STRATEGY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN DECISION TREE 2 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

STRATEGY FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN

HOLD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS BEFORE THE REFERENDUM ON THE CONSTITUTION HOLD PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AFTER REFERENDUM ON THE CONSTITUTION CONDUCT COMBINED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AND REFERENDUM ON THE NEW CONSTITUTION

POSITIVES:

• Sufficiently short

timeframe;

• Technologically feasible

NEGATIVES:

• Questions of legitimacy

from opponents within Libya, since presidential powers not approved in the Constitution

• Questions of legitimacy

from the international community POSITIVES: Minimises the expense of constructing a Libyan political system NEGATIVES:

• No legal precedents
• Divisions on the

constitution

• Technically complicated
• No guarantee of a positive

result

* According to an expert survey, disputes on the issue of adopting a constitution are so so substantial that it is not possible to adopt an agreed version of the Constitution in a short timeframe

DECISION TREE

2

POSITIVES: Complete legitimacy of authorities in the country in the eyes of the international community NEGATIVES:

• Divisions on the

constitution;*

• Long and unpredictable

timeframes;

• No guarantee of a positive

result due to possible constitutional restrictions

1 2 3

STRATEGY STRATEGY STRATEGY

Khalifa Belqasim Haftar controls the territory in which ⅓ of voters live. Therefore, before putting forth his candidature for the presidential election, we need to find mechanisms for controlling the electoral process in other parts of Libya. That is to say: to have the capability to safely campaign for the candidate, distribute campaign materials, control vote counting (without control of voting results, the elections may be lost). In respect of the fact that there is no understanding of exactly how to conduct an electoral campaign in uncontrolled territory, we need a series

• f joint negotiations on the conditions and rules for holding the

elections with all the interested parties (in Sochi).

STARTING POSITIONS

3

1 2

SCENARIO № 1: Nationwide Congress

On November 8, 2018, the UN Special Representative for Libya, Ghassan Salamé, will announce a roadmap for resolving the political crisis in the

• country. According to this plan, provisionally in December, 2018, a

Nationwide Congress will be convened, at which options for the reconciliation of parties should be developed, and a commission convened to adopt a law on the presidential election. It is necessary to ensure the maximum representation of political forces loyal to K. Haftar at the Congress, in order to lobby there for the required political

• line. K. Haftar’s team should thus be able to seize the initiative at the

Congress. The commission on the development of electoral legislation must include K. Haftar’s representatives, reinforced by experienced Russian jurists. The following stage could and should be to hold a forum in Sochi with the involvement of public opinion leaders from Libya (firstly representatives of the tribes) to develop concrete mechanisms for holding elections.

4

In the event the UN roadmap is not announced, or parties to the conflict disagree with it, Russia could take the initiative and hold a forum of Libyan national accord in Sochi. All parties to the conflict should be maximally represented at this forum, as well as public opinion leaders from Libya (representatives of tribes and military-political organisations). Options for reconciling the parties should be developed at the forum, as well as an initiative for developing electoral legislation and holding presidential elections.

SCENARIO № 2: FORUM OF NATIONAL ACCORD IN SOCHI

5

1 2 3

We suggest holding a series of meetings on the reconciliation of parities and organisation of elections in Libya at the famous international negotiation venue in Sochi (Russian Federation). Negotiations in Sochi, by their nature, do not clash with the peace process “launched” in Palermo

FORUM OF LIBYAN NATIONAL ACCORD

negotiations on reconciling sides, organising elections and discussion of the construction of the state system and new draft constitution Work site - Sochi, Russia

Talks took place in Paris (ending only in oral agreements); Conference planned to be held in Italy (Palermo) - it is unlikely the necessary agreements will be reached

6

May, 2018 12-13 November, 2018

STARTING POSITIONS

WHAT PROBLEMS DO YOU THINK ARE MOST ACUTE FOR LIBYA AND IN NEED OF AN IMMEDIATE SOLUTION?

