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BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

britainthinks.com

The Brexit Diaries

The view from the voters

The Brexit Diaries

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100 people In 10 locations Weekly diary

January → Article 50

General Election

18 April → 8 June

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Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high 3. 4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but Remainers lack a competing narrative 2. Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many 5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

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Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high 3. 2. 4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many 5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

Leavers and Remainers see the world very differently…

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Leave Remain

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Die-hards Devastated pessimists Accepting pragmatists Cautious optimists

…but there are actually four different attitudes towards Brexit

For “die-hards”, Brexit has been life-changing

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• Feel vindicated by Brexit
• Very unwilling to accept that there could be

any negative consequences

• Driven by righteous indignation and urgency
• Extreme concern, bordering on paranoia,

about any attempt to “derail” Brexit “For most of my adult life, certainly in the past 20 years, I’ve felt an impotent rage that nothing could change. But now it has.” “So much news makes me too angry to read, such as the liberal elite railing against democracy because they don't agree with leaving the EU and using their wealth to take their petulance to the Courts.” “I texted all my friends – Happy Brexit Day!”

“Cautious optimists” have concerns, but no regrets

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“I heard on the radio that the government have voted to start the motion for Brexit. I feel relieved they’ve made a decision finally, but worried about changes.”

• Still believe Brexit is best for Britain
• Very confused about the process
• Worried about uncertainty of outcome and division
• However, winning on sovereignty and immigration
• utweighs these concerns

“I’m a bit happy and a bit nervous too because we don’t know what’s coming next.”

“Accepting pragmatists” want to move on

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“Theresa May’s speech lifted my hopes and perhaps it’s not all doom and gloom.”

• Initially disappointed, but have come to terms

with result and are resigned to it – no longer full

• f anguish
• Now want best Brexit for Britain
• Concerned about future generations

“I feel nervous, but the decision has been made – I just hope it will work out ok in the end.”

“Devastated pessimists” are still very much opposed to the result

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“Theresa May’s speech angered me because I still believe that Brexit will not be of benefit to this country and that a lot of people voted to Leave based on invalid opinions.”

• Cannot see any positives
• Many are bitter about the new political

establishment

• Believe that Leave voters have been duped

“I just wish it wasn’t happening. I’m as gutted as ever about it.”

Most people are at either end of the spectrum

37%

16%

14% 30% 4%

Older Lower SEG Semi-urban / rural Middle-aged Women Lower SEG Younger Higher SEG Younger Higher SEG Metropolitan

None

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37%

16%

14% 30% 4%

None

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38%

18%

12% 27% 5%

19 March 2017 1 June 2017

Very little has changed since Article 50

And there are still deep splits across society

56% 50% 38% 32% 20% 13% 37% 13% 16% 19% 14% 17% 14% 16%

11% 10% 13% 13% 15% 23% 14%

19% 22% 25% 33% 41% 45% 30% 65+ 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 18-24 Overall

Age Socio-economic grade

43% 43% 34% 29% 37% 17% 19% 15% 12% 16%

10% 8% 16% 19% 14%

23% 27% 31% 36% 30% DE C2 C1 AB Overall

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Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high 3. 2. 4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many 5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

Most are increasingly resigned to Brexit meaning higher inflation

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“I’m not sure [how much it will cost], but it is more likely to cost me than save me money.” “There will probably be an increase in the price of everything and there’s nothing we can do to stop it.” “It will cost me far more money on goods. I don’t think I will save anything.”

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“Like most people I’m worried what everyday prices will be affected by leaving.”

• Concern about rising prices is mentioned as the most significant concern about Brexit by all

segments, together with job losses and higher taxes

• Higher prices is the only negative consequence they have so far experienced personally – both in

terms of increased shopping bills and more expensive holidays

…but price increases are viewed with scepticism by all segments

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• Price increases are widely seen as cynical and opportunist – blame falls
• n individual companies rather than the government
• Blaming Brexit for price increases rarely seen as credible, particularly at

this early stage in the process – seen as “betrayal” and “greedy”

“I don’t know about the logistics but shame on them if they are increasing prices on a forecast instead of facts.” “They were very quick to increase prices, and not clear on their justification. I’m less keen on the company.” “The companies are taking advantage and being greedy… Brexit should not be an excuse to push up prices.” “It’s very sad that these companies have to make money from scaremongering.”

…while job news is viewed as unrelated to Brexit

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• Many link news of jobs moving to the EU to wider global economic forces,

unrelated to Brexit

• Frequently viewed with a sense of resignation and powerlessness
• Seen as part of being a savvy business
• Devastated pessimists and accepting pragmatists are both concerned

about job losses – Leave voters much less so.

