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▼❛①✐♠✉♠ ❊♥tr♦♣② ▼♦❞❡❧s ✐♥ ◆❡✉r♦s❝✐❡♥❝❡ ▼❛tt❤✐❛s ❍❡♥♥✐❣

❚♦❞❛②✬s t♦♣✐❝s ✶✳ ▼❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡♥tr♦♣② ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❧❡ ✷✳ ❇✐♥❛r② r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥s ♦❢ ♥❡✉r❛❧ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ✸✳ ❚❤❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ❛♥❞ ♣❛✐r✇✐s❡ ❜✐♥❛r② ▼❛①❊♥t ♠♦❞❡❧s ✹✳ ❋✐tt✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧s ✺✳ ❆ss❡ss✐♥❣ t❤❡ ♠♦❞❡❧s ❛♥❞ s♦♠❡ ❛♣♣❧✐❝❛t✐♦♥s

❆✐♠ ◮ ❲❡ ❤❛✈❡ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② r❡❝♦r❞❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ❛ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ♥❡✉r♦♥s✳ ◮ ❆ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥✿ s♦♠❡ ❛s♣❡❝ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❞❡♣❡♥❞ ♦♥ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ♥❡✉r♦♥s✳ ◮ ❇✉t ✇❡ ❝❛♥✬t ❛❝❝❡ss t❤❡ ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ♣❛r❛♠❡t❡rs ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥❡✉r♦♥s✳ ◮ ❍❡♥❝❡ t❤❡r❡ ❛r❡ ✐♥s✉✣❝✐❡♥t ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts ❢♦r ❞❡t❛✐❧❡❞ ♠♦❞❡❧❧✐♥❣✳ ◗✉❡st✐♦♥✿ ❈❛♥ ✇❡ ✐♥❢❡r s♦♠❡ ♣r♦♣❡rt✐❡s ♦❢ s②st❡♠ ❜② ✉s✐♥❣ ♠♦❞❡❧s s♦❧❡❧② ❝♦♥str❛✐♥❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ ❞❛t❛❄

❚❤❡ ▼❛①❊♥t ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❧❡ ■♥❢♦r♠❛❧❧②✿ ◮ ❲❡ s❡❡❦ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ❤✐❣❤❡st ❡♥tr♦♣② ❣✐✈❡♥ s♦♠❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts✳ ◮ ❈♦♥str❛✐♥ts✿ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐st✐❝ q✉❛♥t✐t✐❡s ✭❡✳❣✳ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ♠♦♠❡♥ts ❢r♦♠ ❞❛t❛✮✳ ◮ ▼❛①❊♥t✿ ♣r❡s❡r✈❡s ❛❧❧ ✐♥✈❛r✐❛♥❝❡s ♥♦t s✉❜❥❡❝t t♦ t❤❡s❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts✳ ◮ ▼❛①❊♥t ♠♦❞❡❧s ✇❤❛t ✇❡ ❦♥♦✇ ✭❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛✮✱ ❜✉t ♥♦t ♠♦r❡✳ ◮ ▼❛①❊♥t ❤❡❧♣s t♦ s❡❡ ✇❤❛t ❡❧s❡ ✇❡ ♠✐❣❤t ✇❛♥t t♦ ❦♥♦✇✳ ❘❡❧❛t✐♦♥ t♦ ♣❤②s✐❝s✿ ◮ ❊♥tr♦♣② ✐♥ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♠❡❝❤❛♥✐❝s ❛♥❞ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐♦♥ t❤❡♦r② ❛r❡ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ t❤✐♥❣ ✭❏❛②♥❡s✱ ✶✾✺✼❛✱❜✮✳ ◮ ✷✳ ❧❛✇ ♦❢ t❤❡r♠♦❞②♥❛♠✐❝s✿ P❤②s✐❝❛❧ s②st❡♠s ❣♦ ✐♥t♦ st❛t❡s ♦❢ ❤✐❣❤❡r ❡♥tr♦♣② ✇❤❡♥ t❤❡② ♠♦✈❡ t♦✇❛r❞s ❡q✉✐❧✐❜r✐✉♠✳ ◮ ▼❛①❊♥t ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞s t♦ t❤❡ st❛t❡ ✇✐t❤ t❤❡ ♠♦st ♠✐❝r♦st❛t❡s✳

▼❛①❊♥t✿ r❛♥❣❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥t ❲❡ ❤❛✈❡ ◆ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥t st❛t❡s ♦❢ ♦✉r s②st❡♠ ✇✐t❤ ✉♥❦♥♦✇♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t✐❡s ♣ ✐ ✳ ❲❡ ❦♥♦✇ ♥♦t❤✐♥❣ ❡①❝❡♣t t❤❛t t❤❡ s②st❡♠ ✐s ✜♥✐t❡✦ ❲❤❛t ✐s ♦✉r ❜❡st ❣✉❡ss ❢♦r t❤❡ ♣ ✐ ✬s❄ ❲r✐t❡ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥t ❛s ▲❛❣r❛♥❣✐❛♥✿ � ◆ ◆ � � � ▲ = − ♣ ✐ ❧♦❣ ♣ ✐ + λ ♣ ✐ − ✶ ✐ = ✶ ✐ = ✶ ◆♦✇ ✜♥❞ ♠❛①✐♠✉♠✿ ∂ ▲ = − ❧♦❣ ♣ ❥ − ✶ + λ = ✵ ∂ ♣ ❥ ❙♦❧✉t✐♦♥✿ t❤❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ❡ λ − ✶ = ✶ ♣ ❥ = ◆

