U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Lahontan Basin Area Office Carson City, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
u s bureau of reclamation lahontan basin area office
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Lahontan Basin Area Office Carson City, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jun 06, 2023 322 likes •728 views

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Lahontan Basin Area Office Carson City, NV Water Supply Outlook January 19, 2016 Presented by: Nadira Kabir, Ph.D., P.E. Outline Current Conditions NRCS/RFC Forecasted Data Model for Forecasting Basin

slide-1
SLIDE 1

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Lahontan Basin Area Office

Carson City, NV

Water Supply Outlook

January 19, 2016

Presented by: Nadira Kabir, Ph.D., P.E.

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Outline

  • Current Conditions
  • NRCS/RFC Forecasted Data
  • Model for Forecasting Basin Outlook
  • 2016 Preliminary Outlook

1/19/2016 2

slide-3
SLIDE 3

MARTIS Nixon Fernley Derby Dam WINNEMUCCA LAKE (dry) STAMPEDE TRUCKEE RIVER CARSON LAKE CARSON RIVER LAKE TAHOE DONNER Pyramid Lake Indian Reservation Stillwater NWR LAHONTAN BOCA INDEPENDENCE PROSSER Reno/Sparks Newlands Project Carson City Fallon Fallon Indian Reservation PYRAMID LAKE Tahoe City WALKER RIVER WALKER LAKE Walker River Indian Reservation Yerington TOPAZ LAKE Schurz MARBLE BLUFF TRUCKEE CANAL

HUMBOLDT LAKE TOULON LAKE RYE PATCH RESERVOIR HUMBOLDT RIVER PYRAMID LAKE Humboldt Wildlife Management Area

LOWER HUMBOLDT REGION

1/19/2016 3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Water Year 2015 Precipitation % of Normal

10/1/2014 – 3/17/2015

1/19/2016 4

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Current WY Precipitation To Date

1/19/2016 5

slide-6
SLIDE 6

1/19/2016 6

Current Snowpack

slide-7
SLIDE 7

1/19/2016 7

Lake Tahoe Snowpack Per Year

slide-8
SLIDE 8

1/19/2016 8

Great Basin Snowpack

January 2015 January 2016

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Historical & Forecasted Apr-Jul Runoff by Basin

1/19/2016 9

slide-10
SLIDE 10

Historical & Forecasted A-J Runoff - Truckee

1/19/2016 10

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Historical & Forecasted A-J Runoff - Carson

1/19/2016 11

slide-12
SLIDE 12

1/19/2016 12

slide-13
SLIDE 13

RiverWare Modeling for Water Management

Truckee Carson River Model Development:

1.Ops Model: Day-to-day Operation 2.Planning Model – Long-term Reliability/Evaluation

– Joint effort between Reclamation and TROA Implementation Office (Water Master’s Office) – for the Operations Model – Stakeholders Input

Model Includes:

  • Supply (Inflows)
  • Demand (water rights, etc.)
  • Operating Criteria

– Pre-TROA: Based on 1935 Truckee River Agreement (TRA) – Current: Truckee River Operating Agreement (TROA)

13

1/19/2016

slide-14
SLIDE 14

Operation Criteria

  • General Electric Decree (1915)
  • Truckee River Agreement (1935)
  • Orr Ditch Decree (1944)
  • Donner Lake Agreement (1943)
  • Tahoe-Prosser Exchange (1959)
  • Interim Storage Agreement (1994)
  • Adjusted OCAP – Operating Criteria and Procedure

(1997)

14 1/19/2016

slide-15
SLIDE 15

Truckee River Operating Agreement: TROA

  • New Operating Policy: TROA

– Negotiated pursuant to PL 101-618 (1990) – Partially implemented on December 1, 2015 – Full implementation – coming soon

  • TROA Builds on current Truckee River

Agreement policy

– Adds operational flexibility

  • Users may hold back their water as “credit water”
  • Allows for system of exchanges between reservoirs

15 1/19/2016

slide-16
SLIDE 16

Prosser Reservoir

Reservoir Characteristics

  • Storage capacity
  • Max Min Pools
  • Outlet works
  • Spillway capacity
  • Storage Priority
  • Flood Control Operations
  • Evaporation
  • Precipitation
  • Power

1/19/2016 16

slide-17
SLIDE 17

Operations Model (15 months) Operations Model (15 months) Planning Model (100 year)

RiverWare Model Development

Pre-TROA TROA

Planning Model (100 year)

1/19/2016 17

slide-18
SLIDE 18

Ops Model for Water Management

Operation – Day-to-day Operations and Look Ahead

– Short-term Model – 15 months hydrology – Operational forecasts for stakeholders since 2004 – Inflow – Current Gage and Forecasted

Model Use:

– Water Master – Daily operations and TROA Scheduling Committee – Reclamation - Truckee Canal Diversion operations & Lahontan Flood operations

1/19/2016 18

slide-19
SLIDE 19

RiverWare Framework

  • Node-based river system operations model
  • Physical characteristics
  • Uses rule-based simulation - policy is coded in the

rule set

1/19/2016 19

slide-20
SLIDE 20

RiverWare Operations Model - Forecasted Inflow Methodology

  • NRCS/RFC April-July runoff volume

forecasts for 3 basins:

  • Tahoe, Truckee, and Carson.
  • Forecasts are given as probability of

exceedance:

