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2 nd International Interdisciplinary Conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology, and Water Resources Management: Changes and Hazards caused by Human Interventions and Climate Change, Prague, Czech Republic, 22-23 September 2010 Water

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2nd International Interdisciplinary Conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology, and Water Resources Management:

Changes and Hazards caused by Human Interventions and Climate Change, Prague, Czech Republic, 22-23 September 2010

Water security of Sameura dam project under the influence of global climate changes in the western part of Japan

MASAHIRO MURAKAMI

Professor, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kochi University of Technology

22 September 2010

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This study examine the vulnerability of water resources under the influence global climate changes in the western part of Japan since 1970s when the sea surface water temperature along the pacific coast

  • f Kochi prefecture has started to increase by steps.

The sea surface water temperature along the coast of Kochi prefecture rose more than 2 ℃ in the past 25 years from 1975 to 2000, of which the increasing rate is alarming and among the highest in Japan island,

  • wing to the direct effect of warm Kuroshio (Black) current.

Frequent change of sea surface water temperature along the off-shore

  • f Koch has a relation with effect of global scale climatic changes such

as La-Nina and El-Nino

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SAMEURA

KOCHI

TAKAMATSU

Shikoku Island

Fig.1 Location map of the study area

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Fishing season may often be delayed in the future if global warming continues Bonito ride the warm Kuroshio or Black Current north to Sanriku from spring to summer.

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SASHIMI, Raw Fish of Bonito

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Sea Surface Water Temperature Monitoring

Legend：●(Ashizuri・Tosa Bay・Muroto）

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Fig.6 Annual change of sea surfaced water temperature from 1975 to 2000

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Ａｕｇｕｓｔ

E-Nino - La Nina and Annual Sea Surface Water Temperature Change in August at Tosa Bay in Kochi, Japan

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Glo lobal al Sea Sur urface ce Wate ter r Temper erat ature ure (El-Nin ino)

  • )

Equato tor

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Glo lobal al Sea Sur urface ce Wate ter r Temper erat ature ure (La La-Nin ina) a)

Equato tor

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Atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM ⇔ Down Scale Modeling

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GCM ⇔ Down Scale Modeling

Atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM), which has just been developed by Japan meteorological agency in 1997, suggests the significant influence of global warming on the long-term changes in rainfall patterns and intensity up to the middle of 21st century (2050). The temporal result of long-term forecasting is alarming with irregular extreme events of droughts and floods to fear the sustainable water use in the western part of Japan. It is, however, the grid size of GCM with 20kmx20m is not favor to simulate the local scale climatic changes including the river basins in Japan.

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East Asian monsoon

Mizuta et al. (2006) JMSJ Kitoh and Kusunoki (2007) ClimDyn

180km 20km 20km 20km 180km 180km

  • bs

180km 20km

  • bs
  • bs

20km Asian monsoon is evaluated well, but not yet for other parts of the world 120km 280km

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Future change in annual mean temperature and precipitation in and around Japan island, projected by 20-km-grid MRI-AGCM

(Meteorological Research Institute, Atmospheric General Circulation Model)

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Vulnerability of Water Resources

Under the influence of global climatic changes A Case of SAMEURA Dam in Kochi, Japan

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SAMEURA KOCHI TAKAMATSU

Shikoku Island

Fig.1 Location map of the study area

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800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 （年） （mm）

年間降雨量 トレンド 5年移動平均

(Year)

Rainfall

Annual Rainfall Trend 5 years average

Long-term trend of annual rainfall changes in Japan (1900–2000)

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50 70 90 110 130 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 % 降水量平年比 ト レンド 5年移動平均

Annual Rainfall Trend 5 Year Average

(Year)

Anomaly

(High Trend)

50 70 90 110 130 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 % 降水量平年比 ト レンド 5年移動平均

Annual Rainfall Trend 5 Year Average

(Year)

Anomaly

(High Trend)

Fig.2 Anomaly of annual rainfall in Japan (1900–2000)

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50 70 90 110 130 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 % 降水量平年比 ト レンド 5年移動平均

Annual Rainfall Trend 5 Year Average

(Year)

Anomaly

(High Trend)

Fig.3 Anomaly of annual rainfall in Takamatsu (1900–2000)

1,170mm 1,120mm

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50 70 90 110 130 150 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 % 降水量平年比 ト レンド 5年移動平均

Annual Rainfall Trend 5 Year Average

(Year)

Anomaly

(High Trend)

Fig.4 Anomaly of annual rainfall in Sameura (1900–2000)

2,900mm 3,190mm

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Drying up SAMEURA Dam in Kochi, Japan (31 July 1994)

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Daily Maximum Rainfall at Nakamura, Kochi

（1951～2006）

Year

Daily Maximum Rainfall (mm)

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Extreme Event

Total Rainfall in 23-25 September 1998

High Sea Surface Water Temperature

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Creeping Return Period of Daily Maximum Rainfall at Nakamura, Kochi

（Comparison between [1951-1982] and [1951-2006] by Gumbel Method）

Return Period: 1/100, Max. Daily Rainfall : 382mm

(1/57) (1/100) 0)

Daily Maximum Rainfall (mm)

確率（年）

1/1 1/2 1/50 1/100 ) ( ) exp( 1 ) ( x x a y e x P

y

   

Return Period 1/30 X: Rainfall，x0: Average of x 1/5 1/20 1/10 1/80

Return Period: 1/50, Max. Daily Rainfall : 347mm

(1/31) (1/50)

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Influence of Global –Regional Climatic Changes On Eco-Security (Fish Ecology)

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Legend

  • Ashizuri, Kochi, Muroto

Legend

  • Ashizuri, Kochi, Muroto

Legend

  • Ashizuri, Kochi, Muroto
  • Fig. 5 Monitoring points of sea surface water temperature
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Fig.7 Monthly change of sea surfaced water temperature from 1975 to 2000

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The annual f i sh pr

  • ducti
  • n

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

year t

Kochi Prefecture Shimanto river except for Shimanto river

Fig.2 The annual fish production

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http://www.agri.pref.kanagawa.jp/suisoken/naisui/fishfile/syumei.htm

Sea Upper Reaches Lower Reaches Middle Reaches AYU（Plecoglossus altivelis） Life Cycle

Winter Season Spring Season Autumn Season Summer Season

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Ayu （Plecoglossus altivelis） stays at off shore of Pacific ocean during winter season

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Fig.3-A The relation between annual fish production and sea surface water temperature (in October to December)

<Takahashi;Nishinihon Institute of Technology >

Fig.3-B Fig.3-C

The Change of seawater surface temperature and annual fish production of the Shimanto river

The sea sur f ace w at er t em per at ur e

15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 25. 27. 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 year ℃

Octover Noveｍber December Average

The monthly record of sea surface water tempareture

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 year ℃

21.8℃ 23.2℃ 20.5℃ 22.5 ℃

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  • Fig. 8 Correlation between annual fish production of Ayu (Plecoglossus

altuvelis) and sea surface water temperature from October to December

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Summary

Amount of AYU （Plecoglossus altivelis） and Salmon River Improvement Works River Restoration Works Global Warming

dam, weirs, embankment, dykes for flood protection and water use (Naturnaher Wasserbau) El Nino and La Nina sea surface water temperature

Shimanto River

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Concluding Remarks

Vulnerability assessment of water resources and prediction

  • f future climatic changes in a framework of the basin

scale downscale modeling under the influence of global scale climate change is a new agenda for the integrated water resources policy to manage the future natural disasters including floods, drought and eco-system.

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Thank you for your attention

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