SLIDE 1
Vietnam’s Growth Performance, 2008-2018
Source: GSO
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP, FDI Sector GDP, Manufacturing and Services GDP, Total
the US China Trade War Nguyen Xuan Thanh Fulbright University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
the US China Trade War Nguyen Xuan Thanh Fulbright University - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Vietnam Economy in the Middle of the US China Trade War Nguyen Xuan Thanh Fulbright University Vietnam HCMC, 17 October 2019 Vietnams Growth Performance, 2008 -2018 13% 12% GDP, FDI Sector 11% 10% 9% GDP, Manufacturing and Services
SLIDE 2
SLIDE 3
- The story behind Vietnam’s recent strong growth performance
– FDI-led manufacturing – Growth in household consumption driven by the middle class – Macroeconomic stability
- Challenges ahead
– Navigating the US-China trade war – Taking advantage of continued FDI inflows and shifts in global value chains by boosting investment in infrastructure and improving the business environment
SLIDE 4
The US – China Trade War
- US imports less from China,
but more from the world.
- 24.7
- 15.6
- 11.1
- 7.9
- 7.7
- 4.1
- 2.9
- 2.4
- 1.0
6.2 10 Others Mexico EU28 Vietnam China Canada Singapore Taiwan Japan South Korea
Change in US Trade Balance from Aug 17-Jul 18 to Aug 18-Jul 19
- US trade deficits widened with all major
trading partners, including China.
Change in US Imports from Aug 17-Jul 18 to Aug 18-Jul 19
38.0 27.9 12.1
7.4 7.0 6.2 5.3 4.2 3.0
- 21.7
10 30 50 70 90 110 Singapore Canada India South Korea Taiwan Japan Vietnam Mexico EU28 China
+$92 bn
- $71 bn
Source: USITC
SLIDE 5
Vietnam’s Trade with the US and China
13.3% 14.3% 16.8% 8.1% 27.7%
- 2.0%
- 10%
0% 10% 20% 30% Total Exports To US To China 2018 2019.8M
Exports
13.3% 38.5% 12.5% 8.0% 9.0% 17.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Total Imports From US From China 2018 2019.8M
Imports
16.3% 22.4% 6.7% 24.6%
- 1.6%
60.1% 38.0% 27.8% 28.0%
- 5.2%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Electronics Furniture Machinery Steel products Smart phones 2018 2019.8M
Major Import Products from China
Growth (%)
46.3%
- 16.6%
40.5% 19.3%
- 1.2%
74.3% 88.4% 46.0% 33.0% 27.3%
- 20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 2019.8M
Change
Major Export Products to the US
Source: VN General Department of Customs
SLIDE 6
US Trade Deficit with Vietnam
US$ Billion
Source: VN Customs & USITC
- 34.8
- 44.7
- 41.4
- 50.7
- 60
- 50
- 40
- 30
- 20
- 10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019f
Data from US International Trade Commission Data from Vietnam General Customs Department
SLIDE 7
Despite increased interests from foreign direct investors, newly registered FDI in 2019 is down year-on-year.
2018 US$ Billion 2019.8M US$ Billion Total 17,976 9,128 China 1,217 1,876 South Korea 3,658 1,721 Japan 6,592 1,185 Hong Kong 1,129 1,110 Singapore 1,424 1,034
Note: Newly Registered FDIs do not include M&As & changes in existing FDI companies. Source: Ministry of Planning and Investment
Newly Registered FDI
SLIDE 8
Slow execution and low efficiency in infrastructure investment
Source: GSO
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 % GDP US$ BIllion
Public investment in infrastructure Private investment in infrastructure Infrastructure investment (% GDP)
Boosting infrastructure investment and efficiency should be the government’s top priority to take advantage of continued economic
- penness, develop supply