Di Dicin cing g th the e Da Data ta to o Pr Predict edict th the e Hit Hits Special thanks to
Top op fact ctor ors s by PD y PDs/ s/MDs MDs for or addi dding ng a single ngle “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 1. Artist stature/reputation 96% intangible 2. Gut feeling 91% intangible 3. Playlist fit (tempo, sound) 75% intangible 4. Sales data 74% research 5. Free show for station 72% promo oppt’y
Top op fact ctor ors s by P y PDs/ s/MDs MDs for or addi dding ng a single ngle “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” influences 6. Prior single’s performance 71% airplay 7. Local concert appearance 70% promo oppt’y 8. Relationship with artist 69% intangible 9. Local callout/research 69% research 10. PD word-of-mouth 64% intangible 11. Relationship with label 59% intangible
Mod oder erat ate e fac actor ors s by PD y PDs/ s/MDs Ds for or ad addi ding ng a sin a single e (“Very likely” OR OR “somewhat likely” responses) 12. Nat’l airplay chart growth 54% airplay 13. Streaming data (overall) 52% other media 14. Airplay at specific stations 49% airplay 15. Nat’l airplay chart rank 49% airplay 16. Corporate mandate 49% internal
Streaming media aren’t major “add factors” for Country PDs/MDs … yet. et. “Very likely” OR “somewhat likely” to influence a new airplay: Streaming media overall 52% 13 th of 38 Spotify streams 31% 28 th YouTube views/streams 20% 30 th Apple streams 20% 32 nd Pandora streams 14% 34 th
1 Shazam data ranked No. 25 in influence, but it can be predictive.
12 12+ Sh + Shazams azams pe per r Countr ountry y 1 nd ch sp spin in in in 2 nd char art t week eek Average chart peak: 4 No. 1s 90% Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed charted singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6% Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17
Sh Shazams azams pe per r Countr ountry 1 nd ch spin sp in in in 2 nd char art t week eek Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching (2 nd chart week) Chart peak No. 1 7.0-11.99 9.0 63% 5.50-6.99 15.5 53% Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6% Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17
Shazams Sh azams pe per r Countr ountry 1 nd ch sp spin in in in 2 nd char art t week eek Shazams per spin Average Pct. Reaching (2 nd chart week) peak #1 4.00-5.49 16.7 25% 2.00-3.99 26.3 18% 0.00-1.99 41.8 0% (of 11) Median Shazams per spin in second chart week is 5.61; average is 6.33. Avg. peak of 165 completed Shazam-measured singles is 17.7; avg. pct. reaching No. 1: 40.6%; avg. weeks to No. 1 is 24.0. Shazam data on 207 charting Country singles, includes some still active; Mediabase: 8/3/15 through 8/21/17.
Week eek 2 Sha hazams/Spin ams/Spin co compared pared 1 to eventua entual l ch char art t peak ak position ition 9 8.03 Chart week 2: Shazams per spin, August 2015-2017 8 7 5.70 5.70 6 5.06 5 3.80 4 3 2 1 0 No. 1 (67) 2 to 10 (15) 11 to 15 (11) 16 to 39 (40) 40 to 50 (32)
Higher her Shaz azams ams-per per-spin spin in week ek 2 can indicat ca icate e a f a fas aster er pac ace e to No No. 1 1 Weeks to No. 1 based on Shazams per spin in chart week 2, August 2015-2017 35 28.8 30 23.6 22.8 25 18.0 20 15 10 5 0 10.01 or more (14) 7.5-10.0 (14) 6.0-7.49 (17) 0.0-5.99 (22)
2 Streaming data was No. 13 in influence, but it deserves more attention.
List Li sten ener ers a s are str e strea eami ming ng 2 Cou ountr ntry y hit its mo s more tha e than e n ever er All charting singles avg. on-demand streams (2 nd chart week) 454,882 August 2015-2016 719,197 +58.1% August 2016-2017 8/10/15-8/1/16 vs. 8/8/16-8/21/17 Nielsen Music/BDS; Mediabase 2 nd chart week
I Ho How w ma many s y str trea eams ms is is a a lot? t? 2 Top op-str streami eaming ng si sing ngles es by f y for orma mat 45.0 38.3 40.0 Millions per week, Nielsen Music/BDS 8/27/17 32.6 35.0 30.0 24.5 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 7.4 6.8 5.8 5.0 0.0 Top 40 R&B/Hip Hop Adult R&B Triple A Mainstream Rock Country
Ra Rank nkin ing g of of th the mo e most st-str strea eame med d 2 Cou ountr ntry y si sing ngles es The Most Streamed Country Singles per week, per Nielsen Music/BDS (6/20-8/21/17) 3,676,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,314,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,664,000 1,357,640 1,500,000 1,169,700 1,012,760 864,300 1,000,000 715,587 500,000 0 1-5 rank 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40
I Top op 10 Countr ountry y BD BDS singles gles average rage 2 2.5 .5 mi mill llion on str tream eams s per er week eek Country streams by Nielsen Music/BDS chart position (7/10-8/21/17) 3,000,000 2,573,670 2,500,000 1,822,300 2,000,000 1,241,260 1,500,000 943,300 727,807 1,000,000 500,000 0 1-10 chart rank 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50
