UAE-INDIA-AFRICA Commodities Trade Triangle Rabobank Group May - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Rabobank Group UAE-INDIA-AFRICA Commodities Trade Triangle

May 2016

3

Table of contents

Sections

I 1 II 8 III 13 IV V 26 41

SOUTHERN AFRICA SOUTHERN AFRICA UAE TRADE EASTERN AFRICA INDIA - UAE TRADE CONTACT DETAILS

i

Data Sourcing and Reliability

This research exercise has utilized a number of sources in collection and verifjcation of data pertaining commodities import and export fmows between economies. Data has, by and large, been verifjed and found to be reliable with minimal variation between authoritative sources except for the case of Angola where data has been patchy and UN Comtrade used as the sole source. The main sources of data for this exercise are:

• United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database ( UN Comtrade) - This has been the primary source of data given the

interest in commodities trade involving the United Arab Emirates, India and Rabobank Africa economies. The research fjndings provide the top ten commodities traded between the economies as reported in 2014

• Ministry of Commerce and Industry India and Ministry of Economy United Arab Emirates - These have been used for

verifjcation of data reported by UN Comtrade

• Business Monitor International, World Integrated Trade Solution (World Bank) and OEC Data - These have been used as an

additional sound board for the reliability of data reported by aforementioned sources Note: There are instances in which a commodity can be found both in the import and export of a country/region (for example, Mineral Fuels and Oils are both Southern Africa’s top export to and top import from India) . This is attributable to the practice of re-exports between economies in view of value addition.

ii

Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, Ministry of Commerce and Trade India, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

SOUTHERN AFRICA

I

2

GDP Size: USD 512.2 Bln GDP per Capita: USD 4,311.4 Average Regional GDP Growth ’09 – ’14: 5.2% Population: 118.8 Mln Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) ‘04 – ’14: 2.1%

68.3% 23.2% 5.3% 3.2%

South Africa Angola Zambia Mozambique

Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, StratLink Africa

Population Regional GDP by States

95,000,000 100,000,000 105,000,000 110,000,000 115,000,000 120,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Rabobank Southern Africa: Region at a Glance

3

• South Africa - Attractive Outlook for Both India and UAE: South Africa dominates trade between the Southern African region

and both UAE and India backed by years of strong bilateral ties and South Africa’s standing as a major trade and commerce hub in Africa. We expect the ties with India to be strengthened further in the coming years following the two economies co-existence in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China) which seeks to cement co-operation between emerging markets

• Zambia - Growing Ties with India Bolters Outlook: Zambia’s trade with India is on the uptick especially from the imports

standpoint whereas trade with the UAE is tending towards fmat-lining in both imports and exports. India and Zambia have signed a number of bilateral agreements in the last decade and are bound to remain strategic partners going forward. Zambia’s Ministry of Trade indicated in 2012 that is seeks to increase total trade with India to exceed USD 1.0 Billion from an estimated USD 375.0 Million at the earliest possible. As of 2014, total trade has grown by 17.5% to USD 441.8 Million. Between 2009 and 2014, Zambia posted the fastest growth in imports from India (CAGR) at 25.4% compared to South Africa’s 20.6% and Mozambique’s 6.0%

• Mozambique - Attractive Outlook on trade with UAE: Trade between Mozambique and UAE is growing strongly refmecting

heightened efgorts in the last decade to boost trade. Reports indicate that Mozambique has urged UAE to use it as the gateway to the Southern African market. Mozambique’s imports from UAE grew by 44.6% between 2009 and 2014, compared to South Africa’s 25.8% and Zambia’s 19.8%. The country’s exports to UAE grew by 69.6% in the same period, outpacing South Africa’s 18.1% and Zambia’s 10.4% Key Development: The India – Africa Summit has grown in prominence as a major global forum that is linking one of the world’s major emerging economies (India) with major frontier markets in the African region. We expect to see strengthened ties, trade and otherwise, in the next decade especially as India looks to countervail the dominance of China in Africa

Sources: The Hindu Newspaper, UN Comtrade, gulfnews.com, StratLink Africa

Rabobank Southern Africa Key Highlights

4 Angola’s Crude Petroleum Exports to India (USD) Southern Africa Copper Exports to India (USD)

4,820,640,306 5,944,948,844 7,951,254,612 6,729,543,031 5,462,948,213

• 1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 7,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 9,000,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

