Trends John Curtice Strathclyde University and NatCen Social - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Public Concerns and Political Trends

John Curtice Strathclyde University and NatCen Social Research The UK in a Changing Europe

Three Concerns

• Brexit
• Economic Management/Public Services
• English Devolution

Nation of Brexit Identifiers

44 42 40 33 33 34 12 12 14 11 9 12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Panel June 18 Panel Nov 19 BSA 18 Very Strong Fairly Strong Not Very Strong No ID Source: NatCen Social Research

Remain vs Leave Support

The Popularity of Extremes

24 12 15 33 22 10 13 36 23 9 13 33 24 6 14 32 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Leave w/o deal Leave with May's deal Leave but stay in Single Market/Customs Union Revoke Article 50 April May August Sept Source: Kantar

Poles Apart

7 9 11 67 51 14 17 6 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Leave w/o deal Leave with May's deal Leave but stay in Single Market/Customs Union Revoke Article 50 Remain Leave Source: Kantar, average of April, May, August and September 2019

EU Ref: Not a Left vs Right Divide

48 52 52 48 55 45 10 20 30 40 50 60 Remain Leave

EU Referendum Vote

Left Centre Right Source: British Social Attitudes 2016

But A Clear Division Between Social Liberals and Conservatives

79 21 47 53 28 72 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Remain Leave

EU Referendum Vote

Liberal Mixed Conservative Source: British Social Attitudes 2016

The Result

% Votes (GB) Change since 2017 Seats (UK) Change since 2017 Conservative 44.7 +1.2 365 +49 Brexit 2.1 (+0.2)

• Labour

33.0

• 8.0

203

• 59

Liberal Democrats 11.8 +4.2 11

• 1

SNP 4.0 +0.9 48 +13 Greens 2.8 +1.1 1 n/c PC 0.4

• 0.1

4 +1 Others 1.1 +0.4 18 n/c

Highest Tory vote since 1979 and biggest majority since 1987 Lowest Lab seats since 1983 but only lowest vote since 2010

The Brexit Divide

Remain Voters Leave Voters 2019 2017 2019 2017 Conservative 19 25 74 65 Brexit/UKIP 4 4 Labour 49 55 14 24 Liberal Democrats 21 12 3 3 SNP/PC 7 5 2 2 Greens 4 2 2 1

Source: YouGov (41,995) 13-16.12.19; (52,609) 9-13.6.17.

The Long-Term Change

Remain Voters Leave Voters

2019 2015 2019 2015 Conservative 19 30 74 45 Brexit/UKIP 1 4 25 Labour 49 43 14 20 Liberal Democrats 21 11 3 5 SNP/PC 7 7 2 3 Greens 4 7 2 1

Source: YouGov 13-16.12.19; 9-13.6.17.

In The Constituencies

• 2.4

0.1 2.9 6

• 6.3
• 6.5
• 7.9
• 10.6

7.2 5.2 3 2.6

• 12
• 10
• 8
• 6
• 4
• 2

2 4 6 8 10 0-45 45-55 55-60 60+

% Leave 2016

Change in % share vote 2017-19

Con Lab LD Based on seats in England & Wales only

Over The Longer-Term

• 4.2

3.3 9.7 16.1 5.1 4.3 2.4

• 2

8.3 4.8 1.8 1.6

• 5.3
• 11
• 12.9
• 16.6
• 20
• 15
• 10
• 5

5 10 15 20 0-45 45-55 55-60 60+

% Leave 2016

Mean Change in % share vote 2015-19

Con Lab LD Sceptic Based on seats in England & Wales only. Sceptic = Brexit 2017 – UKIP 2015 and is not confined to seats fought.

A Classic Thermostat?

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Taxes and Spending

Reduce Keep as now Increase

Source: British Social Attitudes

Change Largely Across the Board

24 56 56 29 28 42 53 42 73 69 41 46 58 65 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 83 91 02 09 14 16 18

% increase tax and spend

Con identifiers Lab identifiers

Source: British Social Attitudes

Government Redistribute Income

10 20 30 40 50 60 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 % agree

Socialist-Laissez-Faire Scale

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 % left of centre

Source: British Social Attitudes

Attitudes to Nationalisation

45 56 50 29 22 25 10 20 30 40 50 60 Energy Railways Water Support Oppose Source: YouGov 7-8.11.19

A Sharper Divide

30 44 35 50 41 47 63 77 72 18 11 12 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Energy Railways Water Con Support Con Oppose Lab Support Lab Oppose Source: YouGov 7-8.11.19

The English Devolution Debate

• Regional devolution – rejected in NE referendum in 2004
• City Regions - Revival of old (little loved?) structures (Greater

Manchester, Avon etc.)