  • 10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%
  • Obtain inflow hydrograph patterns -

volumes are matched to historically similar years

  • Disaggregate hydrographs to several

basin locations

  • Model is run for each exceedance value

Lake Tahoe Gage

1/19/2016 20

slide-21
SLIDE 21

LBAO Forecasting

What forecasts we produce and why

  • OCAP Forecasts

Truckee Canal Operations

– Lahontan Monthly Target Storages

  • Ft. Churchill Apr-Jul Volume
  • Carson Division Annual Demand

– Truckee Canal Monthly Diversions

  • Truckee and Carson Division Monthly Demand
  • Truckee Canal Monthly Losses
  • Lahontan Reservoir Monthly Losses

21 1/19/2016

slide-22
SLIDE 22
  • Forecasts Truckee Basin Operations

– Reservoir Filling/Flood Control Operations – Reservoir Operations to meet Floriston Rates – Tahoe-Prosser Exchange – Truckee Meadows Diversions and Demands – Fish and Wildlife Service Fish Releases – Truckee Canal Operations – Pyramid Lake Elevations

  • TROA Operational Forecasting Using

RiverWare – TROA Administrator

– Parties to submit a schedule - coordination process

1/19/2016 22

LBAO Forecasting

What forecasts we produce and why

slide-23
SLIDE 23

WY 2016 January 14 Forecast - Hydrograph

1/19/2016 23

Farad AJ Vol (KAF) Carson AJ Vol (KAF) Tahoe Gate Closed Rise (ft) 20% (W) 346 263 2.2 50% (M) 245 175 1.1 80% (D) 128 94 0.4

slide-24
SLIDE 24

Average & Forecasted Farad Flow

1/19/2016 24

slide-25
SLIDE 25

Observed and Forecasted Reservoir Storage

1/19/2016 25

slide-26
SLIDE 26

WY 2016 Storage Preliminary Projection - Tahoe

1/19/2016 26

slide-27
SLIDE 27

WY 2016 Storage Preliminary Projection - Stampede

1/19/2016 27

slide-28
SLIDE 28

WY 2016 Storage Preliminary Projection - Lahontan

1/19/2016 28

slide-29
SLIDE 29

End!

Comments? Questions?

slide-30
SLIDE 30

Truckee River Agreement-1935

The TRA is the basis for pre-TROA operation of Lake Tahoe, Boca Reservoir, and the Truckee River. A slightly modified version of the original Floriston Rates Agreement was subsequently incorporated into the Truckee River Agreement. This included Reduced Floriston Rates.

Lake Tahoe Elevations Oct. Nov.-Feb. March Apr.-Sept.

Less than 6225.25 feet 400 300 300 500 6225.25 to 6226.00 feet 400 350 350 500 Over 6226.00 feet 400 400 500 500 Parties to the TRA include: TCID, SPPC (TMWA), and WCWCD

1/19/2016 30

slide-31
SLIDE 31

WY 2015 Projection – Lake Tahoe Release

1/19/2016 31 3 7 10 13 16 20 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Mean Monthly Relaese (CFS) Release (kAF)

Lake Tahoe--Release

30% Outflow 50% Outflow 70% Outflow

Combined Forecast

3/17/2015

slide-32
SLIDE 32

WY 2015 Projection – Farad Gage Flow

1/19/2016 32 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Mean Monthly Flow (cfs)

Truckee River at Farad--Gage Flow

30% Flow 50% Flow 70% Flow Floriston Rate_50% "Floriston Rates_70% "Floriston Rates_30%

Combined Forecast 3/17/2015

slide-33
SLIDE 33

WY 2015 Projection – Nixon Gage Flow

1/19/2016 33 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Mean Monthly Flow (cfs)

Truckee River at Nixon--Gage Flow

30% Flow 50% Flow 70% Flow

Combined Forecast

3/17/2015

slide-34
SLIDE 34

WY 2012-present Nixon Gage Flow

1/19/2016 34

slide-35
SLIDE 35

WY 2015 Project – Prosser Storage

1/19/2016 35 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Storage (kAF)

Prosser Reservoir--Storage

30% Storage 50% Storage 70% Storage

Combined Forecast

3/17/2015

slide-36
SLIDE 36

Truckee River Basin Reservoirs

Reservoir Construction Date Use Storage Volume (AF)

Lake Tahoe 1874 / 1913 Floriston Rates 744,600 Independence Pre 1900 / 1939 POSW 3,000 / 17,500 Donner 1928 POSW 9,500 Boca 1938 Rates / FC / CS 40,870 Prosser 1963 TPX / Fish / FC 29,840 Stampede 1969 Fish / FC / CS 226,500 Martis 1971 Flood Control 20,400

1/19/2016 36

slide-37
SLIDE 37

Lake Tahoe Facts

Maximum Elevation: 6229.10 feet Elevation of Natural Rim: 6223.00 feet Vertical Storage: 6.10 feet Storage Capacity: 744,600 acre feet Total Capacity: 122,160,000 acre feet Historical Max. Elevation: 6231.26 feet (July 1907) Historical Min. Elevation: 6220.26 feet (Nov. 1992)

1/19/2016 37

slide-38
SLIDE 38

Average Annual Precipitation (Tahoe City): 32.33 inches Average Annual Evaporation: +/- 3.8 feet (460,000 AF) “Normal Year” Release: +/- 9.5 inches (95,000 AF)

Tahoe’s annual surface evaporation is enough water to meet the Reno- Sparks area surface water demands for over five years! Surface Area: 85,000 acres in CA + 37,000 acres in NV = 122,000 acres

Lake Tahoe Facts

1/19/2016 38

slide-39
SLIDE 39

RiverWare Development Process

  • Began in 2000

– Joint effort between Reclamation and TROA Implementation Office (Water Master’s Office)

  • 2009: Shift in Responsibility

– TROA Implementation Office in lead role for Ops model – Reclamation support Ops model; lead planning modeling

  • 2010: Planning Model Development, Water

Quality Modeling

1/19/2016 39