TYL YLER IS ISD AUG UGUS UST 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TYL YLER IS ISD AUG UGUS UST 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TYL YLER IS ISD AUG UGUS UST 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO WE WHO WE ARE ARE Lar arge D Demog ographic F Fir irm L Loc ocat ated in

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SLIDE 1

TYL YLER IS ISD

AUG UGUS UST 2019

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SLIDE 2

►

Lar arge D Demog

  • graphic F

Fir irm L Loc

  • cat

ated in in Colle

  • llege S

Stat ation

  • n, TX

►

39+ Y Year ar His Histor

  • ry

►

Clie lients ar are alm almos

  • st Ex

Exclusively S School D

  • ol Dis

istricts

►

Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined De Demograph phic E Expe perience

WHO WHO WE WE ARE ARE

Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. President Kris Pool Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst

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SLIDE 3

Econom

  • mic D

c Data

  • Employment Projections
  • Recent Employment Trends for

District

Current nt S Stude dents ts

  • Geocode population
  • Count by grade and/or special

population

Lon

  • ng R

g Ran ange e Plan anning

  • Attendance Zone Projections
  • Site Selection
  • Long Range Facilities Plan

WHA WHAT T WE WE DO DO

Housin ing P Proje jectio ions ns

  • Ten-Year Projections for

Single-Family and Multi- Family Developments

  • Projections for Vacant

Parcels

Mappin pping

  • Aerial Imagery
  • Existing and Future

Residential Development

  • Factors Affecting or

Limiting Development

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SLIDE 4

Annual Population Change

Smith County

3,076 4,470 3,170 2,172 2,761

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

POPULATION CHANGE YEAR

Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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SLIDE 5

Total School District Enrollment

Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 6

Numeric Change in Enrollment

Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 7

Percent Change in Enrollment

Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 8

Numeric Change in Enrollment

Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 9

Percent Change in Enrollment

Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

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SLIDE 10

Percent Economically Disadvantaged

Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region

Source: Texas Education Agency

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SLIDE 11

2017 2017 Demogr graphi hic c Updat Update

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SLIDE 12

Total Student Gain or Loss

  • 300

300

  • 200

200

  • 10

100 10 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 199 1991-92 92 1992 1992-93 93 1993 1993-94 94 1994 1994-95 95 1995 1995-96 96 1996 1996-97 97 199 1997-98 98 1998 1998-99 99 1999 1999-00 00 2000 2000-01 01 200 2001-02 02 2002 2002-03 03 2003 2003-04 04 2004 2004-05 05 2005 2005-06 06 2006 2006-07 07 200 2007-08 08 2008 2008-09 09 2009 2009-10 10 201 010-11 11 20 2011 11-12 12 201 012-13 13 201 013-14 14 201 014-15 15 20 2015 15-16 16 201 016-17 17 2017 17-18 18 201 018-19 19

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SLIDE 13

35.7

Median Age

State of Texas 34.7

75.0%

Economically Disadvantaged Student Population

State of Texas 60.6%

Median Household Income

$51,426

State of Texas $59,206

18%

Population Ages 5–17

State of Texas 19%

21.1

Mean Travel Time to Work

State of Texas 26.5 minutes

STAAR Passage Rate

State of Texas 73.1%

66.9% 25%

State of Texas 30%

Demographic Characteristics

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimate; Texas Education Agency

Bachelor’s Degree

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SLIDE 14

Kindergarten vs. Births

Sources: Texas Department of State Health Services; Texas Education Agency

1, 1,000 00 1, 1,200 00 1, 1,400 00 1, 1,600 00 1, 1,800 00 2, 2,000 00 2, 2,200 00

STUDENTS SCHOOL YEAR

Bi Birth ths ( (Adj Adjusted ted F Five Yea e Years) Kinderga garten E Enrol

  • llme

ment

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SLIDE 15

PK-12 Enrollment Share

Tyler I.S.D. Residents

R Resident S Students: 21,885 Attending T.I.S.D. 18,130 Transfers into the District 214 Attending and Residing in T.I.S.D. 17,916

(81.9%)

Attending Charter Schools1 2,029

(9.3%)

Attending Private Schools2 1,491

(6.8%)

Attending Nearby Districts1 449

(2.1%)

2 Source: PASA interviews 1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Transfer Reports 2018-19

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SLIDE 16

CHARTER SCHOOLS

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SLIDE 17

20 2017 7 Demogr graphi hi c Updat Update

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment Housing Students per Home Projected Students

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SLIDE 18

Six-Month Change in Employment

Tyler Metro, Seasonally Adjusted

  • 2.0%
  • 1.5%
  • 1.0%
  • 0.5%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE MONTH

Employment Change (Non-Farm)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

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SLIDE 19

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Employment by Sector

District Residents in the Workforce, 2017 Estimate

Resource Collection 2% Construction 8% Manufacturing 8% Wholesale Trade 2% Retail Trade 15% Resource Distribution 4% Information 3% Finance & Real Estate 4% Professional & Administrative 8% Education & Healthcare 26% Entertainment & Food Service 11% Other Services 6% Public Admin. 3%

