The Timeline of Presidential Elections Christopher Wlezien - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

Christopher Wlezien University of Texas at Austin

What Happens on Election Day? The “Internal” Fundamentals

• Most voters tend to vote for the same party year

after year. – Party identification. – Match between interests/preferences and candidates’ positions.

• Even true despite the growth in Independents, that

is, because what has grown are the Independent “leaners,” who vote very much like partisans, and the percentage of “pure” Independents actually has shrunk.

Referendum Judgments

• The “floating voters,” who support candidates

for president from different parties in different years, mostly decide on evaluations of the incumbent president.

• Referendum judgments matter even if the

incumbent is not running, as in 2016.

“External” Fundamentals

• The Big E: Economic conditions.
• Aggregate trends – “sociotropic” voting – not our

personal pocketbooks per se.

• Especially the slope of the economy – the direction and

magnitude – not so much its level. That is, are things getting better? Are they a little better or a lot? Large positive growth benefits the incumbent.

• Other factors
• National security.
• “Cost of ruling.”
• Reflected in the president’s approval rating, that is,

public evaluations of presidential job performance.

The Choice also Matters

• Ideological/issue proximity.
• Voters in the middle tend to reward candidates closer

to the middle, and punish those off left or right.

• The Bush-Gore election as an example.
• Other characteristics, e.g., competence.
• But, basic referendum judgments tell most of the

story.

• Is all of the attention to the nominations much ado

about relatively little – the choice voters will face in the general election?

The Timeline of Presidential Elections

• Imagine the timeline of a presidential election.

– E.g., from last election (2012) through Nov 8, 2016.

• We have “trial heat” polls of voter preferences between pairs
• f candidates at different points in the timeline.
• What do these poll results tell us about the eventual outcome
• f the November election?
• What happens to change voter preferences?
• What role does the election campaign play?

Trial Heat Preferences for Final 300 Days of Campaign, 1952-2008,

• 20
• 10 0 1020
• 20
• 10 0 1020
• 20
• 10 0 1020
• 20
• 10 0 1020
• 300
• 200
• 100
• 300
• 200
• 100
• 300
• 200
• 100
• 300
• 200
• 100

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Democratic Vote in Polls (as deviation from Actual Vote) Days Until Election

Graphs by xyear

Trial Heat Preferences During 2012

46 48 50 52 54 56 58

• 300
• 200
• 100

Days Until Election % Obama, of 2-Party Vote

Polls and the Vote, by Days Until the Election

25 50 75 25 50 75 25 50 75 25 50 75 25 50 75 25 50 75

• 300
• 200
• 150
• 120
• 90
• 60
• 30
• 10
• 1

Dem % actual 2-party vote

• Dem. % in Polls
• Dem. % in Polls

Graphs by Days before Election

Polls-Vote Prediction by Days to Election for the Final 300 Days: From Low to High Predictability

.25 .5 .75 1

• 300
• 200
• 100

Days Until Election Adjusted R Squared Lowess Fit Adjusted R Squared

Polls-Vote Prediction by Days Before and After the Party Conventions

Weekly Vote Intentions by Lagged Weekly Vote Intentions, Final Four Weeks of the Campaign

• 20
• 10

10 20

• 20
• 10

10 20

• 20
• 10

10 20

• 20
• 10

10 20

% Democratic minus 50%, Previous Week% Democratic minus 50%, Previous Week % Democratic minus 50%, Previous Week% Democratic minus 50%, Previous Week

• 4
• 3
• 2
• 1

% Democratic

Graphs by Week

Stability of vote choice over the campaign (National Election Study 1952-2008)

.9 .92 .94 .96 .98

• 60
• 40
• 20

Date of interview, Relative to Election Day Lowess Fit Observed Stability Proportion Stable, Interview to Election

From the Final Week to Election Day: Vote for the President’s Party

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

• 5

5 10 15 20

• 5

5 10 15 20 % for President's Party minus 50%, Final Week's Polls % for President's Party, Election Day Vote

Predicting the Polls and the Vote

• Two different economic indicators.

– Objective: Per capita quarterly income growth, with each quarter weighted 1.25 times the previous one in the election cycle (Hibbs) – Subjective: Percent saying “Business Conditions” have improved over the past year minus the percent saying they have gotten worse (on a 0-200 scale, from Survey of Consumer Finances, University of Michigan)

Income Growth and the Polls and the Vote, April to November

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

• 20
• 10

10 20 30 .5 1 1.5 % for Pres. Party in Polls (minus 50%)

Mid-April Cumulatieve P/C Income Growth

1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

• 20
• 10

10 20 30 .5 1 1.5 % for Pres. Party (minus 50%)

Election Day Cumulative P/C Income Growth

Perceived Economy and the Polls and the Vote, April to November

1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

• 20
• 10

10 20 30 50 100 150 % for Pres. Party in Polls (minus 50%)

Mid-April Economic Perceptions

1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

• 20
• 10

10 20 30 50 100 150 % for Pres. Party (minus 50%)

Election Day Economic Perceptions

Correlations between Presidential Approval and Vote Intentions and the Election Day Vote

.2 .4 .6 .8 1

• 200
• 150
• 100
• 50

Days Until Election Vote Intentions Election Day Vote

with Presidential Approval

Correlation

Predicting the Vote from Vote Intentions and Presidential Approval

.2 .4 .6

• 200
• 150
• 100
• 50

Days Until Election Vote Intentions Presidential Approval Regression Coefficient

Candidate positions and the Public

• Recall that it’s not just a referendum.
• Public preferences for policy matter.

– Public shifts to the left (right) benefit Democrats (Republicans);

• Candidate positions matter.

– Candidate shifts to the left (right) benefit Republicans (Democrats).

• This really registers with voters during the

convention season.

On Election Campaign Effects

• Conventions matter, and quite a lot.
• Debates not so much, if at all.
• Other events matter, but small effects, though
• nes that add up to influence the final vote.
• But most of the effect of the election

campaign is to “deliver” the fundamentals.

– Internal, mostly partisan dispositions. – External, mostly referendum judgments.

Questions to Ponder as the 2016 Timeline Unfolds

• How will the economy evolve?
• What about presidential approval?
• Which candidates will win the nominations?
• What positions will they take?
• Will the campaign deliver the “fundamentals”?

• Time and the information it reveals will tell.

Thank you