Ultra Fast Broadband update Graham Mitchell, Chief Executive Officer - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Ultra Fast Broadband update Graham Mitchell, Chief Executive Officer TEL.CON12 17 April 2012 Topics for today: Progress with deployment Likely sources of demand UFB opportunities for RSPs International developments Summary

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Ultra Fast Broadband update

Graham Mitchell, Chief Executive Officer

TEL.CON12

17 April 2012

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17 April 2012 2

Topics for today:

  • Progress with

deployment

  • Likely sources of

demand

  • UFB opportunities for RSPs
  • International developments
  • Summary
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17 April 2012 3

Deployment progress:

  • 14 urban centres underway
  • All urban centres underway during 2012-13
  • Target 70K premises by 30/6

10% 19% 10% 61%

Year 1 premises passed:

Images: Northpower Fibre, Whangarei; Chorus, Kelson

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17 April 2012 4

Long term deployment view:

Premises Passed by Segment (Cumulative) Premises Passed by Partner (Incremental per annum)

Priority Premises Passed Non Priority Premises Passed

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Notes: graphs show years to end June.

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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17 April 2012 5

UFB progress:

~60,000 end users, mostly businesses, can access UFB P2P & Dark Fibre on demand today

Penrose / East Tamaki / Manukau:

Illustrative

Christchurch:

UFB Year 1 & 2 Business Fibre

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17 April 2012 6

Deployment consultation:

  • Local Councils: Successful

consultation on Year 2 plans

  • Schools: All candidate areas

commencing Year 2

  • Health: DHBs consulted by Health IT Board, CFH and MED
  • Business: Focus on specific sectors & industry verticals

Stakeholder consultation is ongoing & suggests growing momentum in UFB build will drive reasonable uptake

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17 April 2012 7

UFB schools deployment:

16.5% 18.2% 34.4% 30.9% 241 265 502 451 1459

Pre-UFB fibred schools FY12 UFB plan (to 30 June) FY13 Chorus commitment Balance to finish Total urban schools

100%

Number

  • f schools

300 600 900 1200 1500

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17 April 2012 8

School usage of UFB:

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17 April 2012 9

Digital Leadership Forums:

Local communities are taking the lead in building programs to maximise UFB & RBI opportunities

Whangarei

Auckland

Hamilton Tauranga New Plymouth Napier-Hastings Wanganui

Wellington

Nelson

Christchurch

Dunedin Invercargill

Digital Leadership Forum in action Digital Leadership Forum being explored/ instigated Other digital strategy initiative(s)

NOT EXHAUSTIVE

Purpose: Brings together local stakeholders on demand & supply side to realise UFB benefits Objectives: To develop & execute a strategy to realise local economic development goals using UFB

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17 April 2012 10

Likely sources of demand: Priority segments

  • GCIO

priorities

  • WAN
  • WAN on fibre
  • Strong CIO demand
  • VM-ware
  • Centralising IT
  • Video conferencing
  • Collaboration
  • Cloud
  • Remote working
  • Pent-up

demand

  • National data
  • e-learning
  • Network For

Learning Enterprise: Health: SME: Carrier: Government:

  • Imaging
  • VC

consultation

  • Aligned

Health IT plan

  • Cost reduction
  • WAN
  • VoIP
  • Cloud apps &

back-up

  • Remote working
  • 3G & LTE
  • Non-Building

Address Points

  • Community

Wi-Fi

  • SCADA

Schools:

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17 April 2012 11

Likely sources of demand: Residential

  • Higher speed Internet access
  • Back-up & cloud based storage
  • Working at & from home
  • Extended school learning
  • Advanced gaming
  • Real-time entertainment
  • Home security

Examples:

Home VC, uploading media

Home Monitoring & Control

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17 April 2012 12

In the Home: Video is changing

  • Netflix Movies: 33% of US peak download
  • HBO Go app hits 1 million downloads in first week
  • OIPF TV Browser, supported

by all major TV OEMs

  • AT&T/Cisco release of

wireless set-top box – no more cables !

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Real-Time Entertainment dominating:

  • Asia-Pac: PPStream and PPLive together account > 37% of the upstream.
  • P2P file sharing and web browsing diminishing
  • Internet is being increasingly used as a broadcast entertainment medium

17 April 2012

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US: Internet Peak now looks like TV peak

  • US daily maximum ~ 8:45 p.m. to 10:45 p.m.
  • Within 6 months peak period reduced from 2.5 to 2 hours
  • AsiaPac peak at 9pm to 11.30pm
  • Entertainment Video concurrency ratios much higher than internet

17 April 2012

UFB not contended, allowing high concurrency & quantity for video

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Data usage growing:

  • Netflix user averages 40-80 GB/month (5-10 movies)
  • Growth entertainment driven – local
  • Locally hosted to minimise latency/cost

17 April 2012

Source: Sandvine Network Demographics, Nov 2011.

Day Week Month Upstream 384.9MB 2.3GB 6.6GB Downstream 1.3GB 8.9GB 24.2GB Aggregate 1.7GB 11.2GB 30.8GB Mean consumption Asia-Pacific Fixed Access

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17 April 2012 16

Performance beyond the UFB PoI:

Corporate Office Household Household 100/50 Mbps 10/2.5 CIR <1ms

UFB PoI

ISP:

  • CIR ?
  • Mbps ?
  • ms ?

UFB Network RSP backhaul & cloud UFB Network delivers high quality; RSPs control experience beyond PoI

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17 April 2012 17

Home wiring: Double play

Home wiring should not be an issue for most UFB users

Copper Ethernet Coaxial cable Fibre

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Verizon FiOS continues to grow ARPU and share in highly competitive US market

Case study: FiOS (USA)

17 April 2012

  • FTTH 61% of consumer revenue:
  • 20% YoY growth in triple play
  • ARPU US$148+
  • FiOS video:
  • 4.2m subscribers, 194 net adds
  • 32% penetration
  • FiOS Internet:
  • 4.8m subscribers, 201 net adds
  • 36% penetration
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Case study: HKBN (Hong Kong)

In a highly competitive telco market, HKBN has 30% FTTP uptake & increasing profits.

17 April 2012

Example plans:

  • 100Mbps plan: NZ$31/ month
  • 1Gbps plan: $42/ month
  • International speeds: 20Mbps
  • Wi-Fi hotspots free
  • Free mobile handset or retail

voucher.

Net additions (‘000)

Total market adds (31 Dec Y/E)* HKBN adds (31 Aug Y/E) Source: OTFA, Hong Kong regulator.

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17 April 2012 20

Case study: NBN Co retail plans

Willunga, South Australia: 29% uptake Kiama, NSW: 26% uptake

Speed: (Mbps) Cap: (GB) Price: (A$) Features: 25 / 5 200 $74.90 25 / 5 120

50 peak, 70 off peak

$64.94

  • All local &

national calls

  • No set-up fee
  • 24 month

contract

  • ABC iView, Fetch

TV etc. zero- rated

  • $30 of voice

calls

  • $79 setup fee
  • 24 month

contract

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17 April 2012 21

Summary:

  • Deployment advancing:

– Substantial coverage by 30 June 2012 + 2013 – UFB P2P available now in most CBDs

  • All UFB networks activated mid-2012
  • Opportunity for RSP differentiation:

– Upstream from UFB – Packages – Applications / content

  • FTTH gaining momentum internationally
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17 April 2012 22

Thank you!

CFH contact: Rohan MacMahon, Strategy Director E: rohan.macmahon <at> crownfibre.govt.nz Ph: 09 912 1970