The World Banks Comparative Advantage Given its experience in all - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Policy Research at the World Bank Jean-Jacques Dethier, Research Manager, Development Economics The World Bank National Science Foundation International Workshop in STEM Graduate Education to Develop a Research Agenda, Holiday Inn, Arlington
Jean-Jacques Dethier, Research Manager, Development Economics The World Bank National Science Foundation
International Workshop in STEM Graduate Education to Develop a Research Agenda, Holiday Inn, Arlington VA, February 6-7, 2011
The World Bank’s Comparative Advantage
Given its experience in all developing countries (and access to
governments), the World Bank produces * knowledge in many areas of development policy such as macroeconomic policy; health; education; social policy; poverty alleviation; infrastructure; environment; etc * high quality, rigorous empirical research * development data * surveys and analytical tools The Bank also acts as a catalyst for new ideas, advocates certain ideas on development and influence development debates because of the quality, diversity and relevance of its knowledge.
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Changing Landscape for Knowledge
lending commitments of $72 billion, and in 2009, 59 billion.
Southern cone of Latin Am, Eastern Europe and South East Asia
what World Bank staff call “non-lending services”.
challenge if the World Bank wants to maintain its technical and competitive edge
NGOs (Oxfam); donors (Gates Foundation) and academia
faster – i.e. internet, Google, etc
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MAKE winners and the World Bank — Are we loosing our technical edge…..?
public sector organization to win the award
Other Winners (frequency)
MAKE stands for Most Admired Knowledge Enterprise 2010 data
The World Bank spent US$ 614 million
client countries
followed by East Asia (12%), and Europe/Central Asia (9%)
development; poverty reduction and economics; human development; finance & private sector development)
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Spending on knowledge products increased between 2008 and 2010
2008 and 2010
– Knowledge for clients increased 23% – Knowledge as public good increased 21% – Knowledge for internal use increased 8%
most for East Asia (27%), South Asia (25%) and Africa (23%)
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What our clients want from us
From client satisfaction surveys, we know that they want Dialogue on policy and institutional issues, based on informed experiences and best practices from across the world, led by seasoned professionals Just-in-time advice on policy reforms and their implementation ( how- to) customizing solutions to specific country / context Ready access to knowledge and sharing experiences on key topics under debate from across the globe Connections to policy reformers, development practitioners, and researchers with in-depth familiarity on the topic Operational advice by teams with continuous field presence on the implementation of agreed programs Economic or institutional analysis in various sectors Up-to-date cross-country data and policy briefings on global issues to inform their own policy debates
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economics by SSRN (based on publications and citations)
article in 2009
month
Indicators Online, and 16 million for Global Development Finance Online
Independent Evaluation by a Panel chaired by Angus Deaton, Chair (Princeton), Abhijit Banerjee (MIT) & Ken Rogoff (Harvard) Assisted by D. Acemoglu (MIT), F. Caselli (LSE), T. Besley (LSE), S. Edwards (UCLA), G. Hanson (UC San Diego), N. Pavcnik (Dartmouth),
Angrist (MIT), S. Galiani (San Andrés, Argentina), J. Morduch (NYU),
Fafchamps (Oxford), Ed Glaeser (Harvard), M. Kremer (Harvard), A. Foster (Brown U.), G. Heal (Columbia U.), P. Diamond (MIT), A. Schoar (MIT) and J. Svejnar (U. of Michigan). Evaluators read a random sample of 420 journal articles, reports, and books talked to senior managers inside the Bank, and to external policymakers and users of Bank research
a) World leader in a number of important areas. Bank is the leading intellectual institution in development b) First rate work includes : social service delivery, impact evaluation, measurement of development outcomes, debate
c) Data generation, from the Living Standard Measurement Surveys, to the Doing Business and Investment Climate surveys, to the International Price Comparison Project Bank’s data provision is key to almost all academic and policy debate on development (the ‘knowledge Bank’)
a) Data collection and dissemination needs to be more systematic b) The borderline between advocacy and research needs to be more carefully respected
c) Inherent tension between policy relevance and academic distinction
more external evaluation
World Bank is not an academic institution. Its research must ultimately be judged by its impact on development, including responding to new challenges
The relevance test: does research lead to better policies?
immediate policy relevance (strategic “blue sky” research)
fits all"
developing countries since local economists know best what opportunities and constraints their country faces
connect knowledge generated by different countries
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World Bank has a role as connector and disseminator of research produced in developing and developed countries The World Bank has a unique vantage point: with partners in government and civil society, it can
Outside experts and centers of excellence are also key. Their role has increased the diversity of sources or advice to which developing countries can turn.
