TYL YLER IS ISD AUG UGUS UST 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TYL YLER IS ISD AUG UGUS UST 2019

Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO WE WHO WE ARE ARE Lar arge D Demog ographic F Fir irm L Loc ocat ated in in Colle ollege S Stat ation on, TX ► 39+ Y Year ar His Histor ory ► Clie lients ar are alm almos ost Ex Exclusively S School D ool Dis istricts ► Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined De Demograph phic E Expe perience ►

Econom omic D c Data Housin ing P Proje jectio ions ns • Employment Projections • Recent Employment Trends for District • Ten-Year Projections for Single-Family and Multi- Family Developments • Projections for Vacant Parcels Current nt S Stude dents ts WHAT WHA T WE WE DO DO • Geocode population • Count by grade and/or special population Mappin pping • Aerial Imagery • Existing and Future Residential Development Lon ong R g Ran ange e Plan anning • Factors Affecting or Limiting Development • Attendance Zone Projections • Site Selection Long Range Facilities Plan •

Annual Population Change Smith County 5,000 4,470 4,500 4,000 3,170 2,761 3,076 3,500 POPULATION CHANGE 2,172 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YEAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Total School District Enrollment Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Numeric Change in Enrollment Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Percent Change in Enrollment Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Numeric Change in Enrollment Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Percent Change in Enrollment Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Percent Economically Disadvantaged Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region Source: Texas Education Agency

2017 2017 Demogr graphi hic c Updat Update

-300 -200 -10 Total Student Gain or Loss 300 200 100 10 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 0 199 1991-92 92 1992 1992-93 93 1993-94 1993 94 1994 1994-95 95 1995 1995-96 96 1996 1996-97 97 199 1997-98 98 1998 1998-99 99 1999 1999-00 00 2000 2000-01 01 200 2001-02 02 2002-03 2002 03 2003 2003-04 04 2004 2004-05 05 2005 2005-06 06 2006 2006-07 07 200 2007-08 08 2008 2008-09 09 2009 2009-10 10 201 010-11 11 20 2011 11-12 12 201 012-13 13 201 013-14 14 201 014-15 15 20 2015 15-16 16 201 016-17 17 2017 17-18 18 201 018-19 19

Demographic Characteristics 35.7 Population Median Age 18% Ages 5–17 State of Texas 34.7 State of Texas 19% Mean Travel $51,426 Median 21.1 Time to Work Household State of Texas $59,206 Income State of Texas 26.5 minutes 66.9% Bachelor’s Degree STAAR Passage Rate 25% State of Texas 73.1% State of Texas 30% 75.0% Economically Disadvantaged Student Population State of Texas 60.6% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimate; Texas Education Agency

Kindergarten vs. Births Bi Birth ths ( (Adj Adjusted ted F Five Yea e Years) Kinderga garten E Enrol ollme ment 2, 2,200 00 2, 2,000 00 1,800 1, 00 STUDENTS 1, 1,600 00 1,400 1, 00 1,200 1, 00 1,000 1, 00 SCHOOL YEAR Sources: Texas Department of State Health Services; Texas Education Agency

PK-12 Enrollment Share Tyler I.S.D. Residents R Resident S Students: 21,885 Attending T.I.S.D. 18,130 Transfers into the District 214 Attending and Residing in T.I.S.D. 17,916 (81.9%) Attending Charter Schools 1 2,029 (9.3%) Attending Private Schools 2 1,491 (6.8%) Attending Nearby Districts 1 449 (2.1%) 1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Transfer Reports 2018-19 2 Source: PASA interviews

CHARTER SCHOOLS

Projected Katy I.S.D. Students Demographics 2017 20 7 Students Demogr graphi hi Employ- per c Updat Update ment Home Housing

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Tyler Metro, Seasonally Adjusted Six-Month Change in Employment Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Employment Change (Non-Farm) Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 MONTH Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Source: Texas Workforce Commission Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

