ASEAN Academic Networking in Water, Disaster Management and Climate Change HYDROCLIMATE PROJECTIONS TO ENGINEERING PRACTICES FOR ADAPTATION MEASURES IN WATER RESOURCES SECTOR Research Centre for Water Resources and Climate Change National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment 28 January 2015 Bangkok, Thailand
OUTLINE WATER MANAGEMENT ISSUES & 1 CHALLENGE LINKAGES OF CLIMATE & NON- 2 CLIMATE FORCING KNOWLEDGE PATHWAYS TO 3 ENGINEERING PRACTICES KNOWLEDGE PATHWAYS TO 4 ADAPTATION POLICIES 2
Thailand Floods, Jul 2011-Jan 2012.. Thailand’s worst flooding in 50 years.. Estimated economic loss > USD45 billion.. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) 13.6 million affected.. >800 deaths.. 3
Jakarta Floods, Jan 2013.. Estimated economic losses USD3.3billion... 320,000 people displaced.. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) >40 deaths.. 4
Typhoon Haiyan, Philippines, Nov 8 2013.. 4.1 million without homes.. 5.9 million workers lost income sources.. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) 1,785 missing.. 6,200 deaths.. 5
Pakistan Floods, Sept 2014.. Worst flood in Pakistan history.. 2.5 million affected.. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) 367 deaths.. 6
Mudflood in Cameron Highland, Malaysia Oct 23, 2013 & Nov 5, 2014.. Dam release due to heavy downpour & upstream flooding.. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) > 80 houses destroyed.. 6 deaths.. 7
Kelantan Floods, Malaysia Dec 14-24, 2014.. Continuous heavy downpour & upstream flooding.. > many properties & infrastructures Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) destroyed.. 25 deaths.. 8
……water management issues…. water excesses, water shortages, water pollution ..due to non-climatic & climatic forcing… 9
….be more complicated in water sector due to.….. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) a changing climate leads to change in extreme weather and climate events would contribute to water related disaster (water excess) 10
Water managers & climate change two major challenges in a changing climate: How to integrate & coordinate issues of non-climatic and climatic forcing How to build resilience or adapt to climate change impacts Acting with the knowledge of climate change scientific findings which are Uncertainty over timing, nature, magnitude of change Costs and benefits difficult to calculate 11
…..linkages of climate & non - climate forcing….. 12
NON-CLIMATIC CLIMATIC FORCING IMPACTS FORCING (Temperature, Wind, Pressure, Radiation, Rainfall ) Rapid increase Increased in basin frequency of population floods CLIMATE VARIABILITY Increased catchment Intensive land erosion & development siltation Increased EXCESS EXTREME frequency of WATER Rapid loss of WATER HIGH droughts (limited OR forests BALANCE OR water resources / LESS LOW supply) WATER Increased pollution and Threat to deterioration of biodiversity CLIMATE river water quality CHANGE Inadequate CHALLENGE: Threats to environmental riparian lands INTEGRATE flows & COORDINATE 13
…..and increasing exposure of people and assets would be the major cause of changes in disaster losses….. Source: SREX Report (IPCC, 2011) …..but how we can “cushion” this impacts (climate and non-climate forcing)...? 14
…..through mitigation & adaptation processes Greenhouse gas Primarily a local concentration issue as adaptation mostly provides benefits at the local scale Climate change Adaptation can have a short-term effect impacts on the reduction of vulnerability Adaptation is a responses priority in the water sectors as well as in health and coastal sectors adaptation mitigation Intervention to an adjustment in reduce the natural or human WHY emmision system systems in sources response to actual or ADAPTATION? expected climatic stimuli or their effects 15