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Many collaborations with developing country researchers
School (NES) in Moscow, the Economic Research Forum (ERF) in Cairo
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
Bank researchers work with consultants from some 90 countries
During 1998-2005, outside researchers who co-authored Bank research came from 66 developing and 25 developed countries
Bank research supported by a number of development partners (major donors like DfID; Sweden, Canada, etc) — providing further
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Conclusion: We can and should do more
research relevant for policy
– only 1% of the administrative budget is devoted to the base budget of the Bank’s Research Group – less than 6% of spending on Knowledge Products is devoted to research
views of its partners on priority areas for research
– Expanding role in impact evaluations; – Emphasis on filling strategic knowledge gaps rather than methodological preferences (randomization is just one tool);
– Visiting Research Fellow Program – Exchanges with developing country researchers
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DEC FY07-FY11 allocated budget
($ million)
FY07 FY08 FY09 Est. FY10 Plan FY11
% change FY07-10
Allocated Bank Budget /1
49.3 50.4 50.2 50.1 50.1 in constant FY07$ 47.9 46.9 45.6 45.4 45.4
Allocation for Research (includes RSB)
23.5 23.8 22.8 22.3 22.3
in constant FY07$ 23.5 23.1 21.5 21.0 21.0
DEC's allocated budget as share of Bank /2
3% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% /1 Excludes cross support, externally-funded outputs (EFOs), reimbursables, and external funds; FY11 is in FY10$ /2 In constant FY07$
Source: CFR budget allocation tables.
Trust Funds help but they are not the solution
used for hiring technical experts to work on long-term research programs
loss of quality
largely determining output response to demands for research and data (Gates example).
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Worrying loss of competitiveness
and top universities for recruiting top researchers
2010:
– Our offer: $85K net on 2-year contract. – The competition offers $145K, tenure-track + $180K guaranteed research support
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World Bank DEC staff, "Research for Development", Policy Research Working Paper 5437, October 2010 http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/5437.html Robert Zoellick, “Democratizing Development Economics,” Speech at Georgetown University, October 20, 2010 http://go.worldbank.org/EY8V84BR10 Evaluation of World Bank research, 1998 – 2005 http://econ.worldbank.org
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Examples of research informing policy
(1) Structural Transformation
Client and problem Analysis and policy recommendations
Client: Poor farmers receiving low prices for soybeans in India Problem: Are farmers fairly compensated or do they pay low prices due to imperfect information, low quality or other reasons? Analysis: Give farmers cell phones or install internet kiosks with price information. Policy Recommendations: Provide farmers with knowledge of market prices (through internet kiosks provided by the private sector company that acts as a middleman)
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Examples of research informing policy
(2) Broadening Opportunities
Client and problem Analysis and policy recommendations
Client: HIV/AIDS patients and their households in Kenya Research problem: what are the best courses of action for AIDS treatment of individuals and their households? Analysis: difference in differences Policy Recommendations: antiretroviral therapy has a range of benefits beyond the medical effects on the person treated -- the patients get back to work quickly and their (uninfected) children show marked improvements in school attendance and nutrition
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Client and problem Analysis and policy recommendations
Client: informal firms and informal sector workers Research Problem: Should employment be encouraged through additional support for formal sector expansion or through expanding credit to informal enterprises? Analysis: Randomized trials in Sri Lanka and Mexico Policy Recommendations: Micro-enterprises invest in viable projects and are capable of paying high interest rates. Barriers to growth in this sector should be reduced, credit extended, rather than solely focusing on creation of formal sector jobs.
Examples of research informing policy
(3) New Global Challenges
Client and problem Analysis and policy recommendations
Client: Fragile States Research Problem: What can be done to prevent recurrence of conflict? Analysis: Research and Consultations launched with WDR 2011 Policy Recommendations: framework using expectations, stresses and capabilities that suggests building confidence and state legitimacy, through inter-related actions on security, economic development, governance, and the provision of justice.
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Client and problem Analysis and policy recommendations
Client: Middle Income Countries using carbon- intensive technologies to produce manufactured products Research Problem: Should industrial countries tax the carbon-content of imports from developing countries based on the carbon content of imports or industrial country domestic production? Analysis: Modeling that identifies impact on developed and developing country production and exports Policy Recommendations: Carbon taxes on imports will lead to large reductions in developing country exports. Negative effects could be mitigated but not eliminated by basing taxes on carbon content of industrial country production.
Examples of research informing policy
(4) Aid Effectiveness
Client and problem Analysis and policy recommendations
Client: Donors and Aid Recipients Research Problem: Should countries diversity donor sources or is donor fragmentation likely to dampen aid effectiveness? Analysis: Cross-country statistical exercise Policy Recommendations: Too many donors and increasing aid fragmentation weaken aid effectiveness . A single donor with a large share
quality of government administration and is less likely to drain the few high-quality managers away from the public sector.
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