Understanding the Economic Disruption in Your Community Caused by - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Understanding the Economic Disruption in Your Community Caused by COVID-19

Kyle Adams President of Mid-America EDC Vice President RDC National, Inc.

Agenda

• Welcome / Intros
• Essential vs. Non-Essential

Breakdown

• Economic Impact to Main Street,

Construction Sector

• Pivoting to resilient, in-demand

skills

Drew Repp – Content Manager, Econ. & Workforce Development John Hawkins – Director, Workforce Development Josh Wright – EVP , Economic & Workforce Development

Community Insights Team

Following public health concerns and questions...

Next question: what is the economic impact on ________?

Not completely analogous to previous major events

• Global Financial Crisis (internal cause)
• Hurricanes Katrina and Harvey (single

events/locations, loss of infrastructure)

• 9/11 (immediate, unforeseen)

Most similar to GFC:

• Widespread
• Economic Contraction
• Stimulus package
• Uncertainty

Contributions Analysis – measures any and every dollar that touches a specific industry along with the associated multiplier effect. Gross Regional Product (GRP) Analysis – examines the amount of total value added in a region that stems from a particular industry or firm. Economic Impact Analysis – determines the net change to the economic base of a region that can be attributed to a firm or industry that

• therwise would not be there.

Economic Impact Analysis: Input-Output Models

• Assess how money flows in a region
• Includes:

○ How money is exchanged between industries ○ How employees spend salaries ○ Tax revenue ○ Long-term investment ○ And much more (Emsi I-O model took three years to create)

• Change or shock (input)
• Multiplier effects (output)

Output: the impacts

Initial: The basic shock to the economy that occurs as a direct result of the change. Direct: The effect of new input purchases by the initially changed industries. Change is due to inter-industry effects and captures the supply chain impact. Indirect: The subsequent ripple effect in further supply chains resulting from the direct change. Induced: Change due to new earnings, investment, and government created by the initial, direct, and indirect changes.

Essential vs. Non-Essential

Essential vs. Non-Essential Workers

• Identified by Homeland Security /

Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).

• Based on 16 critical infrastructure

sectors at the national level.

• Can vary heavily by region, state,

county, and city.

https://www.cisa.gov/publication/guidance-essential-critical-infrastructure-workforce

Metros Over 500k Population

MSA Name Highest Share of Essential Workers Bakersfield, CA 62.8% Fayetteville, NC 62.2% Stockton, CA 59.3% Fresno, CA 59.2% Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA 58.1% Modesto, CA 57.0% Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 56.4% Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR 55.1% Jackson, MS 55.1% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX 55.0% Columbia, SC 55.0% Urban Honolulu, HI 54.9% Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY 54.8% Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA 54.6% Spokane-Spokane Valley, WA 53.8% MSA Name Highest Share of Non-Essential Workers Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV 61.2% Provo-Orem, UT 61.1% Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL 56.7% Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 56.6% Raleigh-Cary, NC 56.3% Greenville-Anderson, SC 56.1% Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX 56.0% Wichita, KS 55.8% Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC-NC 55.0% Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI 54.9% Grand Rapids-Kentwood, MI 54.8% Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL 54.6% Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 54.3% Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR 54.1% Greensboro-High Point, NC 54.1%

Metros 100K-500K Population

MSA Name Highest Share of Essential Workers Hanford-Corcoran, CA 75.5% Jacksonville, NC 70.9% Madera, CA 68.4% Yakima, WA 68.3% El Centro, CA 67.6% Watertown-Fort Drum, NY 66.6% Pottsville, PA 66.4% Yuma, AZ 65.4% Salinas, CA 65.1% Rochester, MN 64.9% Cheyenne, WY 64.4% Lawton, OK 64.2% Springfield, IL 64.0% Wenatchee, WA 63.3% Visalia, CA 63.3% MSA Name Highest Share of Non-Essential Workers Ithaca, NY 69.3% Dalton, GA 68.2% Lawrence, KS 63.2% Bloomington, IN 63.1% Blacksburg-Christiansburg, VA 62.3% Lafayette-West Lafayette, IN 61.6% Auburn-Opelika, AL 61.1% College Station-Bryan, TX 61.1% Ann Arbor, MI 61.1% Elkhart-Goshen, IN 60.6% Boulder, CO 59.7% State College, PA 59.5% Bozeman, MT 59.3% Muncie, IN 58.6% Richmond-Berea, KY 58.5%

Metros Under 100K Population

MSA Name Highest Share of Essential Workers Susanville, CA 77.9% Othello, WA 77.8% Hinesville, GA 77.4% Dumas, TX 77.2% Mountain Home, ID 74.9% Hope, AR 74.7% Guymon, OK 74.6% Pecos, TX 74.4% Hereford, TX 74.2% Fort Leonard Wood, MO 73.6% Worthington, MN 73.0% Burley, ID 70.8% Grants, NM 70.6% Fort Morgan, CO 70.6% Huron, SD 70.4% MSA Name Highest Share of Non-Essential Workers Los Alamos, NM 81.8% Pullman, WA 68.1% Oxford, MS 66.1% Columbus, IN 65.5% Rexburg, ID 65.3% Vermillion, SD 64.8% Sturgis, MI 64.7% Calhoun, GA 63.5% Kokomo, IN 63.1% Moscow, ID 62.9% Laramie, WY 62.6% Warsaw, IN 62.5% Boone, NC 62.0% Stillwater, OK 62.0% Starkville, MS 61.4%

Example 1: Springfield, MO “Main Street”

Essential Non-Essential

Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores

Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores

Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores

Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores

Springfield, MO: Sporting goods/hobby stores

Example 2: Construction in Grand Rapids

Essential Non-Essential

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Construction in Grand Rapids-Kentwood MSA

Pivoting to Resilient, In-Demand Skills

Pivoting to Resilient, In-Demand Skills

• It won’t be ‘business-as-usual’ as we start

to re-open the economy.

• Strict guidelines and caution citizens will

likely result in a staggered recovery.

○ High risk occupations ○ Large group settings

• What was in-demand last week could be
• ut of style next week.

High Risk Occupations

• Based on data from US Department of Labor

/ O*NET.

• Occupations that require working in close

physical proximity to others.

• Includes both essential and non-essential

roles.

https://www.onetonline.org/find/descriptor/result/4.C.2.a.3

Large Group Settings

Total bummer but not a game-changer:

• Arts & Entertainment (sports, concerts, movies).
• Recreation & Tourism (cruises, resorts, casinos).
• Community Activities (festivals, farmer’s markets)

Very disruptive to everyday life:

• Schools & Childcare Centers

Not Just In-Demand. Resilient.

• The widely used phrase ‘rapidly changing economy’

took on an entirely new meaning last month.

• Labor supply-demand is a function of the economy --

ergo it can change just as fast.

• Resilience is the ability to withstand, to recover

quickly, to spring back.

• A workforce equipped with resilient skills is more:

○ Agile ○ Adaptive ○ ...Resilient

Not Just In-Demand. Resilient.

Emsi analytics for the Springfield, MO MSA (based on job postings from 3/1/20 to 4/15/20)

Covid-19 Resources Page

https://www.economicmodeling.com/covid-19-resources/

Questions?

Contact us!

John Hawkins jhawkins@economicmodeling.com Drew Repp drew.repp@economicmodeling.com

Thank you and stay healthy.