transboundary calculations for follow-up Bo Gustafsson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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transboundary calculations for follow-up Bo Gustafsson - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Aug 18, 2023 125 likes •356 views

Some basics of nutrient ceilings and transboundary calculations for follow-up Bo Gustafsson bo.gustafsson@su.se www.balticnest.org The Country - basin catchments Inputs are primarily assigned to the country doing the monitoring

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SLIDE 1

Some basics of nutrient ceilings and transboundary calculations for follow-up

Bo Gustafsson

bo.gustafsson@su.se www.balticnest.org

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SLIDE 2

The “Country-basin” catchments

  • Inputs are primarily assigned

to the country doing the monitoring (owning the river mouth)

  • Major rivers carry nutrients

from upstream countries (transboundary inputs) Reduction requirements are shared with the countries upstream

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SLIDE 3
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SLIDE 4

How to compute national (net) inputs to the Baltic Sea

waterborne airborne Transboundary via downstream country Transboundary from upstream country

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SLIDE 5

Transboundary waterborne reference data

“ ” “B ” “ ” “ ” ö “ ” From Via To Border Retention To Baltic Share of input TN TP TN TP TN TP TN TP tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes (%) (%) From non-Contracting Parties: Czech Poland BAP 5,700 410 0.4 0.28 3,420 295 1.1 1.7 Belarus Lithuania BAP 13,600 914 0.54 0.53 6,256 430 2.1 2.5 Ukraine Poland BAP 4,124 127 0.4 0.28 2,474 91 0.8 0.5 Belarus Poland BAP 5,071 331 0.4 0.28 3,043 238 1.0 1.4 Total BAP 15,193 1,055 5.1 6.1 Belarus Latvia GUR 8,532 1,360 0.27 0.32 6,228 925 7.9 41.4 Between Contracting Parties Lithuania Latvia BAP 5,516 158 0.39 0.58 3,365 66 1.1 0.4 Poland Russia BAP 4,400 320 0.30 0.37 3,080 202 1.0 1.2 Germany Poland BAP 2.337 101 0.8 0.6 Total BAP 8,782 369 3.0 2.1 Lithuania Latvia GUR 7,185 282 0,27 0,32 5,245 192 6.7 8.6 Russia Latvia GUR 4,256 734 0,54 0,71 1,957 215 2.5 9.6 Total GUR 7,202 407 9.2 18.2 Finland Russia GUF 0.48 0.82 5,353 49 5.2 0.7

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SLIDE 6

Nitrogen CART

BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK

  • 5
  • 50

2136 42

  • 7
  • 1725

708 1099 EE

  • 2
  • 18

382 1419

  • 253
  • 1

1528 FI

  • 692
  • 1642

424 2603

  • 5
  • 4

2 687 DE

  • 16
  • 176

7419 165

  • 28
  • 1250

79 6193 LV

  • 1
  • 15

1645 23

  • 1045
  • 1

1 606 LT

  • 2
  • 27

8935 33

  • 112
  • 3

1 8824 PL

  • 13
  • 155

43436 147

  • 26
  • 64

27 43352 RU

  • 14
  • 86

2498 7879

  • 49
  • 10

4 10222 SE

  • 354
  • 1848

8356 63

  • 9
  • 354

826 6680 OC 809 2848 14725 1486 1209 2751 2511 26339 SS 289 1169 5735 592 449 661 602 9496 BY 1977

  • 123

1854 CZ 727 727 UA 526 526 Sum 98921 14452 4761 118134 Since expected reductions from shipping and Gothenburg protocol also would be expected in basins without reduction requirements, burden will be less on CPs to these basins

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SLIDE 7

Phosphorus CART

BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK 38 38 EE 15 268 38 321 FI 364 364 DE 175 175 LV 129 86 215 LT 1441 26 1467 PL 7477 7477 RU 481 3277 30 3788 SE 535 535 OC BY 424 128 552 CZ 187 187 UA 58 58 Sum 10960 3909 308 15177