▼❛①❊♥t✿ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥t ♦♥ ♠❡❛♥ ❆ ♠❡❛s✉r❛❜❧❡ q✉❛♥t✐t② r ❤❛s ❛ ♠❡❛♥ ν r ✿ ◆ � r ✐ ♣ ✐ = ν r ✐ = ✶ � ◆ � ◆ ◆ � � � � � ▲ = ♣ ✐ ❧♦❣ ♣ ✐ + λ ✶ ♣ ✐ − ✶ + λ ✷ r ✐ ♣ ✐ − ν r − ✐ = ✶ ✐ = ✶ ✐ = ✶ ∂ ▲ = − ❧♦❣ ♣ ❥ − ✶ + λ ✶ + λ ✷ r ❥ = ✵ ∂ ♣ ❥ ν r ❡ λ ✶ − ✶ = � ◆ ✐ = ✶ r ✐ ❡ λ ✷ r ✐ ❡ λ ✶ + λ ✷ r ❥ − ✶ ♣ ❥ = ν r ❡ λ ✷ r ❥ = � ◆ ✐ = ✶ r ✐ ❡ λ ✷ r ✐ ν r ❡ − r ❥ ν r =

▼❛①❊♥t✿ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥t ♦♥ ♠❡❛♥ ❆ ♠❡❛s✉r❛❜❧❡ q✉❛♥t✐t② r ❤❛s ❛ ♠❡❛♥ ν r ✿ ˆ ∞ r♣ ( r ) ❞r = ν r ✵ ˆ ∞ � ˆ ∞ � ˆ ∞ � � ▲ = ♣ ( r ) ❧♦❣ ♣ ( r ) ❞r + λ ✶ ♣ ( r ) ❞r − ✶ + λ ✷ r♣ ( r ) ❞r − ν r − ✵ ✵ ✵ ∂ ▲ = − ❧♦❣ ♣ ( r ) − ✶ + λ ✶ + λ ✷ r = ✵ ∂ ♣ ❡ λ ✶ + λ ✷ r − ✶ ♣ ( r ) = ❡ λ ✷ r = ´ ∞ ❡ λ ✷ r ❞r ✵ ν r ❡ − r ν r = ❬♥✳❜✳ ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts ♦♥ ♠❡❛♥ ❛♥❞ ✈❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ②✐❡❧❞ t❤❡ ●❛✉ss✐❛♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✳❪

▼❛①❊♥t✿ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ s♦❧✉t✐♦♥ ˆ ∞ ❢ ✶ ( r ) ♣ ( r ) ❞r = ν ✶ ✵ ˆ ∞ ❢ ✷ ( r ) ♣ ( r ) ❞r = ν ✷ ✵ ✳ ✳ ✳ ˆ ∞ ❢ ▼ ( r ) ♣ ( r ) ❞r = ν ▼ ✵ ˆ ∞ � ˆ ∞ � = ♣ ( r ) ❧♦❣ ♣ ( r ) ❞r + λ ✵ ♣ ( r ) ❞r − ✶ ▲ − ✵ ✵ � ˆ ∞ ▼ � � + ❢ ✐ ( r ) ♣ ( r ) ❞r − ν ✐ λ ✐ ✵ ✐ = ✶ ❡ λ ✵ + � ▼ ✐ = ✶ λ ✐ ❢ ✐ ( r ) ♣ ( r ) =

▼✉❧t✐ ♥❡✉r♦♥ r❡❝♦r❞✐♥❣s ❬❞❛t❛ ❢r♦♠ ❙❝❤♥❡✐❞♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✻✮❪

▼✉❧t✐ ♥❡✉r♦♥ r❡❝♦r❞✐♥❣s P❛✐r✇✐s❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ♥❡t✇♦r❦ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② t❡♥❞ t♦ ❜❡ ✇❡❛❦✦ ❍♦✇ ❝❛♥ ✇❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ r♦❧❡ ♦❢ ✐♥t❡r❛❝t✐♦♥s ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ♥❡✉r♦♥s❄ ❬❞❛t❛ ❢r♦♠ ❙❝❤♥❡✐❞♠❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✵✻✮❪