10,029,607 84,820,082 257,667,906 266,217,365 188,608,682

50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 300,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: Angola is the only country in (Rabobank) Southern Africa exporting Crude Petroleum to India Notes:

• This refers to Copper (refined and unrefined), Copper Alloys and Copper Anodes
• Only Zambia and South Africa export copper to India

Southern Africa Exports To India

5 Southern Africa Lead Exports to India (USD) Southern Africa Aluminum Exports to India (USD)

Notes:

• This refers Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys (Unwrought)
• Only South Africa and Angola export the commodity to India

Notes:

• This refers Lead and Lead Alloys (Unwrought)
• 2010 data includes South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique and Angola; 2011 data

includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 2012 and 2014 data includes Angola, Mozambique and South Africa; 2013 data includes only Mozambique and South Africa

3,624,311 2,920,577 2,469,421 2,617,556 4,756,322

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

54,004,718 67,442,028 56,984,058 85,453,096 18,134,905

10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Southern Africa Exports To India (Cont’d)

6

India Exports to Southern Africa

Notes:

• This refers to Nitrogenous fertilizer
• 2010 data includes Angola, Mozambique and South Africa; 2011 and 2012 data

includes Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia; 2013 data has only Mozambique and South Africa whilst 2014 data has only Angola and South Africa Notes:

• 2010 , 2011, 2013 and 2014 data includes Mozambique, South Africa and

Zambia; 2012 data includes Angola, South Africa, Mozambique and Zambia

India’s Sugar Exports to Southern Africa (USD) India’s Fertilizer Exports to Southern Africa (USD)

87,223 69,492 2,043,849 627,906 6,150,649

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1,337,246 710,861 15,783,447 597,954 26,867

2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Surge aributed to massive imports by Mozambique that stood at $ 14,687,477

7

Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

Southern Africa Top Exports to India 2013 (USD) India Top Exports to Southern Africa 2013 (USD)

7,270 420 288 230 176 141 128 123 99 78

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Mineral Fuels & Oils Iron & Steel Ores, Slag & Ash Chemicals (Organic & Inorganic) Pearls & Precious Stones Precious Metals Aluminium Copper Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Wood Pulp & Fibrous Cellulosic

Millions Millions

1,800 1,209 657 473 358 273 219 158 109 72

500 1,000 1,500 2,000

Mineral Fuels & Oils Vehicles (other then rail & tramway) Pharmaceuticals Electricals & Electronic Equipment Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Cereals Chemicals & Chemical Products Iron & Steel Meat & Edible Meat Offal Pearls & Precious Metals

II

SOUTHERN AFRICA UAE TRADE

9

Southern Africa Exports to UAE

Notes:

• Only Zambia exports Copper to the UAE

Zambia Copper Exports to UAE (USD) Southern Africa Aluminium Exports to UAE (USD)

160,373,368 53,135,270 186,074,300 225,498,345 128,673,449

50,000,000 100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

18,620,772 25,669,000 16,705,592 13,109,616 11,156,871

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Notes:

• This refers to Aluminum and Aluminum alloys
• South Africa is the main exporter

10

UAE Exports to Southern Africa

UAE Crude Petroleum Exports to Southern Africa (USD)

Notes:

• South Africa and Zambia import crude petroleum from the UAE
• South Africa accounts for over 90.0% of the crude petroleum imports

556,520,608 473,945,650 452,573,441 256,310,463 677,925,933

100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000 700,000,000 800,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UAE Fertilizer Exports to Southern Africa (USD)

14,274,408 93,106,028 63,547,905 63,658,423 50,431,563

10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000 100,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Notes:

• This refers to Nitrogenous fertilizer
• 2010 and 2011 data has only South Africa and Zambia; 2012, 2013 and 2014

include Mozambique, South Africa and Zambia

11

Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

Southern Africa Top Exports to UAE 2013 (USD) UAE Top Exports to Southern Africa 2013 (USD)

