Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Restoration of a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Jan 01, 2024 41 likes •131 views

Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Subject to Climate Change a Stochastic Dynamic Investment Game by Robert McKelvey University of Montana, USA and and Peter Golubtsov, Moscow

SLIDE 1

Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Restoration of a Distressed Transboundary Fishery Subject to Climate Change— a Stochastic Dynamic Investment Game

by

Robert McKelvey

University of Montana, USA and and

Peter Golubtsov,

Moscow University, Russia

SLIDE 2

EEZs in the Western and Central Pacific EEZs in the Western and Central Pacific

EEZs = Extended Economic Zones of Coastal States

SLIDE 3

Single season - stock dynamics Single season - stock dynamics

Climatic fluctuations affect stock distribution across 3 areas: 2 coastal EEZs ( and ) ( ) & one high seas area ()

SLIDE 4

Players’ Current Goals Players’ Current Goals

SLIDE 5

The Players and their In‐Season Actions The Players and their In‐Season Actions

SLIDE 6

Single Season of the Dynamic Game Single Season of the Dynamic Game

A Three-Stage subgame-perfect Nash Equilibrium (NE) Actions Players Analysis Actions Players Analysis

RFMO

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Sites

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Fleets Fleets

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SLIDE 8

Fleets Sites 250 yoffs Fleets Sites 12 ars

Buyout with External Investments Buyout with External Investments

Sites Industry Investor 100 150 200 tive Discounted Future Payo Sites Total 4 6 8 10 12 al Payoffs in Current Dollars

llars

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 50 Season Cumulative

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2 4 Season Annual P

0.5 6 8 10 12 per Effort Unit in Current Dolla 10 15 20 25 30 bt in Current Dollars −2.5 −2 −1.5 −1 −0.5 0.5 tment in Current Dollars

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2 4 Season Annual Payoff pe 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 5 10 Season Debt

0.5

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 −3.5 −3 −2.5 Season Investm

30 40 50 60 Stock Level R 0.2 0.3 0.4 Total Effort E 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 20 Season S 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0.1 Season T

SLIDE 9

Fleets Sites 12 lars Fleets Sites 250 ayoffs

Buyout without External Investments Buyout without External Investments

Sites Total 4 6 8 10 al Payoffs in Current Dollar Sites Industry Investor 100 150 200 250 tive Discounted Future Pay 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2 Season Annual 16 t Dollars 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 50 Season Cumulativ 6 8 10 12 14 16 per Effort Unit in Current D −0.8 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 tment in Current Dollars 0.5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2 4 6 Season Annual Payoff pe 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 −1.2 −1 Season Investm 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Total Effort E 30 40 50 60 Stock Level R 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0.1 0.2 Season To 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 10 20 Season Sto