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SLIDE 8

Definition of nutrient input ceiling

Net inputs as defined by the PLC 5.5 reference data set

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SLIDE 9

Nitrogen ceilings

BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK 231 904 7910 334 381 30313 29319 69392 EE 95 317 1413 11265 13029 18 20 26156 FI 35081 29619 1569 20653 255 64 77 87318 DE 817 3170 27473 1312 1465 21957 3285 59480 LV 63 273 6091 183 53898 24 25 60558 LT 110 491 33093 261 5795 54 60 39864 PL 644 2802 160857 1166 1361 1125 1106 169062 RU 710 1551 9253 62522 2516 174 174 76900 SE 17924 33350 30942 502 449 6224 34206 123597 OC 1876 6603 33002 3455 2804 5880 5579 59199 SS 72 292 1434 147 112 165 149 2372 BY 7322 6352 13673 CZ 2693 2693 UA 1948 1948 Sum 57622 79372 325001 101800 88418 65998 74001 792212

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SLIDE 10

Phosphorus ceilings

BB BS BP GF GR DS KT Sum DK 21 1040 829 1890 EE 8 236 239 483 FI 1668 1255 322 3245 DE 101 351 451 LV 74 541 615 LT 831 166 996 PL 4309 4309 RU 277 2892 185 3354 SE 826 1125 308 105 740 3104 OC 181 394 1046 150 93 105 118 2087 SS BY 244 797 1041 CZ 108 108 UA 33 33 Sum 2675 2773 7360 3600 2020 1601 1687 21717

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SLIDE 11

CART and Nutrient Ceilings are decided and should not be changed!

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SLIDE 12

Waterborne transboundary inputs

The transboundary input (to the Baltic) is given by the observed input at the border between a and b, reduced by the retention in country b Three possibilities for a subsequent period: Case 1: No data at all on waterborne transboundary inputs Case 2: Data available on the border for the period Case 3: Data available on the border as well as on retention

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SLIDE 13

Case 1: no data available

Assume that transboundary inputs change in proportion to the total waterborne input from the country-basin catchment

NB! It is important to notice that when estimating the transboundary contributions in the CART follow-up, a time-series are constructed using the updated data set and in order to maintain the transboundary contributions in the reference period, the average inputs 1997-2003 of the updated data set was used in the share calculations.

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SLIDE 14

Case 2: Data available on border inputs

Use the same retention as for the reference period

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SLIDE 15

Case 3: Data available on both border inputs and retention

Use the new values to calculate the transboundary inputs

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SLIDE 16

Example 1: Evaluating P in Gulf of Riga

  • NW

NA NB R Sum NT NL CART NC EE 277

  • 277

38 239 LV 1959

  • 1332

627 86 541 LT

  • 282

0.32 192 192 26 166 RU

  • 734

0.71 215 215 30 185 BY

  • 1360 0.32

925 925 128 797 Other

  • 93
  • 93
  • 93
  • Table

1: Summary

  • f

various terms in the phosphorus inputs to the Gulf

  • f

Riga in the reference period 1997-2003 according to the

  • riginal

PLC5.5 data set.

Calculation of Ceiling

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SLIDE 17

Transboundary inputs 2010-12

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SLIDE 18

Progress

  • NW

NA Sum NT NL NC EE 183

  • 183

239 LV 2065

  • 1389

676 541 LT

  • 200

200 166 RU

  • 224

224 185 BY

  • 965

965 797 Other

  • 93
  • 93

93

Table 2: Calculation

  • f

the national inputs to Gulf

  • f

Riga in the 2010-2012 period.

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SLIDE 19

Example 2: New data on border inputs, GR - phosphorus

  • As Example 1, but
  • Assume that new data show that:

NBLT,LV,GR = 200 t/yr in the 2010-2012 period

  • Leading to:
  • Still NWLV,GR = 2065 t/yr therefore the remaining input,

2065 – 136 = 1929 t/yr needs to be attributed to the

  • ther countries (LV, BY and RU)
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SLIDE 20

Example 2: continued

  • Logical in this case is that transboundary inputs

from BY and RU are assumed to be same as in Example 1, and LV inputs are adjusted

  • NW

NA Sum NT NL NC EE 183

  • 183

239 LV 2065

  • 1325

740 541 LT

  • 136

136 166 RU

  • 224

224 185 BY

  • 965

965 797 Other

  • 93
  • 93

93

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SLIDE 21

Example 3: calculation of national (net) inputs of P from Lithuania to Baltic proper

  • In CART calculation:
  • Waterborne inputs (1997-03 and 2010-12):
  • Transboundary inputs 2010-12:
  • Net inputs 2010-12: