Tropical Cyclone Forecast Exercise Using Web-ATCF Or Slides - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Exercise Using Web-ATCF Or Slides - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 13, 2023 37 likes •330 views

Tropical Cyclone Forecast Exercise Using Web-ATCF Or Slides (alternate) 13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 1 Exercise Overview and Objectives Using web-ATCF, determine current best- track position and intensity Review

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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Exercise

Using Web-ATCF Or Slides (alternate)

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 1

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Exercise Overview and Objectives

  • Using web-ATCF, determine current best-

track position and intensity

– Review previous position and intensity – Review previous forecast

  • Make track and intensity forecast

– Consider current structure and intensity – Consider latest numerical and statistical- dynamical forecast aids – Consider last forecast – Consider any TC structure, location or intensity issues not covered or addressed by last forecast.

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 2

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13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 3

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Review Current “Conditions”

  • Current water vapor loop
  • Current numerical model fields

– NAVGEM – GFS

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 4

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13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 5

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13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 6

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13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 7

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261732Z MTSAT IRBD

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 8

X

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261544Z OSCAT

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 9

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261544Z OSCAT Ambiguity

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 10

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261544Z OSCAT Ambiguity Zoomed

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 11

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JTWC TDO Log

26/18Z: FIRST WARNING

  • A. 15.0N 117.0E 25 kts. PBO EIR loop and
  • ascat. IBO T1.5 fix from PGTW, KNES, and
  • KJTD. ADL/TQP
  • B. 15.8N 117.4E 25 kts. PBO 1849Z 2km
  • VIS. IBO 1.5 from all agencies and 1544Z
  • OSCAT. TJM

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 12

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JTWC TDO Log

26/18Z: FIRST WARNING

  • A. 15.0N 117.0E 25 kts. PBO EIR loop and
  • ascat. IBO T1.5 fix from PGTW, KNES, and
  • KJTD. ADL/TQP
  • B. 15.8N 117.4E 25 kts. PBO 1849Z 2km
  • VIS. IBO 1.5 from all agencies and 1544Z
  • OSCAT. TJM

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 13

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261849Z DMSP F15 2km VIS

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 14

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261820Z Noaa19 89H Microwave

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 15

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To-do; Major Items

  • Determine 00Z position and intensity
  • Submit bogus
  • Run aids and view
  • Determine track forecast
  • Determine intensity forecast
  • Produce warning message and graphics

……..Move to web-atcf, if practical…….

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 16

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27/00Z Fixes

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 17

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27/00Z Fixes (zoomed)

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 18

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262140Z DMSP SSMIS 37h

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 19

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262140Z DMSP SSMIS 91H

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 20

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MTSAT 262332Z IR-BD & VIS

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 21

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27/00Z Objective Aids

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 22

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27/00Z Objective Aids (zoomed)

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 23

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27/00Z Objective Aids

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 24

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27/00Z Intensity Aids

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 25

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27/00Z JTWC Warning Graphic

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 26

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TY 20W (WUTIP) Sep 2013

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 27

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TY 20W Intensity Curve & JTWC Intensity Forecasts

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 28

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TY 20W Intensity Curve & S5YY Intensity Forecasts

13 March 2014 JMA/ WMO Forecaster Training 29