3 Early streams-per-spin activity is correlated to radio airplay chart outcomes.
I Str treams eams pe per sp spin n can n be be an ea early ly 3 pr predict edictor r of airp irpla lay y char art t out utcome ome Chart week 2 Nielsen Music/BDS Country streams per Mediabase spin (169 singles, 8/10/15-8/7/17) 800 707 700 600 475 500 433 408 400 300 200 100 0 No. 1 chart peak chart peak chart peak singles 2-15 16-30 31-50
Hi High ea early y str strea eams ms-per er-Countr Country y 3 spin sp in sh show pr w pred edic icti tive e poten enti tial al Streams per spin Average Pct. Reaching (2 nd chart week) peak #1 601+ 12.6 56.3% 301-600 15.0 48.0% all singles 18.0 39.6% 0-300 23.7 22.5% 169 Country singles, Nielsen Music/BDS, Mediabase 8/10/15-8/7/17
Str trea eams-per per-spi spin n al also so in indi dica cate th the ai e airpla rplay y pac ace e to No o No. . 1 3 Weeks to No. 1 2 nd chart week (Nielsen Music/BDS, Mediabase, 67 No. 1 singles, 8/10/15-8/7/17) 27.5 30.0 23.5 25.0 21.4 20.7 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 800+ streams/spin 700+ 200-699 0-199
4 Pand Pandora ora sp spin in ac activity tivity (# (#34 34) is is pr proving ing to b o be e rel relevant ant to o o out utcomes comes of of Cou ountr ntry y si sing ngles. les.
Pan ando dora a is is m mor ore tha e than n a m a mon onth th 4 ahea ah ead d of of ai airpl rplay y at at pr proje ojecti cting ng Top op 10 C 0 Cou ountr ntry y rad adio io hit its Top 10 airplay Pandora first Pct. Pandora Avg. lead singles to Top 10 first over radio 52 42 81% 5.1 weeks Aug. 8, 2016-August 21, 2017: Pandora, Country Aircheck/Mediabase.
5 “Most Added” scored 31st out of 38 factors influencing PDs on new adds. But….
No. o. 1 M 1 Mos ost A t Adde dded d is is 5 a r a rel elia iabl ble e ea early y hit it in indi dica cator or at Cou at ountr ntry y rad adio io Reached No. 1 55.5% Reached Top 15 82.0% Country Aircheck/Mediabase, August 2006-2017
Ou Outc tcom omes es of of No. o. 1 1 Mos ost-Adde dded d Cou ount ntry y si sing ngles es 5 120.0% Country Aircheck, Mediabase, August 2006-2017 98.8% 100.0% 96.4% 92.6% 100.0% 86.8% 81.7% 79.7% 73.1% 80.0% 67.6% 65.9% 59.3% 55.5% 55.0% 60.0% 49.5% 43.4% 39.6% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% No. 1 Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20 Top 30 Top 40 Top 50 #1 Most Added All charting singles
No No. 1 and nd No. 2 Most-Added dded Cou ountr ntry y si singles gles ha have e com ompris prised ed 5 86 86% of No. 1s s in th the e pa past st 2 yea ears 60 51 50 40 27 30 20 10 2 1 10 0 No. 1 Most No. 2 Most No. 3 Most No. 4 Most No. 5+ Most Added (56%) Added (29.7%) Added (11%) Added (2.2%) Added (1.1%) 91 unique No. 1 singles: Country Aircheck/Mediabase, August 3, 2015 to August 21, 2017
I Ou Outc tcom omes es of of Mos ost-Add dded ed 5 Cou ountr ntry y si sing ngles es Among singles that charted: Avg. Peak No. 1 Most Added* 7.3 No. 2 Most Added (but not #1) ** 16.3 No. 3 Most Added (but not #1 or 2) *** 19.8 No. 4 Most Added (but not #1, 2 or 3) *** 32.8 No. 5+ Most Added (but not #1, 2, 3 or 4) *** 41.1 *Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Aug. 28, 2006-Aug. 21, 2017 **Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Jan. 17, 2012-Aug. 21, 2017 ***Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Unique charting singles from Aug. 3, 2015-Aug. 21, 2017
I A hug uge Mo e Most st Added dded Wee eek k ge generally erally me means ns a ver ery 5 su successfu cessful l Countr untry y si single. gle. Pct. Reaching #1 Avg. Peak 60% of reporters 76% 3.5 50% of reporters 70% 3.7 Any No. 1 Most Added single 56% 7.3 Country Aircheck/Mediabase: Any No. 1 Most Added singles from Aug. 28, 2006 through Aug. 21, 2017; 60% based on 31 of 41 singles; 50% based on 16 of 23 singles.
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