Disruption: Tip of the Spear or Tail of the Dog Scott Townsley - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Disruption: Tip of the Spear or Tail of the Dog Scott Townsley - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Disruption: Tip of the Spear or Tail of the Dog Scott Townsley scott@trilogyconnect.com 610.805.6303 Trilogy Consulting, LLC CCaH Providers Forum 1 DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG 2014 2014 Nas ashvil ille le 2017

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Disruption: Tip of the Spear or Tail of the Dog

Scott Townsley

scott@trilogyconnect.com ♦ 610.805.6303 Trilogy Consulting, LLC

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DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG CCaH Providers Forum 1

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CCaH Providers Forum 2

2014 2014

Nas ashvil ille le

2017 2017

New O w Orlea eans

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39,147 49,244 56,052 65,226 73,138 77,997 80,827 82,835 83,675 5,493 6,380 6,701 7,450 9,074 11,793 14,430 16,953 18,561

10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 2010 2016 2020 2026 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Age 65+ Age 85+

US US O Older er Adult P Pop

  • pulation
  • n G

Growth

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99.964% 0.036%

Market Share

Householders Age 65, $50k+ CCaH Members

US Market Share, C CCaH

Note: market share differs in individual markets

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DISRUPTION: TIP OF THE SPEAR OR TAIL OF THE DOG CCaH Providers Forum 6 5.8% 7.8% 4.5%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Future LTC/Health Care Needs Future financial resources Alzheimer's/Dementia Very Concerned

Older Adults Not Very Conc ncerne ned . . .

(Fi Five S Sur urveys, , 1,600 R Respo pond ndents, Age & & Inc ncome Q Qua ualified)

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11.4% 6.4% 36.0% 25.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Generic 'Stay at Home' Program Generic Retirement Community Very Interested Somewhat Interested

Hi High gher er I Inter eres est in ‘ ‘Stay a at Ho Home’ e’ P Prog

  • gram

(Fi Five s sur urveys, 1 1,600 Respo ponde dents, A Age & & Inc ncome Q Qua ualified) d)

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5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Home Care Nursing Home Very/Somewhat Negative Very/Somewhat Positive

Ne Negative e Reaction

  • n to ‘Nu

Nursing g Ho Home’ e’

(Fi Five S Sur urveys, , 1,600 R Respo pond ndents, Age & & Income me Qualif ifie ied)

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Disru rupti tion

“A disruption displaces an existing market, industry or technology and produces something new and more efficient and worthwhile. It is at once destructive and creative” Clayton Christensen

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Slow w Motion Disruption

“The Web site Zillow, which tracks property values, still attaches some value to lots that have been inundated by the Gulf

  • f Mexico, but local

residents say these lots are not so easy to sell.”

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Nearly 9 of ev ever ery 10 F 0 Fortune 5 e 500 c companies es i in 1 n 195 955 a are e go gone, merged o

  • r c

contracted

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“You know who should have invented Airbnb? Marriott Hotels. But they didn’t, because they’re so far up their own (anatomy) in the micro of running hotels that they could never, ever see outside of where they are. So, change instead comes from some eggheads down in Silicon Valley.”

“Disruption never comes from within. Every disruption is caused from the

  • utside because everybody on the inside

buys into the BS”

Robin Black, Canadian Mixed Martial Arts Analyst

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“Stability, not change, is the state that is most dangerous in highly dynamic competitive environments.”

Rita Gunther McGrath, 2013

“Their biggest problem is

  • complacency. . . In fact, they are

actually complacent about their attitude toward complacency” “Nokia watcher and industry

expert” in The End of Competitive Advantage (2013)

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Signs ns of D Disrup uption

  • Market forces – new options replacing out of

date/out of touch offerings. Attractive to broader

  • markets. Waning influence/appeal of NFP (in

decision-making)

  • Capital – from segments that are outside of aging,

at least by traditional definitions. Coming at a time when nonprofits struggle to keep up

  • Technology & analytics – enabling people to age

where they choose, and increasingly, how they choose

  • Payment – multidimensional change intended to

maximize shrinking (per capita) resources

  • Significant innovation – largely (but not

exclusively) from serial innovators not traditional providers

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Mos

  • st strateg

egie ies s are e a ‘spit t shine’ of the sta tatus quo

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It’s difficult to escape t the ‘pull’ of the status quo

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Who’s i investing in t the a aging ‘arena’

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How can w we d drive o

  • r direct d

disru ruption?

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Four fundamentals

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6½

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  • 1. Be driven by vision
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CCaH Providers Forum 33

  • 2. Get out of the bubble
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  • 3. Mission first,

You do you - last

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  • 4. To be a disruptor, one needs to be disruptive
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  • 5. Think like Google
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  • 6. Break conventions
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6 ½. Break the mindset

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Succe uccessful Continuing Car are at Home in n 2025 2025

  • 1. Will have created scale
  • 2. In part through increased market share
  • 3. Will be adept at creating/seizing opportunities

Successful CCaH in 2025

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How? w?

  • Assumption that existing advantages will come

under pressure From To

  • Conversations that reinforce existing

perspectives

  • Conversations that candidly question the status

quo

  • Relatively few and homogeneous people

involved in strategy process

  • Broader constituencies involved in strategy

process with diverse inputs

  • Precise but slow
  • Fast and roughly right
  • Prediction oriented
  • Discovery driven
  • NPV oriented
  • Options oriented
  • Seeking confirmation
  • Seeking disconfirmation
  • Talent directed to solving problems
  • Talent directed to identifying and seizing
  • pportunities
  • Extending a trajectory
  • Promoting continual shifts
  • Assumption that existing advantages will

persist

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5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% Home Care Nursing Home Very/Somewhat Negative Very/Somewhat Positive

Ne Negative e Reaction

  • n to ‘Nu

Nursing g Ho Home’ e’

(Fi Five S Sur urveys, , 1,600 R Respo pond ndents, Age & & Income me Qualif ifie ied)

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Positi tive i impact t of c care/wellness c coordinati tion

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

SNF and Assisted Living Utilization CCaH US CCRC

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1. The Ambidextrous Organization, O’Reilly and Tushman, Harvard Business Review (2004) 2. Autonomy: The Question to Build the Driverless Car and How It Will Transform Our World, Burns, Harper Collins (2018) 3. Business Model Generation, Osterwalder & Pigneur, John Wiley & Sons (2010) 4. Competing on Analytics, The New Science of Winning, Davenport & Harris, Harvard Business Review Press (2017) 5. The End of Competitive Advantage, Rita Gunther McGrath (2013) 6. Free: The Future of A Radical Price, Andeson, Hyperion Press (2010) 7. The Innovator’s DNA, Dyer, Gregersen and Christensen, Harvard Business Review (December 2009) or Harvard Business Review Press (2011) 8. The Innovator’s Method, Bringing The Lean Startup Into Your Organization, Furr and Dyer, Harvard Business Review Press (2014) 9. The Little Black Book of Innovation, Anthony, Harvard Business Review Press (2017) 10. The New Work of the Nonprofit Board, Holland, Chait and Taylor, Harvard Business Review (September/October 1996) 11. CCRCs and Life Plan Communities: A Heretic’s Perspective, Townsley, University of Maryland Baltimore County (2017) 12. Creating an Innovation Platform, Townsley, Trilogy Consulting, LLC (2019)

Resou

  • urces

es

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