South Sudan Voices from an Emerging Democracy AAPOR Paper - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

South Sudan

Voices from an Emerging Democracy

AAPOR Paper Presentation May 2012

Methodology Overview

• Face to Face Interviewing
• Field Period: November 7 – December 7, 2011
• Target Population: Urban South Sudanese, 18+
• Sampling: 5 key cities in South Sudan, total n=1,050

– Juba (260 interviews) – Malakal (235 interviews) – Rumbek (235 interviews) – Yambio (160 interviews) – Wau (160 interviews)

• Respondents were selected using a multi-stage random sample, from PSU selection

(random draw selection of sampling points within Bomas throughout each city), to household selection (random route) and respondent selection (Kish grid).

• Margin of sampling error, assuming a simple random sample with p=0.5, final n=975 and a

95% confidence interval, is +/-3.14.

• These data were weighted using city and gender population estimates from the “5th Sudan

Population & Housing Census – 2008”; these post-stratification weights adjust the disproportionate sample allocation to match the final sample to the aforementioned population figures for analysis.

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July 9, 2011 – South Sudan Independence

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November 7 – December 7, 2011

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Overview of Findings

• Optimism about the future of the country consistently shows throughout the results
• With the field period coming 4 months after independence (July 9, 2011), urban respondents

were likely experiencing a ‘honeymoon period’ with regard to perceptions of their newly independent government

• The period between independence through the end of 2011 was relatively calm with few

reports of conflict between Sudan and South Sudan

• Attitudes, especially with regard to security and violence, have likely changed over the past

6 months with wide reports of violence, especially in South Kordufan, Unity State, Blue Nile and Jonglei

• Attitudes toward the United States are consistently positive while attitudes toward other

current economic and security partners, most notably China, remain far more mixed

• Hydrocarbon policy, at the center of much of the violence, remains a difficult issue; most

respondents prefer a solution favoring autonomy even though that solution is estimated to be at least 15 years out and no progress has been made toward that goal to date

• Research in post-conflict zones is challenging; challenges will be discussed at the end

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General Satisfaction

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• Results are likely an effect of a “honeymoon period” after independence
• Uncertainty is also high with 1/3 giving a neutral or non-response
• Optimism about the future is very high among urban South Sudanese

45% 21% 23% 11% Chart 1.1: 'Do you think that things in our country are generally headed in the right direction or are things headed in the wrong direction?' Right direction Neither Right nor Wrong Wrong direction DK / Ref

General Satisfaction

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• Education (31%), inflation (27%) and health care (26%) follow closely behind
• Notably, HIV/AIDS (11%) and terrorism (3%) were lower than might be expected
• Unemployment was cited by 37% of respondents out of two possible mentions

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Chart 1.2: 'What is the most important problem people are facing in South Sudan today?' (Two possible mentions)

General Satisfaction

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• Unemployment remains a major concern
• Islamic extremism is not as likely to be perceived as a problem
• When asked about specific issues, HIV/AIDS considered the biggest problem

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% HIV / AIDS Unemployment East African Drought Islamic Extremists

Chart 1.3: 'Please tell me if this issue is a big problem, a minor problem, or not a problem at all in South Sudan...'

Ref/DK Not a probllem at all Minor problem Big problem

General Satisfaction

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• Least satisfied with cooking fuel and electricity
• Interesting dichotomy where food and phones rely on fuel and electricity
• Urban respondents were most satisfied with food and mobile phone service

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Food Mobile Phone Service Clean, Safe Drinking Water Adequate Shelter Education / Schools Health Care Cooking Fuel Electricity

Chart 1.4: 'How satisfied are you with your ability tot get the following goods

• r services for you and your family?'

Ref/DK Very Dissatisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat satisfied Very Satisfied

General Satisfaction

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• This increased post independence to a point where nearly all want to remain
• This finding underscores the optimism and potential ‘honeymoon’ period
• Most respondents wanted to stay in South Sudan prior to independence

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Before Independence After Independence Chart 1.5: Desire to Relocate Want to Relocate Want to Stay in South Sudan

Government Confidence

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• Ability to combat HIV/AIDS and corruption is significantly more suspect
• Inability to deal with corruption could bring an end to the ‘honeymoon period’
• Extremely high optimism around national defense

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Defending Our Country Providing Healthcare Providing Basic Services Controlling Inflation Creating More Jobs HIV/AIDS Combating Economic Corruption

Chart 3.1: How successful do you think the South Sudanese government will be in dealing with...?