1,079 254 250 196 190 188 82 71 68 43

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Precious Metals & Stones Mineral Fuels & Oils Copper Edible Fruits, Vegetables, Roots & Nuts Beverages, Spirits & Vinegar Electricals & Electronic Equipment Iron & Steel Vehicles (Except Rail & Tramway) Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Ores, Slag & Ash

Millions

Vehicles (Other than Rail & Tramways) Mineral Fuels & Oils Nuclear Reactors & Boilers Electricals & Electronic Equipment Fertilizer Plastics & Articles thereof Cereals Inorganic Chemicals Precious Metals & Stones Textile Articles 1,126 1,057 101 84 84 82 45 26 24 23

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200

Millions

12 Trade with UAE (2014) Trade with India 2014 (USD)

Other Southern Africa: Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Malawi

Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

Rabobank Southern Africa: Regional Perspective

92.1% 86.2%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Imports from UAE Exports to UAE

Rabobank Southern Africa Other Southern Africa

91.0% 88.9%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Imports from India Exports to India

Rabobank Southern Africa Other Southern Africa

III

EASTERN AFRICA

14

Rabobank Eastern Africa: Region at a Glance

GDP Size: USD 179.6 Bln GDP per Capita: USD 737.0 Average Regional GDP Growth ’09 – ’14: 6.6% Population: 243.7 Mln Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) ‘04 – ’14: 2.9%

Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, StratLink Africa

Population Regional GDP by States

31.3% 28.4% 21.2% 14.6% 4.4%

Kenya Ethiopia Tanzania Uganda Rwanda

180,000,000.0 190,000,000.0 200,000,000.0 210,000,000.0 220,000,000.0 230,000,000.0 240,000,000.0 250,000,000.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

15

Rabobank Eastern Africa Key Highlights

• Kenya - Positive outlook for both India and UAE: Kenya, often referred to as the ‘gateway to Eastern Africa’ remains an important trade partner

for UAE in the Eastern African region owing to its status as the distribution and business hub of Eastern Africa. We anticipate stronger ties between Kenya and UAE after the latter announced plans to upgrade its Nairobi mission to be the largest in Africa. Similarly, India and Kenya have growing commercial and trade ties and India remains the largest exporter to Kenya. In 2014, Kenya signed a trade agreement with the UAE, The Promotion and Protection of Investments, which we expect should bolster trade between the two countries

• Tanzania - Growing ties with both UAE and India: Tanzania has emerged as a noteworthy trading partner for both India and UAE, making it

the highest Eastern Africa importer to both countries. India and Tanzania have signed a number of bilateral agreements in the last decade that have served to bolster trade between the two countries. Notably, the changing dynamics of Tanzania’s trade relations, from developed markets to emerging markets in the past fjve years, have underscored the growing importance of nontraditional trade partners, such as the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa)

• Uganda - Plateaud Trade with Positive Outlook for UAE: Trade between Uganda and both India and UAE has been on a general fmat lining

trend in the past decade particularly from the exports perspective. Uganda and UAE signed a double taxation memorandum of understanding in 2014 that is expected to boost bilateral relations between the partners going forward. Similarly, in August 2015, UAE announced plans to set up free trade zones in Uganda enhancing trade outlook between the two partners

• Rwanda - Enhanced Outlook from Growing ties with India: Trade between Rwanda, which has consistently ranked as the most competitive

economy in the region, and both UAE and India is highly skewed towards imports into Rwanda, while exports from Rwanda to the two nations are small. UAE exports to Rwanda declined by 87.4% to USD 20.1 Million in between 2011 and 2014, a matter that could have prompted the visit by the UAE minister of State for Foreign Afgairs’ to Rwanda in February 2015 to strengthen bilateral and trade ties. On the other hand, India exports to Rwanda increased three-fold to USD 134.7 Million over the same period, refmecting a probable shift in trading partners

• Ethiopia - Positive Outlook on Trade with UAE: Imports from UAE have been on the uptick, while exports to UAE tend to be fmat-lining. Imports

from UAE increased four-fold to USD 827.2 between 2011 and 2014 signaling growing ties. The strengthening ties are attributed to opening up

