to o Pr Predict edict th the e Hit Hits Special thanks to Top - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Di Dicin cing g th the e Da Data ta to

• Pr

Predict edict th the e Hit Hits

Special thanks to

Top

• p fact

ctor

• rs

s by PD y PDs/ s/MDs MDs for

• r addi

dding ng a single ngle

“Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences

• 1. Artist stature/reputation

96% intangible

• 2. Gut feeling

91% intangible

• 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound)

75% intangible

• 4. Sales data

74% research

• 5. Free show for station

72% promo oppt’y

Top

• p fact

ctor

• rs

s by P y PDs/ s/MDs MDs for

• r addi

dding ng a single ngle

“Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences

• 6. Prior single’s performance 71%

airplay

• 7. Local concert appearance 70%

promo oppt’y

• 8. Relationship with artist

69% intangible

• 9. Local callout/research

69% research

• 10. PD word-of-mouth

64% intangible

• 11. Relationship with label

59% intangible

Mod

• der

erat ate e fac actor

• rs

s by PD y PDs/ s/MDs Ds for

• r ad

addi ding ng a sin a single e

(“Very likely” OR OR “somewhat likely” responses)

• 12. Nat’l airplay chart growth 54%

airplay

• 13. Streaming data (overall)

52%

• ther media
• 14. Airplay at specific stations 49%

airplay

• 15. Nat’l airplay chart rank

49% airplay

• 16. Corporate mandate

49% internal

Streaming media aren’t major “add factors” for Country PDs/MDs … yet. et.

“Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” to influence a new airplay:

Streaming media overall 52% 13th of 38 Spotify streams 31% 28th YouTube views/streams 20% 30th Apple streams 20% 32nd Pandora streams 14% 34th

1

Shazam data ranked No. 25 in influence, but it can be predictive.

12 12+ Sh + Shazams azams pe per r Countr

• untry

y sp spin in in in 2nd

nd ch

char art t week eek

1

Average chart peak: 4

• No. 1s

90%

Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed charted singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6% Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17

Sh Shazams azams pe per r Countr

• untry

sp spin in in in 2nd

nd ch

char art t week eek

1

Shazams per spin Average

• Pct. Reaching

(2nd chart week) Chart peak

• No. 1

7.0-11.99 9.0 63% 5.50-6.99 15.5 53%

Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6% Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17

Sh Shazams azams pe per r Countr

• untry

sp spin in in in 2nd

nd ch

char art t week eek

1

Shazams per spin Average

• Pct. Reaching

(2nd chart week) peak #1

4.00-5.49 16.7 25% 2.00-3.99 26.3 18% 0.00-1.99 41.8 0% (of 11)

Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33.

• Avg. peak of 165 completed Shazam-measured singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6%; avg. weeks to No. 1 is 24.0.

Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17.

Week eek 2 Sha hazams/Spin ams/Spin co compared pared to eventua entual l ch char art t peak ak position ition

1

8.03 5.70 5.70 5.06 3.80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

• No. 1 (67)

2 to 10 (15) 11 to 15 (11) 16 to 39 (40) 40 to 50 (32)

Chart week 2: Shazams per spin, August 2015-2017

Higher her Shaz azams ams-per per-spin spin in week ek 2 ca can indicat icate e a f a fas aster er pac ace e to No

• No. 1

1

18.0 22.8 23.6 28.8

5 10 15 20 25 30 35

10.01 or more (14) 7.5-10.0 (14) 6.0-7.49 (17) 0.0-5.99 (22)

Weeks to No. 1 based on Shazams per spin in chart week 2, August 2015-2017

2

Streaming data was No. 13 in influence, but it deserves more attention.