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SLIDE 20
  • May

May 201 019 Un Unem emplo loyment of f 2.8% i % in T Tyler yler

  • Distri

tributi bution

  • n and F

d Food d Proce

  • cessin

ing

  • GG D

Distrib ibut ution n – 180 jo 180 jobs

  • John

John S Sou

  • ules F

s Food

  • ods e

s expa xpansi sion

  • Sande

nderson F n Farms

  • Re

Recently o

  • pened an

d and h d hav ave 1, 1,000 000 workers

  • 500

500 addi additional jo jobs e expected b d by l lat ate 2019 2019

  • Most

Most work workers li rs live ve i in T Tyler

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SLIDE 21
  • Medica

cal and nd Health thcare care

  • La

Larg rgest st e empl mployers i rs in S Smi mith C h Cou

  • unty
  • UT H

T Health E East TX TX – 4, 4,439 439

  • CHRIST

STUS T S Trinit nity M Mother F Franc nces - 4, 4,095 095

  • Fre

rese senius Me s Medical C Care re ope

  • pened i

in 2 2018

  • nearl

rly 3 300 empl mploy

  • yees wi

s with pla h plans for for expandin anding a and a addin ing 2 200 more posit itio ions ns

  • Ce

Centene Co Corp.

  • 50,

50,000 000-sq. f

  • ft. f

facility (o (opened 2013) d 2013)

  • Site proc

process sses Me s Medicaid/Me Medicare re c cla laims s and se serve rves 1 s 19 st states; s; e expa xpansi sion e expe xpected

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SLIDE 22
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SLIDE 23

Housing Projections Methodology

► Analysis by Planning Unit

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SLIDE 24

► New Housing Plans by City ► Special Districts (Utilties)

Housing Projections Methodology

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SLIDE 25

► Land Ownership Changes ► (2016 to Present) ► Land for Sale (May 2019)

Housing Projections Methodology

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SLIDE 26
  • Rose City

ity Muni nici cipal pal Utility ity Distri trict ct

  • Approved by Texas Legislature in 2019
  • Overlay district in south T.I.S.D.
  • Bonds would be issued to provide utilities
  • Competition with current private utility provider
  • Development likely to increase
  • Coun

unty ty R Road 1 168 8 Rehabil abilita itati tion

  • n
  • Tol

Toll 49 9 Exte tension east t of

  • f T.I.

T.I.S.D.

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SLIDE 27

► Old

ld Jac Jackso sonville ( lle (FM M 2493) C Corr rridor

►

Oak Creek: 36 now occupied; near build out by 2023

►

Oak Springs: recently planned for ~200 lots on ~100 acres just south of The Crossing

►

Genecov/W. Cumberland Tract: both owners recently received zoning approval for SF/THs; 440-ac. tract;

► Lindsey

sey Cro rossi sing: 15 150 lo lots s total l alo along g Gree reenbr briar

► Cumberland P

Park We West: t: mixed us use (86 a 6 acr cres) app pprov

  • ved by Cit

ity of

  • f Ty

Tyler; ; MF expe pected long

  • ng-te

term rm

► Nor

  • rth

th T.I. T.I.S.D: sca cattered large-lot d

  • t developm

pment

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SLIDE 28

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2023 SHORT-TERM

Lindsey Crossing Cascades Oak Creek Cumberland Gap Genecov/West Cumberland (440 ac.) Whitetail Hollow The Crossing

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SLIDE 29

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028 10-YEAR

Lindsey Crossing “Bellwood Tract” Oak Springs Rose City MUD vicinity Genecov/West Cumberland (440 ac.) Northchase

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SLIDE 30

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028 10-YEAR

Lower/Later Impact Greater/Sooner Impact Cumberland Park West Mixed Use Auberge of Tyler

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SLIDE 31

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Single-Family Multi-Family Mixed Use Senior Manufactured

2,037 789 153 298 61 2,903 1,824 660 66 157

2019-2023 2023-2028

4,940 40 2,613 13 813 364 218

8, 8,948 948

M Mixed ed U Use e

T Tot

  • tal

S Sin ingle-Famil ily H Housin ing M Multi- i-Famil ily H Housin ing S Senio ior M Manufacture red

Projected New Housing Occupancies

2019–2028

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SLIDE 32
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SLIDE 33

Students per Occupied Home

Districtwide

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SLIDE 34

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Dem Demograph raphic Updat Update

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SLIDE 35

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Enro rollme ment

18,28 287 18,45 459 18,546 18,596 18,61 619

% G Growt wth 0.87% 0.94% 0.47% 0.27% 0.12% Growt wth 157 172 87 50 23 2024.00 2025.00 2026.00 2027.00 2028.00

Enro rollme ment

18,65 653 18,63 639 18,666 18,764 18,89 890

% G Growt wth 0.18%

  • 0.08%

0.14% 0.53% 0.67% Growt wth 34

  • 14

27 98 126

Moderate Growth Scenario

Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot Date

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SLIDE 36

Three Scenarios of Growth

18, 18,890 890 18, 18,130 130 18, 18,619 19

18,147 18,723 17,986 19,195 17,500 17,750 18,000 18,250 18,500 18,750 19,000 19,250 19,500