“We live in a very flexible world and companies move for various reasons. It may not have anything to do with Brexit.” “Vodafone will go wherever it’s cheapest, regardless of

• Brexit. There’s not much

we can do.” “This will be particularly bad for the economy, so I do hope this won’t be the case.”

Trade is very important for all segments

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• All segments except for die-hards cite continuing to trade

with the EU as important – and all except devastated pessimists are optimistic that we will.

• Die-hards are more likely to reject a future relationship

with the EU entirely and focus on trade with the rest of the world.

• All segments see the ability to trade with new countries

as a major advantage of Brexit.

• The terms ‘Single Market’ and ‘Customs Union’ are

poorly understood and rarely mentioned.

“I don’t think trade with the EU will be lower after Brexit.” “There is vast trade to be done with the US.”

But all economic considerations are outweighed for Leavers

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Sovereignty Immigration Economy

• For Leave voters, the opportunities to control

immigration and restore ‘sovereignty’ were the main drivers of their vote

• Economic issues are acknowledged, but both

‘die-hards’ and ‘cautious optimists’ say that they matter less than ‘control’

• ‘Project Fear’ not being seen to be true makes

many optimistic about the economy

• This may change over time – however

significant and directly attributable effects would be necessary.

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Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high 3. 2. 4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many 5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

Expectations of a ‘good deal’ are low…

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Average rating among Leave Voters Average rating among Remain Voters

5.0

(out of 10)

3.8

(out of 10) Perceived likelihood of getting a good deal

• All segments blame this on the EU seeking to “punish” the UK
• And Leave segments don’t see a deal with the EU as necessary for

future success

“We’ve been on

• ur own before,

we can do it again – we’re a great little country.” “The EU want to be punitive to stop any

• ther country

thinking it’s a good idea to leave.”

…but expectations for life after Brexit are sky-high

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The Government’s strategy of feeding rather than managing expectations has clearly delivered results…

“I am looking forward to

• it. This is a fantastic
• pportunity to rebuild

the country: more police, better hospitals, more schools and teachers.” “A chance to explore a different avenue for

• Britain. To see whether

this could make Britain even more successful.” “We’ll have complete control over how our country is run.” “We can control our borders and have our

• wn laws, freedom to

trade outside the EU without restriction and not pay out vast sums

• f money to the EU.”

…especially on immigration

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“Immigration must be stopped – no more East Europeans.” “Immigration needs to go as low as it can possibly go.” “Ending immigration was why Brexit happened – it needs to be ended if at all possible.” “It will be very frustrating if immigration doesn’t fall dramatically after Brexit.”

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Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high 3. 2. 4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many 5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

Remain voters have not been communicated to

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• Leave voters are continually ‘on-message’
• Remain voters are inconsistent, unsure what they should

think, and persuaded there is no alternative

• There is very little understanding about the impact of

Brexit, or how bad it could be

• Deal currently seen as take it or leave it – there is no

sense of any alternative course to going ahead.

“They need us more than we need them.” “No deal is better than a bad deal.” “WTO rules will be fine.” “What happens if the negotiations go badly? No going back is frightening.” “I hate what is happening, but surely that ship has sailed.” “What will the outcome be? Presumably we will still trade with the EU and still have free movement?”

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Expectations for a ‘good deal’ are low, but for life after the EU are sky high 3. 2. 4. Leave voters are ‘on-message’ but remainers lack a competing narrative Economic issues are central, but outweighed for many 5. The General Election may have re-engaged remainers 1. Leavers and Remainers split into four voter segments

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“The question is: who do we want in charge of how we leave?” “We need a strong person in charge for the negotiations.” “If it’s 27 against 1, we need our strongest people at the table.” “This is no time for a coalition – we need a government with a big majority to go into the negotiations.” “Who is going to be the strongest leader to get the best deal for us?” “I’ll be voting for strength, direction, and who will represent the UK in the best light possible”.

Theresa May initially framed the election around Brexit

…and Brexit did seem to play a role in the result

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• Labour did well in seats which were Remain

strongholds, with their vote share increasing by 12 points in the strongest voting Remain seats

• There was a small swing to the Conservatives in the

seats with the largest Leave vote

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But voters’ fear of coalition means they now expect a bad deal

“I wanted a Conservative majority win so that Brexit talks would go smoothly.” “How is a minority government in alliance with the DUP going to handle the Brexit negotiations?” “Theresa May has significantly weakened her position by calling this election and then running a shambolic campaign.”

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And confidence in the Government’s negotiating position has fallen

BritainThinks | Private and Confidential

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Thank you.