Tom Barrett Head of Hotels & Leisure Savills Ireland - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
tom barrett
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

Tom Barrett Head of Hotels & Leisure Savills Ireland - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 08, 2023 124 likes •400 views

IHF CONFERENCE 2016 Driving Innovation Hotel Industry Performance and Trends Tom Barrett Head of Hotels & Leisure Savills Ireland @SavillsIreland ECONOMIC OVERVIEW ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Recent Years Visitor Global Irish

slide-1
SLIDE 1

IHF CONFERENCE 2016 Driving Innovation

‘Hotel Industry Performance and Trends’

Tom Barrett

Head of Hotels & Leisure Savills Ireland

@SavillsIreland

slide-2
SLIDE 2

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

slide-3
SLIDE 3

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW – Recent Years

Irish GDP Irish Employment Consumer Sentiment Visitor Numbers Global Economy Domestic Travel Euro Occupancy & ADR Transaction Volumes Valuation Multiples

slide-4
SLIDE 4

30 50 70 90 110 130 150

Base = 100 in Q4 2005

Source: ESRI / KBC Bank Ireland

IRISH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 1998 - 2016

2000 2008 = 2001

= 2001

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Clothing Furniture Electrical Clothing Furniture Electrical

Oct-15 Oct-13

Grocery Grocery

Bars Bars

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20 25

  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8

Sales Volume (% y/y) Prices (% y/y)

Source: CSO, Savills Research

RECOVERY IN VOLUME & PRICING

Sweet Spot Recession

slide-6
SLIDE 6

85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120

Index: 2005 = 100 All retail businesses, excluding motor trades - 3 Month Moving Average All retail businesses - 3 Month Moving Average

Source: CSO

IRISH RETAIL SALES – Gap Closing as Capital Expenditure Recovers

slide-7
SLIDE 7

80 90 100 110 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014 Jul-2014 Jan-2015 Jul-2015 Jan-2016

IRISH ENERGY PRICES

UP 28% DOWN 11%

slide-8
SLIDE 8

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW - Now

Stock Market International Debt Availability Oil Price Global Economy Hotel Consolidation Continues Occupancy & ADR Transaction Volumes Valuation Multiples Stablising Visitor Numbers Euro

slide-9
SLIDE 9

STOCK MARKET

slide-10
SLIDE 10

DALATA PLC (2 years)

2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Eur/share

UP 18% UP 30% UP 58% DOWN 17%

slide-11
SLIDE 11

27 32 37 42 47 52

Eur/share

INTERNATIONAL (2 years)

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

$/share

1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000

£/share

3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500

£/share

slide-12
SLIDE 12

IRISH HOTEL TRANSACTIONS

slide-13
SLIDE 13

HOTEL ASSET SALES BY VOLUME & VALUE

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 €0 €200 €400 €600 €800 €1,000 €1,200

Total Sold 2011 Total Sold 2012 Total Sold 2013 Total Sold 2014 Total Sold 2015

Millions Asset Sales Moran Bewleys & Jurys

  • No. of Hotels Sold

Hotels 2011 2012 2015 2013 2014 Inns

slide-14
SLIDE 14

HOTEL TRANSACTIONS – By Value & Buyer Type

Value No of Hotels

Price points

Up to €10m €10m – €40m €40m +

50% 61% 28% 11% 14% 36%

slide-15
SLIDE 15

HOTEL TRANSACTIONS €40M +

No of Hotels Value

50% 11%

John Malone

slide-16
SLIDE 16

HOTEL TRANSACTIONS €10M - €40M

No of Hotels Value

36% 28%

4 10

INDIVIDUAL BUYERS

4 2

slide-17
SLIDE 17

HOTEL TRANSACTIONS €10M - €40M

Dublin x 7

Cork x 3 Galway x 3 Belfast x 3

Fermanagh x 1 Limerick x 1 Kildare x 1 Wexford x 1

slide-18
SLIDE 18

HOTEL TRANSACTIONS UNDER €10M

No of Hotels Value

14% 61%

Hibernian Hotel Kilkenny Metro Hotel Dublin 9 Metropole Hotel Cork Charleville Park Hotel Co Cork South Court Hotel Limerick Gallagher's Hotel Letterkenny

Philip Hotel Holdings Ltd

slide-19
SLIDE 19

HOTEL VALUES – THE RECOVERY

Dublin Hotel 2007 2010 2012 2016 Sales

€10m €6.5m €7.5m €10m

EBITDAR

€3m €1.0m €1.7m €3.5m

Value Multiple

x 20 x 10 x 11 x 15

Value

€60m €10m €19m €52m

Per Bedroom

€340k €60k €110k €300k

These figures are not intended as a formal valuation and should not be relied upon as such. They are given in the course of our property advisory role and do not come within the scope of the valuation and Appraisal Manual issued by the Society of Chartered Surveyors. Savills accepts no liability for work completed.

slide-20
SLIDE 20

HOTEL VALUES – THE RECOVERY

Regional Hotel 2007 2010 2012 2016 Sales

€5m €3.5m €3.8m €4.5m

EBITDAR

€1m €0.3m €0.4m €0.8m

Value Multiple

x 15 x 7 x 9 x 10

Value

€15m €2m €3.5m €8m

Per Bedroom

€150k €20k €35k €80k

These figures are not intended as a formal valuation and should not be relied upon as such. They are given in the course of our property advisory role and do not come within the scope of the valuation and Appraisal Manual issued by the Society of Chartered Surveyors. Savills accepts no liability for work completed.

slide-21
SLIDE 21

HOTEL DEVELOPMENT

slide-22
SLIDE 22

Clarion Sligo €80k Pillo Galway €100k Clarion Hotel €200k+ Oriel House Hotel €100k Clarion IFSC €200k Bewleys Ballsbridge €250k

BUY OR BUILD?

2014 2016 2015 2016 2013 2015

slide-23
SLIDE 23

POTENTIAL NEW HOTEL BEDROOMS BY KEY LOCATIONS

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600

Dublin 1 Dublin 2 Dublin Airport Dublin 8 Cork

  • No. of Beds
slide-24
SLIDE 24

HOTEL BRANDS

slide-25
SLIDE 25

BRANDS IN IRELAND

  • 600
  • 300

300 600 900 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,700 3,000

Regional Dublin

slide-26
SLIDE 26

SAVILLS HOTELS AND LEISURE

  • Acquisitions and Disposals
  • Source local and international Investors or Partners
  • Negotiation of Hotel Leases, Management and Franchise Agreements
  • Development Feasibility
  • Strategic Reviews with appropriate solutions
  • Commercially aware Valuations