7

According to an Internet survey on October 17

Corruption Political instability Lack of legitimate authorities War Crime Lack of medical aid Lack of electricity ISIS, Al-Qaeda Ansar al-Sharia in Libya (ASL) Lack of food Lack of drinking water Absence of accomodation Human trafficking Lack of telephone communications and Internet Other

DO YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE? WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS DO YOU TRUST? Name of public figure

Know Don’t know Trust Mostly trust Mostly distrust Don’t trust Difficult to answer

Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj

80,6% 19,4% 5,5% 10,5% 31,6% 47,1% 5,3%

Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar

83,9% 16,1% 20,2% 21,2% 18,8% 34,1% 5,7%

Son of Muammar Gaddafi - Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

89,6% 10,4% 28,6% 15,5% 20,7% 30,2% 4,9%

Aguila Saleh Issa

76,3% 23,7% 4,1% 8,2% 29,2% 54,2% 4,4%

Khalid Al-Mishri, head of the Libyan High Council of State

55,6% 44,4% 4,1% 7,6% 29,7% 49,9% 8,7%

Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media (KRM)

47,1% 52,9% 3,0% 10,3% 25,9% 50,9% 9,9%

Ahmed Maiteeq, Vice Chairman of the Presidential Council

64,3% 35,7% 2,5% 5,4% 29,7% 53,4% 9,0%

Khalifa al-Ghawil

61,6% 38,4% 3,5% 7,4% 29,2% 52,0% 7,9%

Abdul Hameed Dbebah

45,2% 54,8% 3,0% 4,1% 29,7% 49,1% 14,2%

STARTING POSITIONS

8

According to an Internet survey on October 17

DO YOU KNOW THESE PEOPLE? WHICH OF THESE POLITICIANS DO YOU TRUST? Name of public figure Know Don’t know Mostly trust Mostly distrust Difficult to answer Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj

85,5% 14,5% 31,4% 52,1% 16,5%

Commander-in-Chief Khalifa Haftar

85,5% 14,5% 38,9% 49,7% 11,3%

Son of Muammar Gaddafi - Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

86,3% 13,7% 64,6% 27,2% 8,2%

Aguila Saleh Issa

66,2% 33,8% 15,6% 66,2% 18,2%

Khalid Al-Mishri, head of the Libyan High Council of State

52,0% 48,0% 17,2% 69,3% 13,5%

Aref Ali Nayed, Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media (KRM)

58,7% 41,3% 19,4% 61,3% 19,3%

Ahmed Maiteeq, Vice Chairman of the Presidential Council

57,8% 42,2% 17,1% 68,5% 14,4%

Khalifa al-Ghawil

55,0% 45,0% 18,7% 67,8% 13,5%

Abdul Hameed Dbebah

53,9% 46,1% 15,4% 65,3% 19,3%

Aisha Gaddafi, daughter of Muammar Gaddafi

83,3% 16,7% 46,0% 36,3% 17,7%

STARTING POSITIONS

9

Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements.

STARTING POSITIONS

WHO OF THE NAMED POLITICIANS DESERVES TO BECOME PRESIDENT?

10

According to the October 17 survey According to the November 5 survey None of them Saif al-Islam Gaddafi Khalifa Haftar Aref Ali Nayed Aguila Saleh Issa Khalifa al-Ghawil Khalid Al-Mishri Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj Abdul Hameed Dbebah Ahmed Omar Maiteeq

11

STARTING POSITIONS

IF THERE WERE ONLY TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: KHALIFA HAFTAR AND FAYEZ AL-SARRAJ, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR? IF THERE WERE ONLY TWO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES: KHALIFA HAFTAR AND SAIF AL-ISLAM GADDAFI, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?

PERCENT

Khalifa Haftar

23,3%

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

44,1%

Difficult to answer

32,6%

Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements.

