units/year, 22%

• f total)
• 3,000 downtown units,

2016-2040 (125 units/year)

• 3.0 units/acre (edge)

Actual

• Added 1,700 units per year,

2015-2019

• 45% multi-family
• 1,906 infill units, 2015-2019

(381 units/year, 22% of total)

• 670 downtown units, 2015-

2019 (134 units/year)

• 4.0 units/acre

LPlan Assumptions Today

Assumption

• 412,000 by 2040
• Lincoln 90% of total
• Need to add 1,500

households per year

Updated Assumption

• 400,000 by 2040
• 440,000 by 2050
• Lincoln 90% of total
• Need to add 1,600

households per year

Growth Tiers Map

• Tier 1A: developing area

with existing approvals

• Tier 1B: to be developed

by 2026

• Tier 1C: to be developed

by 2040

• Tier II: 2040 to 2060
• Tier III: after 2060

Growth Tiers Map

• Tier 1A: many areas are

now fully developed

• Tier 1B: new approvals,

currently developing

• Stevens Creek trunk line

expansion

Looking Forward to 2050

• How much land is currently available in Tier I?
• Tier I is the 2040 Future Service Limit established with LPlan 2040
• For current inventory, looking at “developable” land

meeting the following criteria:

• No existing approvals
• Outside floodplain
• Not a current acreage site

Looking Forward to 2050

• There are currently 13.4 sq mi of “developable” land

within Tier I

• 8.1 sq mi of that land is shown as Urban Residential on

the Future Land Use Map

• The remaining is mostly Industrial and Commercial

Looking Forward to 2050

• How much land must be added to serve our 2050 growth

needs?

• Let’s look at several growth scenarios
• Need to add 47,816 units to Lincoln by 2050
• All options include 16,000 units that are already approved

(but not yet developed) within the Future Service Limit

• Also includes 10-year cushion to provide flexibility
• Only includes residential area
• The numbers should still be considered estimates at this

point

Growth Scenarios

Infill Edge Density Required Expansion to Future Service Limit 1 LPlan Assumptions Continued 22% 3.0 du/acre 9.5 sq mi 2 Recent Trends Continued 22% 4.0 du/acre 5.1 sq mi 3 High Infill, Trend Density 28% 4.0 du/acre 3.6 sq mi 4 High Infill, High Density 28% 5.0 du/acre 1.3 sq mi 5 Trend Infill, Low Density 22% 2.5 du/acre 13.1 sq mi 6 “ALL” Infill (existing edge approvals still included) 67% 4.0 du/acre Reduction of 6 sq mi 7 Low Infill, Low Density 16% 2.5 du/acre 15.5 sq mi

Where Could Growth Go?

Plan It Yourself

Plan It Yourself

How Do We Want to Grow?

• What are the benefits and challenges of infill?
• What are the benefits and challenges of edge growth?

Impacts of Edge Growth vs. Infill

• Edge
• Degraded LFR service
• Rural school districts

lose valuation

• Impact fees used as

match for new edge trails

• Impacts LPD response

times; Need for more satellite locations

• Greater investments in

roads (public & private)

• Longer commutes
• Infill
• Impacts on LFR

Personnel

• No trail impact fees, but

may need wider trails

• LPD may need to

redistrict based on call- for-service

Impacts of Edge Growth vs. Infill

• Edge
• Development pressure

impacting floodplains

• Expand wastewater

collection system

• New LES facilities
• Increased costs to transit
• Infill
• Existing floodplain creates

issues

• Need to preserve parks
• School attendance

boundaries

• Downtown infill will impact

a new Central Library

• Upgrade WW in certain

locations

• New LES facilities
• Increased density is good

for transit

How Do We Want to Grow?

• Are there specific locations that we should prioritize for Future

Service Limit expansion?

How Do We Want to Grow?

• We will end up with 3-4 scenarios for public review. At this point

which three scenarios do you feel are most reasonable to pursue further?

How Do We Want to Grow?

• What additional information do you need in order to make

informed decisions about the scenarios?

LRTP Update

• Primary function of the Lincoln MPO
• Updated every 5-years
• Blueprint for area’s transportation planning process over the

next 30 years

• Compliance with federal requirements to receive federal funding
• Effort among the City of Lincoln, Lancaster County, the

Nebraska Department of Transportation (NDOT), StarTran transit and other agencies

• Lincoln MPO's current LRTP was adopted January 13, 2017

Major Work Tasks

• Travel Demand Model Update
• Current and Future Needs Assessment
• Goals, Objectives, and Performance Measures
• Alternatives Development and Analysis
• Implementation Plan
• Documentation
• Public Engagement

Public Engagement

• Project Website
• Press Releases
• Meeting Advertisement
• Social Media
• Email Outreach
• Pop-up Events or Public Meetings
• Online Meetings
• Committees
• Focus Groups

LRTP Process

Next Meeting

• More details on costs and implications of different

growth scenarios

• Summary of our public input so far
• Additional discussion about the LRTP

Upcoming Events

• Public event in May to present growth scenarios and

collect feedback (could be “virtual”)

• Online survey in May about growth scenarios