Employment by Sector District Residents in the Workforce, 2017 Estimate Public Resource Other Construction Admin. Collection Services 8% 3% 2% 6% Entertainment & Manufacturing Food Service 8% 11% Wholesale Trade 2% Education & Retail Trade Healthcare 15% 26% Resource Distribution 4% Information Finance & Professional & 3% Real Estate Administrative 4% 8% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

 May May 201 019 Un Unem emplo loyment of f 2.8% i % in T Tyler yler  Distri tributi bution on and F d Food d Proce ocessin ing GG D Distrib ibut ution n – 180 jo 180 jobs  John John S Sou oules F s Food oods e s expa xpansi sion  Sande nderson F n Farms  Re Recently o opened an d and h d hav ave 1, 1,000 000 workers  500 addi 500 additional jo jobs e expected b d by l lat ate 2019 2019  Most Most work workers li rs live ve i in T Tyler 

 Medica cal and nd Health thcare care La Larg rgest st e empl mployers i rs in S Smi mith C h Cou ounty  UT H T Health E East TX TX – 4, 4,439 439  CHRIST STUS T S Trinit nity M Mother F Franc nces - 4, 4,095 095  Fre rese senius Me s Medical C Care re ope opened i in 2 2018  nearl rly 3 300 empl mploy oyees wi s with pla h plans for for  expandin anding a and a addin ing 2 200 more posit itio ions ns Ce Centene Co Corp.  50, 50,000 000-sq. f ft. f facility (o (opened 2013) d 2013)  Site proc process sses Me s Medicaid/Me Medicare re c cla laims s  and se serve rves 1 s 19 st states; s; e expa xpansi sion e expe xpected

Housing Projections Methodology ► Analysis by Planning Unit

Housing Projections Methodology ► New Housing Plans by City ► Special Districts (Utilties)

Housing Projections Methodology ► Land Ownership Changes ► (2016 to Present) ► Land for Sale (May 2019)

 Rose City ity Muni nici cipal pal Utility ity Distri trict ct Approved by Texas Legislature in 2019  Overlay district in south T.I.S.D.  Bonds would be issued to provide utilities  Competition with current private utility provider  Development likely to increase   Coun unty ty R Road 1 168 8 Rehabil abilita itati tion on  Tol Toll 49 9 Exte tension east t of of T.I. T.I.S.D.

► Old ld Jac Jackso sonville ( lle (FM M 2493) C Corr rridor Oak Creek: 36 now occupied; near build out by 2023 ► Oak Springs: recently planned for ~200 lots on ~100 ► acres just south of The Crossing Genecov/W. Cumberland Tract: both owners recently ► received zoning approval for SF/THs; 440-ac. tract; ► Lindsey sey Cro rossi sing: 15 150 lo lots s total l alo along g Gree reenbr briar ► Cumberland P Park We West: t: mixed us use (86 a 6 acr cres) app pprov oved by Cit ity of of Ty Tyler; ; MF expe pected long ong-te term rm ► Nor orth th T.I. T.I.S.D: sca cattered large-lot d ot developm pment

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2019–2023 SHORT-TERM Lindsey Crossing Cascades The Crossing Oak Creek Genecov/West Cumberland (440 ac.) Cumberland Gap Whitetail Hollow

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2019–2028 10-YEAR Northchase “Bellwood Tract” Lindsey Crossing Oak Springs Genecov/West Cumberland (440 ac.) Rose City MUD vicinity

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2019–2028 10-YEAR Lower/Later Impact Auberge of Tyler Greater/Sooner Impact Cumberland Park West Mixed Use

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2019–2028 Sin S ingle-Famil ily H Housin ing 4,940 40 3,000 M Multi- i-Famil ily H Housin ing 2,613 13 M Mixed ed U Use e 813 2,903 2,037 S Senio ior 364 2,500 Manufacture M red 218 T Tot otal 8,948 8, 948 2,000 1,824 1,500 789 660 1,000 298 153 157 500 66 61 0 Single-Family Multi-Family Mixed Use Senior Manufactured 2019-2023 2023-2028

Students per Occupied Home Districtwide

Projected Katy I.S.D . Students Demographics 2017 2017 Dem Demograph raphic Students Employ- per ment Updat Update Home Housing