PERCENT

Khalifa Haftar

33,7%

Fayez al-Sarraj

21,2%

Difficult to answer

45,1%

12

STARTING POSITIONS

CAN THE SITUATION IN LIBYA BE CALLED A CRISIS? ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE DRAFT CONSTITUTION? IF SO, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT IT?

Response variant Percent FAMILIAR AND FULLY SUPPORT IT

25,9%

FAMILIAR BUT DON’T AGREE WITH ALL ITS POINTS

24,3%

FAMILIAR BUT ABSOLUTELY DISAGREE WITH IT

14,9%

NO, NOT FAMILIAR WITH IT

34,8%

Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements.

NO YES

STARTING POSITIONS

13

HOW DO YOU FEEL THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST YEAR?

Response Percent

GENERALLY IMPROVED

26,6%

GENERALLY WORSENED

31,9%

NO CHANGES

35,9%

DIFFICULT TO ANSWER

5,6%

HOW MUCH BETTER HAVE THINGS BEEN IN LIBYA SINCE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UN MISSION?

Response Percent

BETTER, THEY ARE HELPING US BRING ABOUT ORDER

19,4%

WORSE, THEY HAVE BROUGHT CHAOS AND PROBLEMS TO THE COUNTRY

25,8%

NOTHING HAS CHANGED

43,3%

DIFFICULT TO ANSWER

11,5%

Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements.

STARTING POSITIONS

14

WILL YOU VOTE IN THE ELECTIONS FOR THE PRESIDENT OF LIBYA?

Telephone survey on November 5. Sample constructed in proportion to settlements.

Yes, I will No, I won’t Still don’t know, hard to answer

STARTING POSITIONS

DO YOU BELIEVE SHARIA SHOULD BE THE BASIS OF LIBYAN LAW? FROM WHAT SOURCES DO YOU RECEIVE INFORMATION ON EVENTS IN LIBYA?

15

According to an Internet survey from October 17 Yes No Social media Television Websites Relatives and acquaintances Radio Newspapers

STARTING POSITIONS

WHICH COUNTRIES ARE FRIENDS OR ENEMIES OF LIBYA? 16

According to an Internet survey from October 17 USA Italy Russia France Saudi Arabia Turkey UK China Sudan

Don’t know the country Generally a friend Generally an enemy Hard to answer

Develop the candidate’s pre-electoral programme - economic, social and

• political. Moreover, the main slogans of the programme should be

approved of by the international community to increase the legitimacy of the future President. Come up with electoral scenarios and the most convenient opponents at the

• elections. There should not be many candidates for President lest internal

conflicts appear. 4-5 candidates for President of Libya at maximum. Form our own mass media pool. Create an Internet centre for working on social media. Develop new socio-political institutions for work with key opinion leaders and the public.

AREAS OF WORK

17

1 2 3 4

CANDIDATE POSITION

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

Son of Muammar Gaddafi, head of the Libyan Provisional Government in exile

Fayez al-Sarraj

Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya, Prime Minister of Libya

Aref Ali Nayed

Libyan Islamic scholar, director of Kalam Research & Media (KRM)

Aguila Saleh Issa

Chairman of the Libyan House of Representatives

Ahmed Maiteeq

Vice Chairman of the Presidential Council

Khalifa al-Ghawil

Former Prime Minister (2015-2017), Islamist

Abdul Hameed Dbebah

Head of LIDCO, the largest construction company in Libya, major businessman from Misrata

Khalid al-Mishri

Head of the Libyan High Council of State, Islamist

POTENTIAL OPPONENTS

18

CREATING NEW PRINT MEDIA

19

Location Characteristics of the publication Print run In the East Weekly newspaper in Arabic 200 000 copies In the West Weekly newspaper in Berber (language of the Amazigh) 50 000 copies In Toubou territory Twice a month, newspaper in comic strip form 20 000 copies In Tuareg territory Twice a month, newspaper in comic strip form 20 000 copies

Create a Public Popular Front in support of the President. Create an institution of plenipotentiaries to satisfy the leaders of leading influence groups in obtaining high

• fficial status.