Li List sten ener ers a s are str e strea eami ming ng Cou

• untr

ntry y hit its mo s more tha e than e n ever er

2

All charting singles

• avg. on-demand streams

(2nd chart week)

August 2015-2016

454,882

August 2016-2017

719,197 +58.1%

8/10/15-8/1/16 vs. 8/8/16-8/21/17 Nielsen Music/BDS; Mediabase 2nd chart week

I Ho How w ma many s y str trea eams ms is is a a lot? t? Top

• p-str

streami eaming ng si sing ngles es by f y for

• rma

mat

2

38.3 32.6 24.5 7.4 6.8 5.8

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0

Top 40 R&B/Hip Hop Adult R&B Triple A Mainstream Rock Country

Millions per week, Nielsen Music/BDS 8/27/17

Ra Rank nkin ing g of

• f th

the mo e most st-str strea eame med d Cou

• untr

ntry y si sing ngles es

2

3,676,000 2,314,000 1,664,000 1,357,640 1,169,700 1,012,760 864,300 715,587

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000

1-5 rank 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40

The Most Streamed Country Singles per week, per Nielsen Music/BDS (6/20-8/21/17)

I

Top

• p 10 Countr
• untry

y BD BDS singles gles average rage 2.5 .5 mi mill llion

• n str

tream eams s per er week eek

2

2,573,670 1,822,300 1,241,260 943,300 727,807

500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000

1-10 chart rank 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50

Country streams by Nielsen Music/BDS chart position (7/10-8/21/17)

3

Early streams-per-spin activity is correlated to radio airplay chart outcomes.

I

Str treams eams pe per sp spin n can n be be an ea early ly pr predict edictor r of airp irpla lay y char art t out utcome

• me

3

707 475 433 408

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

• No. 1

singles chart peak 2-15 chart peak 16-30 chart peak 31-50

Chart week 2 Nielsen Music/BDS Country streams per Mediabase spin (169 singles, 8/10/15-8/7/17)

Hi High ea early y str strea eams ms-per er-Countr Country y sp spin in sh show pr w pred edic icti tive e poten enti tial al

3

Streams per spin Average

• Pct. Reaching

(2nd chart week) peak #1

601+ 12.6 56.3% 301-600 15.0 48.0% all singles 18.0 39.6% 0-300 23.7 22.5%

169 Country singles, Nielsen Music/BDS, Mediabase 8/10/15-8/7/17

Str trea eams-per per-spi spin n al also so in indi dica cate th the ai e airpla rplay y pac ace e to No

• No.

. 1

20.7 21.4 23.5 27.5

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

800+ streams/spin 700+ 200-699 0-199

Weeks to No. 1

2nd chart week (Nielsen Music/BDS, Mediabase, 67 No. 1 singles, 8/10/15-8/7/17)

3

4

Pand Pandora

• ra sp

spin in ac activity tivity (# (#34 34) is is pr proving ing to b

• be

e rel relevant ant to o

• out

utcomes comes of

• f Cou
• untr

ntry y si sing ngles. les.

Pan ando dora a is is m mor

• re tha

e than n a m a mon

• nth

th ah ahea ead d of

• f ai

airpl rplay y at at pr proje

• jecti

cting ng Top

• p 10 C

0 Cou

• untr

ntry y rad adio io hit its

Top 10 airplay Pandora first

• Pct. Pandora
• Avg. lead

singles to Top 10 first

• ver radio

52 42 81% 5.1 weeks

• Aug. 8, 2016-August 21, 2017: Pandora, Country Aircheck/Mediabase.

4

5

“Most Added” scored 31st

• ut of 38 factors influencing PDs
• n new adds.

But….

No.

• . 1 M

1 Mos

• st A

t Adde dded d is is a r a rel elia iabl ble e ea early y hit it in indi dica cator

• r

at at Cou

• untr

ntry y rad adio io

Reached No. 1 55.5% Reached Top 15 82.0%

Country Aircheck/Mediabase, August 2006-2017

5

Ou Outc tcom

• mes

es of

• f No.
• . 1

1 Mos

• st-Adde

dded d Cou

• unt

ntry y si sing ngles es

55.5% 67.6% 73.1% 81.7% 86.8% 92.6% 96.4% 98.8%

39.6% 43.4% 49.5% 55.0% 59.3% 65.9% 79.7% 100.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%

