TII National Roads Conference 2019 Update to TII Cost Management - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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TII National Roads Conference 2019 Update to TII Cost Management - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 01, 2023 30 likes •270 views

TII National Roads Conference 2019 Update to TII Cost Management Procedures 27/09/19 CHANGES TO COST MANAGEMENT MANUAL 1.ESTIMATING PROCESS 2.GENERAL UPDATE 3.REFERENCE CLASS FORECASTING ESTIMATING PROCESS CHANGES TO ESTIMATING PROCESS

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27/09/19

TII National Roads Conference 2019

Update to TII Cost Management Procedures

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CHANGES TO COST MANAGEMENT MANUAL 1.ESTIMATING PROCESS 2.GENERAL UPDATE 3.REFERENCE CLASS FORECASTING

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ESTIMATING PROCESS

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CHANGES TO ESTIMATING PROCESS 1.ESTIMATE SUMMARY BACKUP SHEET 2.ESTIMATE PREPARATION CHECKLIST 3.BACKUP TRACKER SHEET 4.ESTIMATE TRACKER SHEET

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GENERAL UPDATE

  • 1. CHANGE CONTROL REVISIONS
  • MOVE TO THRESHOLD BASED SYSTEM
  • ACCOMPANYING TII SOFTWARE
  • 2. UPDATE FRAMEWORK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
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27/09/19

TII National Roads Conference 2019

Update to TII Cost Management Procedures - Reference Class Forecasting

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Reference Class Forecasting – what is it?

  • Methodology for forecasting future overruns on projects using

data from previously completed projects

  • Builds on existing TII procedures for cost estimation
  • Removes ‘Optimism Bias’, uses outside view
  • Incorporates ‘unknown unknowns’
  • Does NOT replace the need for accurate and comprehensive base cost

estimates

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Reference Class Forecasting – Why use it?

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Reference Class Forecasting – How does it work?

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Reference Class Forecasting – How does it work?

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How is RCF applied to TII Projects?

Base Cost Estimate QRA Target Cost (a) RCF Target Cost (b) Expert Judgement Target Cost

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  • Reference Class of over

120 National Road projects identified

  • Cost & Schedule data

gathered at pre CPO (TC1), Pre Tender (TC2), pre Award (TC3) and Outturn

  • Initial Analysis

complete

Work Done to Date

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  • Reference Class of over

120 National Road projects identified

  • Cost & Schedule data

gathered at pre CPO (TC1), Pre Tender (TC2), pre Award (TC3) and Outturn

  • Initial Analysis

complete

Work Done to Date

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  • Reference Class Charts to be

finalised

  • Reference Class Forecasting

Publication to be finalised and published

  • Cost Management Manual

update including Reference Class Forecasting to be published

Future Work