❇✐♥❛r② r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s♣✐❦✐♥❣ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❚❤❡ st❛t❡ ♦❢ ❡❛❝❤ ♥❡✉r♦♥ ✐s ♠♦❞❡❧❧❡❞ ❛s ❛ s♣✐♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✿ � spike in [ t : t + ∆ t ] 1 σ ✐ ( t ) = − 1 no spike in [ t : t + ∆ t ] ❆❝t✐✈✐t② ♣❛tt❡r♥s ♦❢ ◆ ♥❡✉r♦♥s✿ { σ } = { σ ✶ , σ ✷ , . . . , σ ◆ } ✷ ◆ ♣❛tt❡r♥s ❲❡ ♥♦✇ ❧♦♦❦ ❢♦r ♠♦❞❡❧s t♦ r❡♣r♦❞✉❝❡ t❤✐s st❛t✐♦♥❛r② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✳ ❬♣✐❝t✉r❡ ❢r♦♠ ❖❤✐♦r❤❡♥✉❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮❪

❚❤❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ♠♦❞❡❧ ❈♦♥str❛✐♥t✿ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❛❝t✐✈✐t② ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ ◆ ♥❡✉r♦♥s r❡❝♦r❞❡❞ ♦✈❡r t✐♠❡ ❚✿ ❚ < σ ✐ > t = ✶ � σ ✐ ( t ) ❚ t = ✶ ▼❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡♥tr♦♣② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✿ � ◆ ✐ = ✶ ❤ ✐ σ ✐ ❡ ♣ ( { σ } ) = � ◆ ✐ = ✶ ✷ ❝♦s❤ ( ❤ ✐ ) ❚❤✐s ✐s ❛ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥t ♥❡✉r♦♥s ✇✐t❤ ❝♦♥st❛♥t r❛♥❞♦♠ ❛❝t✐✈✐t②✳

❚❤❡ ♣❛✐r✇✐s❡ ♠♦❞❡❧ � ❚ ❆✈❡r❛❣❡ ✜r✐♥❣ r❛t❡s ❢♦r ❡❛❝❤ ♦❢ ◆ ♥❡✉r♦♥s✿ < σ ✐ > t = ✶ t = ✶ σ ✐ ( t ) ❚ � ❚ P❛✐r✇✐s❡ ✭❡q✉❛❧ t✐♠❡✮ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥s✿ < σ ✐ σ ❥ > = ✶ t = ✶ σ ✐ ( t ) σ ❥ ( t ) ❚ ▼❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡♥tr♦♣② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✿ ♣ ( { σ } ) = ✶ � ◆ ✐ = ✶ ❤ ✐ σ ✐ + ✶ � ✐ � = ❥ ❏ ✐❥ σ ✐ σ ❥ ❩ ❡ ✷ � ◆ ✐ = ✶ ❤ ✐ σ ✐ + ✶ � � ✐ � = ❥ ❏ ✐❥ σ ✐ σ ❥ ❩ = ❡ ✷ { σ } ▲❛❣r❛♥❣❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧✐❡rs✱ ❝❤♦s❡♥ s✉❝❤ t❤❛t ❝♦♥str❛✐♥ts ❛r❡ s❛t✐s✜❡❞✿ ❤ ✐ ✿ ❜✐❛s ♦❢ ♥❡✉r♦♥ ✐ ❏ ✐❥ = ❏ ❥✐ ✿ s②♠♠❡tr✐❝ ❝♦✉♣❧✐♥❣ str❡♥❣t❤ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ♥❡✉r♦♥ ✐ ❛♥❞ ❥

■s✐♥❣ ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐♥ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ♣❤②s✐❝s ❚❤✐s ♠♦❞❡❧ ✐s ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t t♦ t❤❡ s♣✐♥ ❣❧❛ss ♠♦❞❡❧ ✇✐t❤ ❍❛♠✐❧t♦♥✐❛♥ ✭❊♥❡r❣②✮✿ ◆ ◆ ◆ ❤ ✐ σ ✐ − ✶ � � � ❍ = − ❏ ✐❥ σ ✐ σ ❥ ✷ ✐ = ✶ ✐ = ✶ ❥ = ✶ σ ✐ ❛r❡ t❤❡ ♠❛❣♥❡t✐❝ ♠♦♠❡♥ts ♦r s♣✐♥s < σ ✐ > ✐s t❤❡ ♠❛❣♥❡t✐s❛t✐♦♥ ❤ ✐ ✐s t❤❡ ❧♦❝❛❧ ✜❡❧❞ ❏ ✐❥ ✐s t❤❡ s②♠♠❡tr✐❝ ❝♦✉♣❧✐♥❣ str❡♥❣t❤ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ s♣✐♥s ▼❛①✐♠✉♠ ❡♥tr♦♣② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥ ✐s t❤❡ ❇♦❧③♠❛♥♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐♦♥✿ ❍ − P ∝ ❡ ❦❇ ❚ ■♥ ♦✉r ▼❛①❊♥t ♠♦❞❡❧s✱ t❤❡ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡ ❚ ✐s ❛❜s♦r❜❡❞ ✐♥t♦ t❤❡ ✜❡❧❞s ❛♥❞ ❝♦✉♣❧✐♥❣s✳