• No. 1

Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20 Top 30 Top 40 Top 50

Country Aircheck, Mediabase, August 2006-2017

#1 Most Added All charting singles

5

No

• No. 1 and

nd No. 2 Most-Added dded Cou

• untr

ntry y si singles gles ha have e com

• mpris

prised ed 86 86% of No. 1s s in th the e pa past st 2 yea ears 51 27 10 2 1

10 20 30 40 50 60

• No. 1 Most

Added (56%)

• No. 2 Most

Added (29.7%)

• No. 3 Most

Added (11%)

• No. 4 Most

Added (2.2%)

• No. 5+ Most

Added (1.1%)

5

91 unique No. 1 singles: Country Aircheck/Mediabase, August 3, 2015 to August 21, 2017

I Ou Outc tcom

• mes

es of

• f Mos
• st-Add

dded ed Cou

• untr

ntry y si sing ngles es

5

Among singles that charted:

• Avg. Peak
• No. 1 Most Added*

7.3

• No. 2 Most Added (but not #1)**

16.3

• No. 3 Most Added (but not #1 or 2)***

19.8

• No. 4 Most Added (but not #1, 2 or 3)***

32.8

• No. 5+ Most Added (but not #1, 2, 3 or 4)***

41.1

*Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Aug. 28, 2006-Aug. 21, 2017 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Jan. 17, 2012-Aug. 21, 2017 ***Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Aug. 3, 2015-Aug. 21, 2017

I

A hug uge Mo e Most st Added dded Wee eek k ge generally erally me means ns a ver ery su successfu cessful l Countr untry y si single. gle. 5

• Pct. Reaching #1
• Avg. Peak

60% of reporters 76% 3.5 50% of reporters 70% 3.7 Any No. 1 Most Added single 56% 7.3

Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Any No. 1 Most Added singles from Aug. 28, 2006 through Aug. 21, 2017; 60% based on 31 of 41 singles; 50% based on 16 of 23 singles.

I

Top p 10 Most st Added dded 5+ st straig aight ht wee eeks ks? Usu sually ally me means ns a big g Count untry y hit. t. 5

• Pct. That reach No. 1

71% Average peak 4.6 Any No. 1 Most Added single 56% Average peak 7.3

Country Aircheck/Mediabase: 52 singles ranking among top 10 Most Added for five consecutive weeks, January 2016-August 2017

Ea Early ly signs ns of succe ccess, ss, #1: 1: Jon

• n Par

Pardi: di: Dirt t On On My My Bo Boots ts (C (Capi apitol)

• l)
• Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week:

9.69

• Streams per spin in 2nd chart week:

724.6

• #1 Most Added
• Top 10 on Pandora 5 weeks ahead of monitored airplay

Ea Early ly signs ns of succe ccess, ss, #2: 2: Dan an + Shay: : From m The e Ground und Up Up (W (War arne ner Br Bros.) s.)

• Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week:

16.0

• Streams per spin in 2nd chart week:

1,813.2

• #1 Most Added
• 5 straight weeks among top 10 Most Added

Ea Early ly signs ns of succe ccess, ss, #3: 3: Ol Old Domi minion: nion: Song ng For Another ther Time me (R (RCA) CA)

• Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week:

9.64

• Streams per spin in 2nd chart week:

953.3

• #2 Most Added, top 10 Most Added 6 straight weeks
• Top 10 on Pandora same week as monitored airplay

Sum ummar mary: y: Fi Five data e data fac actor

• rs

wor

• rth

th co cons nsid ider erin ing

High Shazams per spin in 2nd chart week (among the top 50) Streaming rankers make useful benchmarks High streams per spin in 2nd chart week (among the top 50) Pandora as a Top 10 pacesetter #1 or No. 2 Most Added or 5 straight weeks among top 10

1 2 3 4 5

For this deck and more information: Jeff Green Jeff@stonedoormedialab.com 615-406-4567