2016 2018 2023 2028 Enrollment Year

Low/High Range Actual Projected

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SLIDE 37

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Dem Demograph raphic Updat Update

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SLIDE 38

Projected Elementary Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Cumberland Park West Mixed Use Auberge of Tyler Lindsey Crossing Cascades Oak Creek Whitetail Hollow The Crossing “Bellwood Tract” Oak Springs Northchase Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 39

Projected Elementary Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 40

Projected Elementary Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 41

Percent Utilization 2018-19

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 42

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 43

Curre rrent 2019- 2019-20 20 2020- 2020-21 21 2021- 2021-22 22 2022- 2022-23 23 2023- 2023-24 24 2024- 2024-25 25 2025- 2025-26 26 2026- 2026-27 27 2027- 2027-28 28 2028- 2028-29 29

Austin 397 397 391 391 392 392 403 403 399 399 406 406 401 401 394 394 387 387 382 382 376 376 Bell ll 382 382 379 379 373 373 348 348 348 348 331 331 332 332 328 328 323 323 323 323 319 319 Bir irdwell ll 357 357 345 345 334 334 321 321 312 312 302 302 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 303 Bonner 467 467 481 481 487 487 491 491 499 499 494 494 493 493 489 489 486 486 482 482 477 477 Clarkston 482 482 493 493 513 513 517 517 502 502 513 513 505 505 501 501 498 498 495 495 489 489 Dix ixie ie 668 668 690 690 733 733 755 755 777 777 799 799 805 805 807 807 809 809 813 813 817 817 Doug uglas 589 589 623 623 625 625 641 641 643 643 648 648 644 644 638 638 632 632 628 628 621 621 Grif iffin in 760 760 802 802 823 823 816 816 815 815 818 818 824 824 827 827 831 831 839 839 839 839 Jack 711 711 724 724 733 733 764 764 778 778 812 812 846 846 874 874 906 906 946 946 988 988 Jones 394 394 390 390 403 403 410 410 427 427 455 455 466 466 477 477 492 492 512 512 530 530 Orr rr 837 837 845 845 868 868 880 880 873 873 857 857 865 865 868 868 871 871 877 877 879 879 Owens 726 726 716 716 720 720 713 713 715 715 721 721 719 719 719 719 720 720 723 723 729 729 Peet eete 459 459 478 478 494 494 504 504 493 493 495 495 493 493 492 492 490 490 491 491 489 489 Ramey 640 640 654 654 667 667 647 647 652 652 675 675 681 681 686 686 686 686 689 689 687 687 Ric ice 676 676 660 660 644 644 631 631 628 628 655 655 658 658 662 662 666 666 672 672 676 676 Woods 646 646 671 671 697 697 726 726 778 778 801 801 796 796 794 794 792 792 793 793 790 790

> 9 90% 0% c capa pacity > 1 100 00% c capa pacity > 1 110 10% c capa pacity

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SLIDE 44

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Proposed Long-Range Plan:

Build New Elementary in West

**Planning Document Only: Board of Trustees has made no decisions regarding new schools, sites, or attendance zones.

Elementary Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 45

Projected Middle School Student Growth

2018-19 to 2028-29

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 46

Percent Utilization 2018-19

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 47

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 48

Curre rrent 2019- 2019-20 20 2020- 2020-21 21 2021- 2021-22 22 2022- 2022-23 23 2023- 2023-24 24 2024- 2024-25 25 2025- 2025-26 26 2026- 2026-27 27 2027- 2027-28 28 2028- 2028-29 29

Boulte ter

1,037 37 1,022 22 1,009 09 965 927 935 938 958 978 974 978

Ho Hogg

437 477 516 486 445 438 425 420 408 410 409

Hubbard

786 794 805 785 775 706 722 740 803 800 796

Moore

921 898 839 835 839 835 827 835 832 820 819

Three L ee Lakes es

935 916 924 914 913 881 901 910 965 982 1,008 08 > 9 90% 0% c capa pacity > 1 100 00% c capa pacity > 1 110 10% c capa pacity

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SLIDE 49

Percent Utilization 2028-29

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

Proposed Long-Range Plan:

Build New MS in West and Repurpose Hogg

**Planning Document Only: Board of Trustees has made no decisions regarding new schools, sites, or attendance zones.

Middle School Long-Range Planning

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SLIDE 50

High School Long-Range Planning

Percent Utilization 2018 – 2029

RESIDENT Students vs Capacity

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SLIDE 51

► New Eleme

mentary on

  • n We

West Sid t Side

► New Midd

iddle Sch School

  • l on
  • n We

West t Sid Side

► Repurpo

purpose Hogg MS

► Tim

Timing de depe pendent on

  • n loca
  • cal tol

tolerance of

  • f
  • v
  • vercrow
  • wding, pr

prog

  • grammatic de

decisions, etc. tc.

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SLIDE 52

Katy I.S.D.

Demographics

Employ- ment

Housing Students per Home Projected Students

2017 2017 Dem Demograph raphic Updat Update

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SLIDE 53

TYL YLER IS ISD

AUG UGUS UST 2019