• Directly elected mayors - outside London not proven very

popular when put to voters in referendums

• Impetus from Scottish independence referendum –

EVEL/English Parliament

Give More Decision-Making Powers to Local Areas?

82 15 3

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Support Oppose Don't Know

ComRes/BBC: October 2014. ‘Giving more decision making powers on issues such as tax, education, policing to local areas’

Support More Decision-Making Powers to Local Areas

8 4 41 35 13 10 20 30 40 50 60 Support Neither/Don't Know Oppose Strongly Tend to

Ipsos MORI/NLGN/PwC Northern Powerhouse Survey: Sept 2015. ‘Thinking overall, to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving more decision-making powers (on issues such as economic development, transport, housing, planning and policing) to local areas?’

Little Regional Variation

44 54 57 46 48 42 53 46 46 20 16 14 15 14 18 19 18 17 10 20 30 40 50 60 North East North West Yorks West Mids East Mids East South West South East London Support Oppose Source: Ipsos MORI/NLGN/PwC Northern Powerhouse Survey: Sept 2015.

Expected Impact of Devolution to Local Areas

• n Local Services

38 45 17

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Positive Neutral/Don't Know Negative

ComRes/ICE survey Feb 2016: Overall, do you think that devolution of powers from central government in Westminster to local areas is likely to have a positive or negative impact on local services?

And on the Local Economy

10 5 42 29 15

10 20 30 40 50 60 Strongly Tend to

ComRes/ICE survey Feb 2016; To what extent do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements on devolution to local areas? Devolution will help boost local economies

Who should take Decisions?

14 41 42 55 66 71 76 41 46 35 23 19 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Bus Franchising Fracking Energy Facilities Train Lines Power Stations Motorways

Central Local

ComRes/ICE survey Feb 2016

Uniformity or Local Decision?

39 39 48 50 64 69 74 76 54 53 44 43 28 24 19 17 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Refuse Planning Housing Public Transport Nurseries etc Social services Primary school Secondary school Uniform Local Councils Decide Source: Future of England Survey 2014

A Scattering of Preferences

23 15 31 20 21

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 As now City Regions English Parliament Regional Assemblies Don't Know

% acceptable

Opinium: August 2015.

Who Ought to Have Most Influence?

13 9 7 17 23 11

5 10 15 20 25 Local Councils Regional Assemblies City Regions English Parliament EVEL UK Parliament

Source: Future of England Smith Commission Survey 2014

Some Regional Variation

18 17 25 25 26 13 35 17

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 As Now City Regions English Parliament Regional Assemblies North South (excl London)

Opinium: August 2015.

Devolving Tax Powers - 1

• As you may know, in September there will be a referendum in which Scots

will vote on whether they want Scotland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or separate to become an independent country. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have all said that if Scotland votes to stay in the UK, the Scottish Parliament should have increased powers to choose the level of income tax in Scotland and how it is spent.

• And to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving similar

powers to choose their own levels of taxation and spending for major cities, such as London, Birmingham and Manchester?

• And to what extent, if at all, do you support or oppose giving similar

powers to choose their own levels of taxation and spending for English regions, such as the South West or Yorkshire and Humber?

Devolving Tax Powers - 2

30 31 15 14 55 55

10 20 30 40 50 60 City Regions Regional Assemblies Support Neither/DK Oppose

Ipsos MORI: June 2014;

Forms of Devolution

• With all the changes going on in the way the different parts of Great

Britain are run, which of the following do you think would be best for England...

• ...for England to be governed as it is now, with laws made by the UK

parliament,

• for each region of England to have its own assembly that runs

services like health,

• or, for England as a whole to have its own new parliament with law-

making powers?

In 2004–2006 the second option read “that makes decisions about the region’s economy, planning and housing”.

The Governance of England

62 54 57 56 50 53 54 54 57 51 49 53 56 56 56 50 52 15 18 23 20 26 21 20 18 14 15 15 13 12 15 15 23 18 18 19 16 17 18 21 18 21 17 26 29 23 25 22 19 20 22

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 15 18 As Now Regional Assemblies English Parliament

Source: British Social Attitudes. Respondents in England only

Summary

• Brexit has been (and still is) both divisive and disruptive of our

electoral politics

• There has been something of a reaction against austerity and of a

swing in favour of government intervention in the economy

• Support for devolution in England is fractured – and has not

necessarily been boosted by Brexit.