SLIDE 1 Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex and Ethnic Group: Estimation and Analysis
Nik Lomax, Phil Rees and John Stillwell n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk
International Conference on Population Geographies The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia 30 June to 3 July 2015
School of Geography
FACULTY OF ENVIRONMENT
SLIDE 2 Outline
- 1. Ethnic diversity in the UK
- 2. Ethnic group population projections –
ETHPOP
- 3. Internal migration component methodology
- 4. Interaction patterns
SLIDE 3
2001 2011
SLIDE 4 2011
Rather than “Diversity Explosion” as seen in the USA (Frey 2015), are we seeing “Diversity Diffusion”?
Note: Index of Diversity = 1 - ere
2 where re =
proportion of the population in ethnic group e
SLIDE 5 Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP
- Our overall aim is to understand and to
forecast the ethnic transition of the United Kingdom’s population
- This is important for monitoring ethnic
advantage / disadvantage & segregation
- The team are Phil Rees (PI), Paul Norman, Pia
Wohland, Nik Lomax & Stephen Clark
SLIDE 6 Evaluation, Revision and Extension of Ethnic Population Projections - ETHPOP
- The migration component requires input
time-series data of migration of ethnic group populations
- Moving to a multi-regional model over a bi-
regional model
- Experimenting with probabilistic estimates
which require good time-series estimates
SLIDE 7 ETHPOP specification
Features Old ETHPOP (2007-2010) New ETHPOP Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI (355 zones) LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 404 zones) Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Ages 0 to 100+ (SYA) 0 to 100+ (SYA) Sexes Females, Males Females, Males Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Sub-populations 355 × 16 = 5,680 populations 404 × 12 × 2 = 9,696 populations
SLIDE 8 ETHPOP specification
Features Old ETHPOP (2007-2010) New ETHPOP Zones LADs in England + WA, SC, NI (355 zones) LADs in UK (324 England, 22 Wales, 32 Scotland, 11 Northern Ireland = 404 zones) Ethnic groups 16 (2001 Census) England 12 (2001-2011 Censuses) UK Ages 0 to 100+ (SYA) 0 to 100+ (SYA) Sexes Females, Males Females, Males Country of Birth Not used Born in UK, Born Outside UK Time series of estimates 2001-2006 2001-2011-2014 Sub-populations 355 × 16 = 5,680 populations 404 × 12 × 2 = 9,696 populations
SLIDE 9 Previous ETHPOP project: 2007-10
Other Ethnic White & Black African, Other Mixed White Other White & Asian Chinese Black African White & Black Caribbean, Other Asian Pakistani Other Black Indian, Bangladeshi Black Caribbean White Irish White British
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1 2 3 4 5 6 Years Relative change compared to 2001 Broad ethnic groups White Mixed Asian Black Others
SLIDE 10 2051
2001 2011 Projected 2031
SLIDE 11
Levels of migration
(Migrants aged over 1)
2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3
SLIDE 12 Levels of migration
(Migrants aged over 1)
2001 2011 Change % Change Inter-LAD 2,616,807 2,768,632 151,825 5.8 Intra-LAD 3,883,547 4,046,769 163,222 4.2 Immigrants 429,546 687,174 257,628 60.0 Total 6,929,900 7,502,575 572,675 8.3
There is a negative correlation between immigration and net out-migration of the 404 Local Authority Districts for each year of the time series: r = -0.67 in 2001/02, r = -0.74 in 2006/07 and r = -0.66 in 2010/11, all p<0.01.
SLIDE 13 Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
White Multiple ethnic group Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Other Asian Black Other Ethnic Group
Migration per 1,000 people Source: 2011 Census
SLIDE 14 Chinese and Pakistani migration at age 16 to 24
Chinese 16-24 Pakistani 16-24
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Pakistani Chinese
SLIDE 15
Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity
SLIDE 16 Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity
Adapted from Rees and Willekens 1986
SLIDE 17
SLIDE 18
SLIDE 19
SLIDE 20
Model Input: Origin-Destination-Age- Sex-Ethnicity
SLIDE 21 Combining data and estimating gaps
- Iterative Proportional Fitting
SLIDE 22 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
20to24 65to74 75plus
Migration per 1,000: Relative to mid-2002
SLIDE 23 Urban – Rural Patterns
Dense to Sparse Dense to Dense Sparse to Sparse Sparse to Dense
WBI WHO CHI BLA BLC IND
SLIDE 24 Dense to Dense Sparse to Dense Sparse to Sparse Dense to Sparse
Urban – Rural Patterns
Dense to Dense Sparse to Dense Sparse to Sparse Dense to Sparse
16 to 24 65 Plus
SLIDE 25 Age 65+ in 2011
See Abel and Sander (2014)
SLIDE 26
Ethnic Concentration
Chinese Black African Indian
SLIDE 27 Conclusions
- Ethnic diversity in the UK has increased between
2001 and 2011 and is projected to increase further
- Internal migration patterns by ethnic group an
important component of population change
– Age structure and migration rates vary by group
- Need to get this right for our projection models
- Further estimation required for the full Origin-
Destination-Age-Sex-Ethnicity array
- Full ODAS array allows us to experiment with
multi-regional projection model
SLIDE 28
Time Series of Internal Migration in the United Kingdom by Age, Sex and Ethnic Group: Estimation and Analysis
Poster Session tomorrow: Ethnic population projections for the UK and local areas, 2011-2101: a second chance to get them right
More information about
Nik Lomax, Phil Rees and John Stillwell n.m.lomax@leeds.ac.uk www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/n.lomax
SLIDE 29 References
- Abel & Sander (2014). Quantifying Global International Migration
- Flows. Science, 343 (6178)
- Frey, B (2015) Diversity explosion: How new racial demographics are
remaking America. Washington: The Brookings Institution
- Lomax, N., Norman, P., Rees, P. and Stillwell, J. (2013) Subnational
migration in the United Kingdom: producing a consistent time series using a combination of available data and estimates. Journal of Population Research 30(3): 265-288. DOI 10.1007/s12546-013- 9115-z.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs12546-013- 9115-z
- Rees, P. and Willekens, F. (1986) Data and accounts. In Rogers, A.
and Willekens, F., eds. Migration and settlement: A multiregional comparative study. Dordrecht: Reidel, pp.19-58.
