UDI CAPITAL REGION OCTOBER 3, 2017
CITY OF DETROIT NEIGHBORHOOD RETAIL OPPORTUNITY STUDY CLIENT ASK Analyze retail market conditions and opportunities for Detroit’s key commercial corridors. OUTCOME Project in progress. Completed a full-scale retail inventory, market analysis, and a series of stakeholder engagement meetings.
FLINT, MI: GROCERY MARKET STUDY CLIENT ASK Create a retail strategy to reverse the “Food Desert” condition of the city following the water crisis. OUTCOME The Flint & Genesee Chamber of Commerce will administer a $55,000 grant to assist existing grocery stores to ensure higher quality of food offerings.
UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA CLIENT ASK Create a retail strategy for the University’s on- and off-campus holdings to be implemented into a new retail master plan. OUTCOME A retail market analysis, space assessment, and recommendations including the impacts on food trucks and dining halls on adjacent retail demand.
BOSTON SEAPORT DISTRICT RETAIL STRATEGY CLIENT ASK Research, analysis, and recommendations for the development of the Seaport World Trade Center in Boston’s Seaport District. OUTCOME A retail market analysis that considers the existing retail inventory, existing and planned development, and their populations in the rapidly changing retail landscape of the Boston Seaport.
The Future of Retail
LOOK TO THE PAST…
RETAIL CATEGORIES General Merchandise, Neighborhood Goods & Food & Beverage Apparel, Furnishings, & Services Other • Restaurants • Grocery • Department Stores • Bars • Pharmacy • Jewelry Stores • Coffee Shops • Florist • Electronic Stores • Juice Bars • Dry Cleaners • Card Stores • Ice Cream Parlor • Nail/Hair Salon • Home Décor Stores
PURPOSE OF RETAIL Retail as Identity Retail as Amenity Retail as $$$ Generator Retail as Place-Creation Retail as Commerce
WHAT DOES YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD WANT? Who wants a bakery in our neighborhood?
OUR PROCESS Universe of Possibilities Market Analysis Potential Site Conditions Retail strategy that can be successfully implemented.
RETAIL ECONOMICS equilibrium
DEMAND/SUPPLY Total Amount of Total Amount and Customers and Type of Retail Spending Establishments
HOW MUCH IS TOO MUCH?
DENSITY AND RETAIL
DENSITY AND VICTORIA+ Total 322,919 Population Total HHs 145,385 Median Age 42.9 Bachelor Degree or 31.7% higher
SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE – VICTORIA+ EDITION Grocery Stores: • Food purchased from stores spending: $1.2 billion annually • Average store size: 1,650 sm • Average sales per square meter: $6,000/sm Est. 115 grocery stores
SUPPORTABLE RETAIL SPACE – VICTORIA+ EDITION Restaurants: • Food purchased from stores spending: $600 million annually • Average store size: 200 sm • Average sales per square meter: $5,000/sm Est. 550 restaurants & cafes
IN THE US… Dining out experiences have exceeded spending on goods. Not so in B.C. B.C. grocery $ doubles restaurant $ (2016)
WHAT DENSITY MEANS TO RETAIL National retailers need density to plug into a delivery infrastructure. BUT… Makes room for local stores Mitigates ecommerce impacts www.forbes.com
HOUSEHOLD RETAIL SPENDING 25% 20% 55% General Neighborhood Food + Merchandise Goods + Services Beverage 3% (vs. 9% US) Ecommerce Source: Statistics Canada, Reuters
ROLE OF LOCAL RETAILERS IN VICTORIA ECOSYSTEM
THE RETURN OF REGIONALISM Tourism! Keeping money in the local economy Authenticity Be careful of GAFO volatility… www.tourismvictoria.com
BROAD BASE OF APPEAL Neighborhood Goods & Services + Food & Beverage
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL Stores as warehouses Flexible retail design Innovation in delivery systems Amazon as the Blob? The end of community?
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL NOW, MORE THAN EVER: + Right Tenant + Right Place + Right Timing + Right Design + Right Amount
THE FUTURE OF RETAIL IN THE CAPITAL REGION Growing international interest… Ecommerce increasingly undermines GAFO businesses www.barkingdogstudio.ca Local tenants embrace bigger role in community building Authentic tourism Flexible design Go out to eat!
THANK YOU www.streetsense.com / DC / MD / NY / SF
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