The ways & means of industrialisation Simon Wardley Dave Reid, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The ways & means of industrialisation

Simon Wardley
 Dave Reid, Programme Director

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MAPS INDUSTRIALISATION IMPACT RESEARCH WHAT’S NEXT?

Orient Purpose Landscape Climate Doctrine Leadership Observe Decide The “game”

why of purpose why of movement

Act

The Strategy Cycle Sun Tzu's five factors John Boyd’s OODA loop The two types of why

Nottingham London Dover

M1 M2

Nottingham London Dover

M1 M2

Nottingham London Dover

M1 M2

Nottingham London Dover

M1 M2

Nottingham London Dover

M1 M2

Nottingham London Dover

M1 M2

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THESE THREE MAPS ARE DIFFERENT THESE THREE GRAPHS ARE THE SAME

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

Online Photo Storage Data Centre Power Print Web Site CRM Online Image Manipulation Compute Customer Platform

POSITION (VISIBILITY) MOVEMENT (EVOLUTION) ANCHOR

learn.leadingedgeforum.com
 
 medium.com/wardleymaps

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MAPS INDUSTRIALISATION RESEARCH WHAT’S NEXT? IMPACT

Open source Resilience Failure Testing Infrastructure Learning "Big" Data Culture Structure Corporate Focus Type

Departmental Inertia Profit Cost Reduction N+1 Disaster Recovery Analysts Used Enterprise Class Service / Cell Fluid / Game-able Disruption Weapon Design For Failure Chaos Engines Ecosystem Driven By Commodity Traditional Next Generation Capacity Deployment Scale Up Change Control Scale-out Continuous Technique Single Mixed

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

I II III IV V VI VII (instance of) Everett Rogers Diffusion curves COMPUTE

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

Runtime best coding practice Best architectural practice user Operating System Application

COMPUTE V VI VII

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

Runtime best coding practice Best architectural practice user Operating System Application new need Emerging Practice

+Speed +New Value +Efficiency COMPUTE

“Age” (common name) Point of Industrialisation

Date Range (approx.)

Agricultural Revolution Agriculture (Crop rotation) Agriculture (Plough)

1650-1780

Industrial Revolution Power (Water Mill) Resource (Puddling iron) Manufacture (Screw Cutting Lathe)

1770-1840

Age of Steam & Transport Power (Steam) Communication (Postage Stamp)

1830-1880

Age of Electricity & Heavy Engineering Resource (Bessemer) Power (Electricity)

1870-1920

Age of oil Power (Petrochemical) Communication (Telephone)

1910-1970

Age of Information & Telecommunications Information (Microprocessor)

1960-2000

“Internet / Network” Age Communication (TCP/IP) Communication (mobile)

1990–2010

The “people are still coming up with names for it” Age Information (ubiquitous compute, utility compute)

2005-2025 (??)

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

Runtime best coding practice Best architectural practice user Operating System Application new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value Compute +Efficiency +Inertia

• ve
• ve

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

Runtime best coding practice Best architectural practice user Operating System Application new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency Compute +Inertia

+ve +ve

Creative Destruction The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods

• f production or transportation,

the new markets, the new forms of industrial organisation that capitalist enterprise creates.

Joseph Schumpeter

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency +Inertia +Capital flow

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency +Inertia +Capital flow

Concept Suitability Technology Attitude

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency FORCING NEED +Inertia +Capital flow

Concept Suitability Technology [Attitude]

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency FORCING NEED +Inertia +Capital flow

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

Wonder Peace War

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency FORCING NEED +Inertia +Capital flow

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

best coding practice DevOps Best architectural practice (Legacy) user need Operating System

Compute Runtime

Emerging coding practice Serverless Novel Architectural Practice

War

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MAPS INDUSTRIALISATION RESEARCH WHAT’S NEXT? IMPACT

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

“Cloud” war

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency +Inertia +Capital flow

2011

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree

We do not open that we consider a source of differential advantage Next Generation Traditional

0% 15% 30% 45% 60%

Strongly Disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree

Our company deploys an open technology approach as a means of

• utmanoeuvring competitors

Next Generation Traditional

Open source Resilience Failure Testing Infrastructure Learning "Big" Data Culture Structure Corporate Focus Type

Departmental Inertia Profit Cost Reduction N+1 Disaster Recovery Analysts Used Enterprise Class Service / Cell Fluid / Game-able Disruption Weapon Design For Failure Chaos Engines Ecosystem Driven By Commodity Traditional Next Generation Capacity Deployment Scale Up Change Control Scale-out Continuous Technique Single Mixed

“Age” (common name) Organisational change (associated with) Point of Industrialisation

Date Range (approx.)

Agricultural Revolution Commercial Farmer / Markets Agriculture (Crop rotation) Agriculture (Plough)

1650-1780

Industrial Revolution American System of Engineering / Time Management Power (Water Mill) Resource (Puddling iron) Manufacture (Screw Cutting Lathe)

1770-1840

Age of Steam & Transport Joint stock company Power (Steam) Communication (Postage Stamp)

1830-1880

Age of Electricity & Heavy Engineering Scientific Management / Taylorism / Hierarchy of Offices Resource (Bessemer) Power (Electricity)

1870-1920

Age of oil Fordism / Mass Production Power (Petrochemical) Communication (Telephone)

1910-1970

Age of Information & Telecommunications JIT / TPS Information (Microprocessor)

1960-2000

“Internet / Network” Age Web / Web 2.0 Communication (TCP/IP) Communication (mobile)

1990–2010

The “people are still coming up with names for it” Age A “Next” generation (??) Information (ubiquitous compute, utility compute)

2005-2025 (??)

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MAPS INDUSTRIALISATION RESEARCH WHAT’S NEXT? IMPACT

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

War

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency FORCING NEED +Inertia +Capital flow

Certainty Ubiquity

Custom Built Commodity Service (rental) Product Service (utility) Genesis

Supply competition Demand competition

Stage 1 2 3 4 Publication Type

Wonder building, construction and awareness

• peration,

maintenance and feature differences use

time Frequency increasing certainty

100% certain

War

Points of Change 2014 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-203 5 2035-204 2040-204 5 2045-205

Now Near Far

IaaS

War

PaaS

War

SaaS

War

Big Data

War

Robotics

War

Currency (blockchain)

War

Sensor as a Service

War

IoT

War

Immersive

War

3D printing

War

GMO

War

Genetic Engineering

War

Intelligent Agents

War

Printed Electronics

War

Hybrid Printing

War

Bio Manufacturing

War

Epigenetics

War

Materials

War

Unpredictable Predictable

Weak signal analysis, 2014

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

War

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency ISOLATION ECONOMY +Inertia +Capital flow

CONTEXT

Uncharted Industrialised

Genesis Custom Built Product (+ rental) Commodity (+ utility)

Evolution

user new need Emerging Practice +Speed +New Value +Efficiency ISOLATION ECONOMY +Inertia +Capital flow DELIVERY DRONES

RETAIL

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MAPS INDUSTRIALISATION RESEARCH WHAT’S NEXT? IMPACT

Multiple

points of industrialisation. contexts 
 (i.e. industries). forcing functions.

5 tech WG

robotics, immersion, space, manufacturing and sensors

5 industry WG

healthcare, defense, gov, banking and automotive.

1 needs WG

forcing functions.

Thank you

Working Groups

If you want to be involved simon.wardley@leadingedgeforum.com david.reid@leadingedgeforum.com

• r

@swardley @lefdjr