• f UAE embassy in Ethiopia in 2010 as well as the Dubai’s Annual Africa Global Business Forum, which has played a signifjcant role in improving

the bilateral trade relations between the two countries. We expect that the newly established Ethio-UAE Joint Ministerial Commission will strengthen the bilateral relations going forward

Sources: The Hindu Newspaper, Gulf News, All Africa.com, The Monitor, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

16

Eastern Africa Exports to India

Eastern Africa Cofgee Exports to India (USD) Eastern Africa Cocoa Exports to India (USD)

Notes:

• This refers to raw Cocoa beans only
• Data between 2010 and 2012 covers Uganda only whilst that of 2013, 2014 and

2015 suggests Tanzania began exporting Cocoa beans to India Notes:

• This refers to unroasted cofgee exclusively
• 2010 includes data for Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda; 2011, 2012 and 2013

include data for Kenya and Uganda only; whilst 2014 includes data for Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 8,644,100 10,581,200 12,212,900 18,092,500 16,870,800

8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1,896,968 3,237,329 4,086,673 5,717,627 10,339,428

2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

17

India Exports to Eastern Africa

India Rice Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) India Edible Oil Exports to Eastern Africa (USD)

Notes:

• This refers to oil from Soya Beans
• 2010 data has only Ethiopia; 2011 data has only Ethiopia and Kenya; 2012 data

has only Kenya; 2013 and 2014 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania Notes:

• 2011 data includes only Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. 2012, 2013,

and 2014 include the four countries plus Rwanda

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 34,069,897 50,782,938 44,323,998 33,161,775

20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000 50,000,000 55,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

52,460 65,889 28,010 446,601 291,279

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Surge aributed to massive imports by Mozambique that stood at $ 14,687,477

18

India Exports to Eastern Africa (Cont’d)

India Sugar Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) India Fertilizer Exports to Eastern Africa (USD)

Notes:

• This refers Nitrogenous Fertilizer
• 2010 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania; 2011, 2013 and 2014 includes

Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania; 2012 Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania Notes:

• This refers to Sugar (Beet or Cane in solid form)
• 2011 data refmects Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda whilst that for 2012, 2013 and

2014 includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Ethiopia

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 40,057,657 103,649,676 66,429,940 41,118,240

20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000

2011 2012 2013 2014

1,336,569 1,924,538 1,772,846 1,966,085 783,823

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

19

India Exports to Eastern Africa (Cont’d)

India Wheat Exports to Eastern Africa (USD)

Notes:

• This refers to Wheat (including Spelt and Meslin), unmilled
• Data includes Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania

85,220,574 25,485,962

10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 90,000,000

2012 2013

20

Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

Eastern Africa Top Exports to India 2013 (USD) India Top Exports to Eastern Africa 2013 (USD)

Millions

533 325 192 86 64 57 42 21 13 10

100 200 300 400 500 600

Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins, Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers Milling products, malt, starches, inulin, wheat glute Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder Coffee, tea, mate and spices Inorganic chemicals, precious metal compound, isotope Wood and articles of wood Raw hides, skins and leather Fish, crustaceans, molluscs

Millions

4,038 782 478 472 412 368 245 167 138 102

5 1,005 2,005 3,005 4,005 5,005

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, Pharmaceutical products Iron and steel Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery Vehicles other than railway, tramway Electrical, electronic equipment Cereals Articles of iron or steel Plastics and articles thereof Sugars and sugar confectionery

21

Eastern Africa Exports to UAE

Eastern Africa Cofgee Exports to UAE (USD) Eastern Africa Cocoa Exports to UAE (USD)

Notes:

• Only Uganda exports Cocoa to the United Arab Emirates
• There was no data available between 2010 and 2012. This could also suggest

there were no Cocoa exports to UAE in those years Notes:

• 2010 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda; 2011, 2012 and 2014 data

include only Ethiopia and Uganda; 2013 data includes Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 547,379 768,680 2,092,809 8,676,560 5,027,678

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

299,587 195,985

50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

2013 2014

22

Eastern Africa Exports to UAE (Cont’d)

Eastern Africa’s Zinc Exports to UAE (USD) UAE Rice Export to Eastern Africa (USD)

