TRANSITION FROM HIGH SCHOOL TO POST SECONDARY RICHARD DOMINIC - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

FUTURE JOB PROSPECTS: TRANSITION FROM HIGH SCHOOL TO POST SECONDARY

RICHARD DOMINIC WIGGERS

Pierre Elliott Trudeau High School – Thursday, April 6, 2017

Professor

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I have a diverse personal background which informs my views

Employer First Generation Education Policy

CHOOSING POST HIGH SCHOOL PATHWAYS

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Many decisions about postsecondary education are made before high school

4 Always Known 40% Decided by Grade 9 or 10 40% Grade 11 or 12 20%

% of Students who Determined PSE Pathway Source: Finnie, R., Childs, S., Wismer, A., MESA L-SLIS Research Brief #1: When Did You Decide? (2012).

Despite their best efforts, guidance counsellors are not the main influencers

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51 31 17 16 16 15 9 10 20 30 40 50 60 Parent(s) or Guardian(s) Someone they admire working in a field they like Sibling(s) Friend(s) Guidance counsellor(s) The Media (e.g. movies) Teachers Guidance Couselors Reporting “Very Much” Influence on PSE Decisions Source: Dietsche, P., “Career Planning in Ontario Grade 10 Students: Counsellor Perspectives,” The Canadian Journal of Career Development (12:1, 2013).

Young people need to explore what their passions and priorities are What You Love What Pays Well What You’re Good At

Just a Dream Rich But Bored Happy But Poor

THE ONE!!

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Passion+for+Work&FORM=RESTAB#view= detail&id=C07C45AC94512A8B4032674CEF6DFAD914C7738A&selectedIndex=13

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HEQCO and OSCA developed a guide for high school students & parents

• Original version developed by UTM
• Encourages high school students to consider

all postsecondary options, including college, trades, the “gap year”, etc.

• Engage parents in discussions with their

son/daughter about their future aspirations

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POSTSECONDARY OPTIONS

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Half of Ontario higher education

• ccurs outside of the universities

20 Universities

(400,000 undergraduate and 60,000 graduate)

24 Colleges

(230,000 students) 420 Licensed Private Career Colleges

(50,000 students)

Apprenticeships

(120,000 students)

1000+ Unlicensed Private Career Colleges

Source: R. Pizarro Milian and M. Hicks, Ontario Private Career Colleges: An Explanatory Analysis (HEQCO: 2014); Council of Ontario Universities, Summary of Enrolments in Ontario Universities 2004-05 to 2013-14.

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Ontario is already achieving the goal of “mass higher education”

64.8% 56.7% 62.2% 70.3% 70.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 25-64 55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma College, CEGEP or other non-univeristy certificate or diploma University

Ontario Goal

Source: HEQCO from Statistics Canada, Census 2011.

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The Ontario government is currently promoting what they call “free tuition” for Fall 2017

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Source: Hicks, M., Stardate 68183.1: Ontarians still do not pay the sticker price (HEQCO: September 19, 2014); Usher, A., The Many Prices of Knowledge: How Tuition and Subsidies Interact in Canadian Higher Education (HESA: August 26, 2014).

(typical one year cost for undergraduate study) Average Undergraduate University Tuition/Fees

Scholarships ($800) 30% Ontario Rebate ($1,700) Income Tax Credits ($2,600) OSAP Grants ($2,800) Four provinces also introduced additional tuition tax credits totalling up to $25,000 for postsecondary graduates living in province.

Financial issues are not the biggest barrier to students going to PSE or staying

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In decisions to apply for postsecondary programs of study:

• Level of parental PSE was a more important factor than family income
• For some communities immigrant background was most important

Multiple studies of college/university dropouts:

• The biggest reason was “didn’t like it/not for me”
• The second most common reason was to “change schools or programs”

Source: R. Finnie, S. Childs and T. Qiu, Patterns of Persistence in PSE (2011); also Academica, From Postsecondary Application to the Labour Market (2010); Government of NB, High School Follow-Up Survey (2007).

JOBS AND CAREERS

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Postsecondary institutions may be

• ver-marketing their credentials

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Credentials

Some seem to view PSE credentials as job vouchers

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Many high school and university graduates lack basic literacy skills

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Ontario high schools:

• The graduation rate has increased from 68% to 85.5% in less than a

decade

• Approximately half of incoming college students can’t pass a basic

entrance literacy test Statistics Canada (September 14, 2016):

• Of the university graduates working in a job that only required high

school, half had low literacy skills and/or trouble working with numbers

A good example of the lack of skills can be seen in job applications

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Source: Borwein, S. (2014). Bridging the Divide, Part I: What Canadian Job Ads Said. Toronto: HEQCO: Borwein, S. (2014). The Great Skills Divide: A Review of the Literature. Toronto: HEQCO.