Ref/DK Very Unsuccessful Somewhat Unseccessful Somewhat successful Very successful

Government Confidence

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• Favorability of both national and local government is similarly high
• Not surprisingly, Bashir and Ahmed are viewed very negatively
• Most visible politicians within South Sudan enjoy extremely high favorability

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% President Salva Kir Mayardit

• Leg. Speaker

James Wani Igga VP Riek Machar South Sudan Government Local Government Kenya President Mwai Kibaki Somali President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed Sudan President Omar Al- Bashir

Chart 3.2: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of…?

Ref/DK Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Somewhat favorable Very favorable

Government Confidence

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• Courts and media both measure slightly lower but still show strong confidence
• Perceptions of corruption could quickly erode these high levels of trust
• Trust is similarly high for most government and non-government institutions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Military Police Local Gov Natn'l Gov Courts

Chart 3.3: Trust in South Sudanese Gov't Institutions

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Intn'l Aid Orgs NGOs Media Outlets

Chart 3.4: Trust in South Sudanese Non Gov't Institutions

Ref/DK Not at all trustworthy Not very trustworthy Somewhat trustworthy Very trustworthy

Government Confidence

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• However, perceptions of corruption and foreign influence are prevalent as well
• Inability to change perception of corruption could quickly erode overall confidence
• High optimism in representativeness of government and ability to defend

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Represents the people

• f South Sudan

Can protect people of South Sudan Is corrupt Is influenced by foreign groups or countries

Chart 3.4: How strongly do you agree that the government of South Sudan:

Ref/DK Too soon to say Strongly disagree Somewhat disagree Somewhat agree Strongly agree

Security and Violence

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• Data preceded recent outbreaks of violence which have likely altered perceptions
• This is a positive starting point for a new country with a long history of violence
• Confidence in defense has led to a feeling of local security

31% 39% 13% 15% 3%

Chart 5.1: How would you rate the level of security in your neighborhood?

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Ref/DK

Security and Violence

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• 57% believe it will continue to improve over next 6 months, though uncertainly also

grew as non-response went from 5% to 19%

• Recent violence would indicate that early optimism may not have come to fruition
• Nearly half believe local security has improved over past 6 months

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Last 6 months Next 6 months

Chart 5.2: Do you believe the level of security in your neighborhod has / will…

Ref / DK Gotten / will get worse Stayed / will stay the same Gotten / will get better

Foreign Influences

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• Possibility of a new war seems to have justified these early fears
• Public perceptions of fear could fuel the recent conflicts over borders and oil
• Sudan overwhelmingly acknowledged as the greatest threat

83% 2% 3% 1% 1% 3% 8%

Chart 6.1: Which country currently poses the greatest threat to South Sudan?

Nothern Sudan Somali Uganda Kenya Ethiopia Other Ref/DK

Foreign Influence

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• China has more UN troops than the US, but only 1% view them as preferred partner
• Indicates that if war breaks out, South Sudanese will look to the US for assistance
• Despite a lack of past military support, US perceived as greatest desired ally

49% 4% 1% 22% 5% 4% 3% 4% 6%

Chart 6.2: Which foreign country would you most want international aid or help from to help fight against violence or instability in South Sudan?

USA UK / Britain China Other African Countries Israel European Union United Nations Other DK / Ref

Foreign Influence

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• African and European Unions are also viewed favorably
• Solutions to conflict brokered by the Arab league may not be accepted as readily
• UN viewed most favorably among international organizations

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

United Nations African Union European Union Arab League

Chart 6.3: Farovibility of global organizations

Ref/DK Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Somewhat favorable Very favorable

Hydrocarbon Policy

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• A majority (62%) would like a new pipeline built through Kenya
• The preferred solution is estimated to take 15 or more years, so an intermediate

solution needs to be found and public support needs to be fostered

• Few (17%) respondents prefer continuing partnership with Sudan on oil

17% 62% 11% 5% 5%

Chart 4.4: Best option for South Sudan to export oil

Use existing pipelines through Sudan Build a new pipeline through Kenya Partner with Uganda to build a shared pipeline Other DK

Field Challenges

• Very few research resources are available in South Sudan currently
• Teams in each city had to be recruited from universities and local

contacts then trained for 2 days and monitored closely and retrained when necessary throughout the field period

• Lack of reliable, current population statistics and detailed city maps

created significant challenges in sampling and fielding

• Large number of local languages and dialects also created a unique

challenge – Most surveys were able to be fully conducted in Arabic or English – Respondents in villages around cities needed additional explanation in other languages

• Although it proved labor intensive, the field teams were able to deliver

reliable data within the urban areas sampled

• Capturing a representative, national sample for future research will

require a significant allocation of resources to build up rural research capabilities

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For Further Information

Please contact: D3 Systems, Inc. 703.388.2450 www.d3systems.com Brian M. Kirchhoff Brian.Kirchhoff@D3Systems.com Matthew Warshaw Matthew.Warshaw@D3Systems.com

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