Note: Data for 2010 and 2013 includes Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia and Rwanda; 2011 and 2012 include Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania; 2014 includes Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania Notes:

• This refers to Zinc Ores and Concentrates
• Only Uganda exports Zinc to the UAE
• There was no data reported for 2013

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 4,320 17,354 34,220 25,800

5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

885,221 283,388 594,239 1,599,383 540,848

200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

23

UAE Exports to Eastern Africa

UAE Fertilizer Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) UAE Sugar Exports to Eastern Africa (USD)

Notes:

• This refers to Sugar (beet or cane in solid form)
• 2010 data includes Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania; 2011 and 2012 include only

Ethiopia, Uganda, Rwanda and Tanzania; 2013 data includes only Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia Notes:

• This refers to nitrogenous fertilizer
• 2010 data includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia; 2011 and

2012 include only Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania; 2013 data includes only Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 3,382,046 2,146,762 1,004,919 7,733,029

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

3,545,283 2,996,067 22,976,865 9,895,367

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

Surge aributed to steep rise in demand from Ethiopia that stood at $ 19,410,246

24

UAE Exports to Eastern Africa (Cont’d)

UAE Edible Oil Exports to Eastern Africa (USD) UAE Maize Exports to Eastern Africa (USD)

Notes:

• This refers to unmilled maize
• 2010 and 2013 data includes Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Ethiopia;

2011 and 2014 data includes Ethiopia, Rwanda, Uganda and Tanzania; 2012 data includes Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania Notes:

• This refers to oil from Soya Beans
• 2010, 2011 and 2012 data includes Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda and Ethiopia;

2013 data includes only Ethiopia, Rwanda and Tanzania

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solutions Database, StratLink Africa 437,973 1,283,150 2,115,701 728,106

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000

2010 2011 2012 2013

84,091 51,933 46,872 99,735 163,391

20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

25

Sources: UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

Eastern Africa Top Exports to UAE 2013 (USD) UAE Top Exports to Eastern Africa 2013 (USD)

Millions

95 89 59 46 28 27 22 22 20 19

20 40 60 80 100

Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins Coffee, tea, mate and spices Meat and edible meat offal Electrical, electronic equipment Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers Live trees, plants, bulbs, roots, cut flowers etc Fish, crustaceans, molluscs, aquatic invertebrates ne Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery Residues, wastes of food industry, animal fodder

Millions

2,080 223 170 78 139 101 95 78 33 28

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery, Plastics and articles thereof Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Electrical, electronic equipment Vehicles other than railway, tramway Sugars and sugar confectionery Salt, sulphur, earth, stone, plaster, lime and cement Other made textile articles, sets, worn clothing Miscellaneous chemical products

IV

INDIA - UAE TRADE

27

Sources: Business Monitor International, World Bank, UAE Ministry of Economy, StratLink Africa

UAE Real GDP Growth vs Population India Real GDP Growth vs Population

• 3.0%
• 2.0%
• 1.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 7,500,000 7,700,000 7,900,000 8,100,000 8,300,000 8,500,000 8,700,000 8,900,000 9,100,000 9,300,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Population GDP (RHS) 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 1,200.0 1,220.0 1,240.0 1,260.0 1,280.0 1,300.0 1,320.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Population (Mln) GDP (RHS)

UAE and INDIA: Economies at a Glance

• GDP Size: USD 390.0 Bln
• GDP per Capita: USD 43,333.3
• Average GDP Growth ’09 – ’14: 4.1%
• Population (2014): 9.1 Mln
• Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) ‘09 – ’14: 4.6%

United Arab Emirates India

• GDP Size: USD 2,054.8 Bln
• GDP per Capita: USD 1, 586.4
• Average GDP Growth ’09 – ’14: 7.3%
• Population (2014): 1,295.3 Mln
• Average Population Growth Rate (Y-o-Y) ‘09 – ’14: 1.3%

28 India’s Exports to and Imports from UAE(USD Billions)

• UAE - Declining Trade: The UAE and India have enjoyed close

political and economic ties which have translated into a rapidly expanding economic partnership. This has made India UAE’s second largest trading partner. However, trade between India and UAE is trending towards a decline