47% 22% 21% 11% University or College (Indifferent) University College Diploma Other (non- university)

Level of PSE Required in Job Advertisements

Employers want not just PSE credentials, but also work experience

24% 2% 54% 14% 6% No experience necessary <1 year 1 to 2 years 3+ years Duration not specified

Job postings by minimum years of work experience

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Being “successful” in life is about more than just good grades in school, or credentials

Source: J. Burrow, M. Dooley, T. Wright and L. DeClou, @Issue Paper No. 13, A Report on the Postsecondary Decisions of High-Achieving Students in Ontario. (HEQCO: 2012); http://you.ubc.ca/admissions/how-to-apply/personal-profile/.

HEQCO study on “high achievers”:

• Often involved in student council, athletics, school clubs, working part-time,

volunteering, writing for school newspaper or yearbook, acting as tutors, etc. UBC applicants have to make a video “Personal Profile”:

• “gives you the opportunity to tell UBC about the things that are important

to you, your significant achievements, what you’ve learned from your experiences, and the challenges that you’ve overcome.”

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Skills gap/skills shortage Essential skills critical thinking, problem solving, communication, numeracy, teamwork, time management Nontrainable skills positive attitude, honesty, work ethic, attention to detail, grit, determination

There are many “expert” opinions when it comes to labour market trends and needs

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HOW BAD IS THE JOB SITUATION?

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The media seeks a bleak future for PSE graduates

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 800 850 900 950 1000 1050

Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13

Employment numbers and unemployment rate, Ontario, 15-24 years

Source: MTCU, data from Labour Force Survey.

Thousands of jobs disappeared in 2008-09

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The most recent recession was not the worst in terms of youth unemployment

Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table, Labour Force Survey (LFS) Estimates, Table 282-0002.

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2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Unemployment Rate, Ontario, Ages 25-29

Males Females

How “screwed” is this generation in comparison to the past?

Source: Ross Finnie (2002) "Early Labour Market Outcomes of Recent Canadian Univeristy Graduates by Discipline: A Longitudinal, Cross-Cohort Analysis". Statistics Canada: 11F0019MIE No. 164; Mary Allen and Chantal Vaillancourt (2004) "Class of 2000: Profile of postsecondary graduates and student debt". Statistics Canada: 81-595-MIE No. 016.

2 years after bachelors 1976 1990 2000 2010 Unemployment rate 8% 9% 7% 5% Average income (nominal) $14,600 $28,997 $39,667 $54,133 Average income (real $2014) $57,132 $46,306 $52,058 $58,172 Related to field of study 80% 71% n/a 82% 25

Labour market returns vary by discipline, and all were impacted by the recession

Source: University Graduate Employment Survey data, cited in Higher Education Strategy Associates, "The Arts Problem(s),” November 24, 2014.

$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 2003 2005 2007 2009 2010 2011

Average annual income two years after graduation, Ontario graduated with a bachelors (nominal $)

Total (all disciplines) Humanities Physical Science Business/Commerce Computer Science Engineering

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University graduates in most disciplines do well, especially over time

Finnie, Ross, Stephen Childs, Dejan Pavlic, Nemanja Jevtovic (2014), How Much Do University Graduates Earn?” EPRI #GradEarnings RESEARCH BRIEF #3 (Version ‘14‐11‐21), The Education Policy Research Initiative, University of Ottawa

$0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Mean Earnings of Social Science Graduates from 1998-2013 ($2011)

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The labour market is also changing for the regulated professions

Source: PRISM Economics and Analysis, Labour Market Trends and Outlooks for Regulated Professions in Ontario (HEQCO: 2016)

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Nursing Education Medicine Law Architecture Engineering

2.5%/year growth Decline 3.6%/year growth 4.4%/year growth 2.2%/year growth 6.2%/year growth 88% female 76% female 56% female 55% female 48% female 18% female 92%+

• prof. licenced

88-90%

• prof. licenced

63-67%

• prof. licenced

96%+

• prof. licenced

18-20%

• prof. licenced

18-38%

• prof. licenced

96% working in related job 75% working in related job 99% working in related job 84% working in related job 76% working in related job 67% working in related job

Future demand is expected to continue to grow. Job market expected to improve significantly, with possible future shortages Many newly certified physicians are encountering difficulties finding positions. Future cohorts will face greater competition and falling earnings Many will need to pursue employment outside of Ontario or in other work A valued qualification the can open doors to many different careers

HEQCO was a great case study in what you can do with various credentials

29 History Engineering Psychology Mass Communication Medieval Studies Accounting Sociology Political Science Law Philosophy Economics Geography Environmental Studies Religious Studies

THANK YOU!!

RICHARD DOMINIC WIGGERS

leisurenb@rogers.com