ADAPTATION & VULNERABILITY IMPACT ASSESSMENT Emissions scenarios pro-active adaptive reduce greenhouse population growth management – 2 MITIGATION ACTIONS gas emissions water infra with Socio-economic factors buffering capacity, robustness & resilience to climate ADAPTATION ACTIONS scenario selection change & variability GCM Projections Air temperature Impacts & vulnerability reduce Communication to 3 assessment vulnerability of policy makers Precipitation pattern systems Water supply, floods, Atmospheric dynamics & ecosystem, feedbacks infrastructure, road, etc spatial downscaling climatic Expected System Impacts Adaptation options & influence measures 6 Physical Systems Regional Projection of Climate Change Human Systems 4 Air temperature CLIMATIC DRIVEN Precipitation pattern FACTOR Research to Continued improve monitoring predictions atmospheric forcing hydrologic influence Observations Potential Hydrologic Climatic trends Responses 1 5 NON-CLIMATIC Hydrologic trends Watershed scale dynamics DRIVEN FACTOR System (s) trends
….pathways of engineering practices and adaptation processes…… 17
…..how it can be done? …develop climate knowledge base & bridge the gap of science, engineering & socio- economics …… …..pathways from knowledge to adaptation practices…… Source: X. Wang, CSIRO 2012 PRACTICES DEVELOPMENT 18
….develop climate change knowledge & capacity building……. 19
…pre -requisite to have knowledge in climate change modeling and projection….. Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regimes and Water Resources for Peninsular Malaysia (NAHRIM, 2006) Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regimes, Water Resources and Landuse Change for Sabah & Sarawak (NAHRIM, 2010) Climate Projection Downscaling for Malaysia Using Hadley Centre PRECIS Model (NAHRIM,2010) Impacts of Sea Level Rise (SLR) for Malaysia (NAHRIM, 2010) Extension of the Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia (NAHRIM, 2014)
FUTURE HYDRO-CLIMATE DATA BASE Type of Projected Hydroclimate Data Data Mode of Temp. Rainfall Flow Runoff Evapo- Soil Resolution Data type transpiration Water Storage Daily Total …..water resources -supply Mean Monthly availability & drought Minimum Maximum assessment… Total Anually Mean 1-day 2-day …..floods assessment, planning 3-day Maximum and design…. 5-day 7-day http:www.futurehydroclimate.nahrim.gov.my 21
…revisit climate change modeling and projection for Peninsular Malaysia….. 2006 - Downscaling Canadian GCM1 (~ 410km resolution), to fine spatial resolution (~9km) Extention study : 3 GCMs – MPI-ECHAM5, CCSM3 and MRI-CGCM2.3.2 15 scenarios – SRES A1B (5), 18km x 18km B1 (5), A2 (1) and A1Fi (1) Downscaling GCMs (~150- 310km) to watershed scale spatial resolution of 6km Hourly time interval resolution Completed in July 2014) 6km x 6km 22
….climate change in Malaysia…. 3000 2500 2000 WET 1500 1980 2010 2040 2070 2100 10-yr Avg. 10-yr Avg. 10-yr Avg. (1970 – 1980) (1980 – 1990) (1990 – 2000) 23
…impacts assessment for 11 watersheds & 12 coastal regions….. 24
Projected High and Low Flows by 2100 – Peninsular Malaysia (NAHRIM, 2014) Kelantan Low Flow (m 3 /s) WATER SUPPLY & FLOOD Muda Watershed 2010-2100 1970-2000* Rate of change WATER SUPPLY Muda 7.5 14.5 -48% & FLOOD Selangor 117.7 12.2 -4% Kelantan 52.3 92.7 -44% Pahang 27.2 53.6 -49% Johor 25.3 32.9 -23% Perak Dungun Linggi 1.0 2.6 -62% FLOOD FLOOD High Flow (m 3 /s) Pahang Watershed 2010-2100 1970-2000* Rate of Selangor WATER SUPPLY & Change FLOOD WATER SUPPLY Muda 2702 509 +430% & FLOOD Perak 9937 2658 +274% Selangor 1195 583 +108% Klang Klang 319 148 +115% FLOOD Kelantan 10115 40875 +147% Johor Dungun 671 414.9 +62% Linggi WATER Pahang 4561 2748 +66% WATER SUPPLY SUPPLY Muar 2630 401 +556% Muar Batu Pahat 283.2 101 +180% FLOOD Batu Pahat FLOOD Note: 1970-2000* - simulated historical period
Projected High and Low Flows by 2100 – Sabah & Sarawak KEDAMAIAN (WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS) 2040-2050 2090-2100 Low Flow(m3/s) 1.75/(3.40) 3.18/(3.40) High Flow(m3/s) 218.9/(100.8) 148.4/(100.80) * (3.40) simulated historical period 1980-2000 WATER SUPPLY WATER SUPPLY May be some & FLOODS potential water supply problems in the future at Sabah, specifically at Kinabatangan, WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS Padas and FLOODS Kadamaian river basins, WATER SUPPLY May be significant flooding FLOODS problems throughout FLOODS WATER SUPPLY Sabah and & FLOODS Sarawak during the 21st century. SARAWAK R. (FLOODS) 2040-2050 2090-2100 Low Flow(m3/s) 2.91/(4.05) 6.16/(4.05) High Flow(m3/s) 89.42/(98.42) 133.91/(98.42)
….develop climate change engineering knowledge, methodology & design standards……. 27
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