• Both India’s exports to and imports from UAE declined by 4.3%

and 27.8% to 32.9 Billion and 27.3 Billion, respectively, in 2014. The decline in trade could be attributed to the soured relations between the partners after UAE’s open criticism of India during the 2013 Indo-Pakistan border clashes

• We expect increasing trade ties going forward, nonetheless, in

view of the August 2015 visit by India’s Prime minister after a 34-year hiatus. Moreover, India and the UAE have several trade pacts including the critical Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement signed in 2013 with a view to the UAE investing USD 2.0 Billion in Indian infrastructure projects

Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Exports Imports

29

India Exports to UAE

India Maize Exports to UAE (USD) India Wheat Exports to UAE (USD)

10,026,382 40,867,797 22,743,375 21,952,929 12,439,421

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 560 11,734,761 110,294,202 170,106,322 163,289,496

20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: This refers to Wheat (including spelt) and meslin, unmilled Note: This refers to Maize (not including sweet corn), unmilled

30

India Exports to UAE (Cont’d)

India Lead Exports to UAE (USD)

Note: This refers to Lead and Lead alloys, unwrought

238,888 9,274,052 18,479,827 6,209,249 4,838,942

2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000 18,000,000 20,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India Zinc Exports to UAE (USD)

Note: This refers to Zinc and alloys, unwrought

32,123,406 41,741,749 4,069,645 31,345,041 41,801,730

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 40,000,000 45,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

31

India Exports to UAE (Cont’d)

India Soya Beans Exports to UAE(USD) India Rice Exports to UAE (USD)

Note: This refers to whole rice and rice components Note: This refers to Soya Beans

242,515 481,840 611,417 245,704 683,931

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

643,080,920 794,109,262 463,366,369 354,669,360 413,337,164

100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000 700,000,000 800,000,000 900,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

32

India Exports to UAE (Cont’d)

India Sugar Exports to UAE(USD) India Fertiliser Exports to UAE (USD)

Note: This refers to Nitrogenous Fertiliser Note: This refers to Sugars ( beet or cane, raw in solid form) not containing added fmavouring or colouring matter

11,024,761 56,272,036 166,776,999 19,707,077 28,299,202

20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 160,000,000 180,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

139,524 31,339 207,237 397,643 682,938

100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

33 India Copper Exports to UAE (USD)

Note: This refers to Copper, refjned and unrefjned; copper anodes for electrolytic refjning; copper alloys, unwrought

563,510,340 124,625,695 7,517,603 9,028,383 88,425,385

100,000,000 200,000,000 300,000,000 400,000,000 500,000,000 600,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India Exports to UAE (Cont’d)

34

UAE Exports to India

UAE Fertiliser Exports to India(USD)

Note: This refers to Nitrogenous Fertiliser

12,065,886 13,093,647 15,411,750 21,247,266 13,110,098

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UAE Cofgee Exports to India (USD)

Note: This refers to Cofgee (not roasted) whether or not decafgeinated

6,334,309 9,052,468 7,446,638 5,803,601 6,602,276

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

35

UAE Exports to India (Cont’d)

UAE Copper Exports to India (USD)

Note: This refers to Copper, refjned and unrefjned; copper anodes for electrolytic refjning; copper alloys, unwrought

4,534,037 5,614,843 12,991,310 11,853,301 12,705,726

2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UAE Zinc Exports to India (USD)

Note: This refers to Copper, refjned and unrefjned; copper anodes for electrolytic refjning; copper alloys, unwrought

10,296,911 35,982,861 51,610,537 24,795,768 38,276,525

10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

36

UAE Exports to India (Cont’d)

UAE Lead Exports to India (USD) UAE Crude Petroleum Exports to India (USD)

Note: This refers to Crude Petroleum Note: This refers to Lead and Lead alloys, unwrought

70,299,691 72,781,525 59,492,708 54,342,950 57,706,041

10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

7,276,576,808 10,815,659,747 12,968,658,534 12,053,004,224 11,679,080,968

2,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 6,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 12,000,000,000 14,000,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

37 India top Exports to UAE (USD) UAE top Exports to India (USD)

11,700,000,000 7,200,000,000 1,400,000,000 1,200,000,000 979,100,000

4,000,000,000 8,000,000,000 12,000,000,000

Pearls & Precious Stones Mineral Fuels & Oils Apparel Aircraft & Space Craft Ships & Boats 14,400,000,000 8,600,000,000 660,400,000 606,600,000 588,500,000

5,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 15,000,000,000 20,000,000,000

Mineral Fuels & Oils Pearls & Precious Stones Copper & Copper Articles Ships & Boats Iron & Steel

38

Rabobank Intra-Africa Trade Key Highlights

• South Africa is the main source of exports from Rabobank

Southern Africa to Rabobank Eastern Africa commanding 91.3%

• f total volumes in 2014 followed by Mozambique at 4.4%. Key

exports from Rabobank Southern Africa to Rabobank Eastern Africa are Iron and Steel and Mineral Fuels and Oils which are reported to have accounted for about 18.0% and 12.0% of total exports in 2014. Tanzania and Kenya are the largest destinations

• f exports from Southern Africa accounting for 39.0% and

40.0% of total exports, respectively, in 2014. Tanzania being a member to both the Eastern African Community and Southern African Development Community would be a strategic area of focus in harnessing the commodities trade potential between the two blocks

• Kenya is the main source of exports from Rabobank Eastern

Africa to Rabobank Southern Africa having accounted for 78.3% of total volume in 2014. Key exports are agriculture based including Cofgee, Tea, Spices and horticultural products such as cut fmowers. Zambia is the largest destination of exports from Eastern Africa accounting for 82.0% of total volumes in 2014.

Rabobank East Africa Exports to Rabobank Southern Africa 2014:

USD 959,119,700.0

Rabobank East Africa Rabobank Southern Africa Rabobank Southern Africa Exports to Rabobank East Africa 2014:

USD 2,176,596,100.0

Sources: Ministry of Economy and Trade UAE, Ministry of Commerce and Trade India, UN Comtrade, StratLink Africa

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Foreign Exchange: Subdued Commodity Prices to keep Currencies Weak

Sources: World Bank 2015, StratLink Africa

It has been a challenging year for Sub-Saharan African currencies given the slump in commodity prices and the pricing in of an anticipated rate hike by the USA Federal Reserve that has led to an outfmow of the greenback from the region. Governments such as that of Nigeria have been aggressive in placing import controls in a bid to prop beleaguered currencies while majority have adopted monetary tightening. Commodity prices are projected to remain depressed through 2017 and we anticipate currencies will, by and large, exhibit weakness in the same period.

Copper & Gold Price Forecast Crude Oil & Cofgee Arabica Price Forecast

1,100.0 1,150.0 1,200.0 1,250.0 1,300.0 1,350.0 1,400.0 1,450.0 4,800.0 5,300.0 5,800.0 6,300.0 6,800.0 7,300.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 (f) 2017 (f)

Copper ($/Mt) Gold - RHS ($/toz)

3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 (f) 2017 (f)

Crude Oil ($/bbl) Coffee Arabica - RHS ($/kg

40

Currency Change (Year-to-Date) Change (Year-on-Year) Ethiopia Birr

• 0.8%
• 5.1%

Rwanda Franc

• 0.2%
• 8.2%

Kenya Shilling

• 0.5%
• 11.2%

Uganda Shilling

• 1.3%
• 19.4%

Tanzania Shilling

• 0.3%
• 24.5%

South Africa Rand

• 2.3%
• 35.2%

Angola Kwanza

• 3.8%
• 53.2%

Mozambique Metica

• 2.5%
• 57.6%

Zambia Kwacha

• 3.3%
• 70.3%

Currency Performance against USD

Note: Depreciation reported as at February 11th, 2016

Sources: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa

41

Rabobank Trade & Commodity Finance Offjce Address Delta Corner Tower 17th Floor Waiyaki Way

• P. O. Box 1105 – 00606,

Nairobi, Kenya www.rabobank.com

Rabobank International Kenya Representative Offjce Jan de Laat Manager Director TCF Rabobank Africa | Middle East | India Telephone: +254 202 955 004 Mobile: +254 700 331 196 E-mail: Jan.de.laat@rabobank.com Web: www.rabobank.com

Contact details

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