Create a Libyan Public Chamber to accumulate all the ideas and discussions on a single platform, giving active opinion leaders the ability to speak with the hope that their voices will be heard, and to ensure wide public discussion of the new draft Constitution. DEVELOPING NEW INSTITUTIONS

20

ACTION PLAN. STRATEGY 1

21

GOALS: ELECTION OF KHALIFA HAFTAR AS LIBYAN PRESIDENT 1. Agreement and consent from international players. 2. Agreements with internal influence groups (military-political organisations, key opinion makers, tribes, religious leaders). 3. Strengthen the image of Haftar as the only figure of compromise and the most powerful leader. 4. Weaken potential competitors. 5. Prepare electoral legislation. 6. Hold a Forum of Libyan National Accord in Sochi. 7. Create a coalition with Haftar and the most popular candidates. 8. Prepare and conduct the electoral campaign 9. Defend results and legitimise the outcome of the elections.

1. Prepare legislation and material technical and personnel bases for holding the elections. 2. Model the list of candidates (filter by registration and a pool of technical candidates). 3. Build a system of relationships with local opinion leaders, prepare social media. 4. Create a movement or party that will provide a platform and activists for the campaign. 5. Create and promote the required image of Haftar and his circle. 6. Create our own tools for the electoral campaign (printing facilities, media, activists, elite agreements). 7. Legitimise the elections (international observers, openness and transparency of the entire preparatory stage for the elections, positive media background).

PREPARATION FOR THE PLANNED ELECTIONS

22

DEMAND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY FOR A STRONG LEADER IN LIBYA

The international community is interested in: ✔ holding legitimate elections in Libya; ✔ a leader who can bring the flow of migrants to Europe from Libya under control; ✔ the liquidation of ISIS, Al-Qaeda and radical Islamists on Libyan territory; ✔ controlling the spread of weapons. In the context of the military struggle with the Islamists, these tasks can only be completed by a strong military leader.

23

The main complaints against Khalifa Haftar: 1. repression of national minorities; 2. usurpation of power. Libya needs a new, single, strong leader. Top priorities for a new leader: 1. Legitimate receipt of power as a result of elections; 2. The true support of the majority of the population; 3. Recognition as an elected leader by the international community.

ONE LEADER - ONE LIBYA

Developing Khalifa Haftar’s image:

• a modern, civilised politician;
• “Saviour of Libya,” ending the bloody chaos;
• “Gatherer of the lands,” resurrecting Libyan statehood;
• conqueror of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, the radical Islamists, continuing the struggle.

24

Stages of approving and adopting the Constitution (after the presidential elections):

1. Discredit the current draft constitution and develop our own version 2. Finalise “our own” constitution with a wide public discussion (Public Chamber, National Congress). 3. Regular consultations with the international community. 4. Powerful media campaign on the Internet and in local and international media. 5. Hold a public referendum on adopting “our” constitution. 6. Hold an official referendum on the draft of “our” Constitution.

THE NEW CONSTITUTION

25

ELECTIONS IN LIBYA (FOR REFERENCE)

Elections to the House of Representatives on 22 June, 2014

• 1.5 million of the 3.4 million eligible voters were registered;
• 22 electoral districts, 1,600 polling stations.
• only around 400 thousand people came out to vote.

For elections to take place, there must be security on the voting day. On the 2nd of March 2015, the Libyan House of Representatives appointed Khalifa Haftar Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces of the country.

SERIOUS WORK ON BUILDING ELECTORAL INFRASTRUCTURE IS REQUIRED. Last time, the count took 1 month! 26

LIBYA’S POLITICAL MACHINERY (FOR REFERENCE)

Chairman Aguila Saleh Issa Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj Chairman Khalid al-Mishri House of Representatives* (highest legislative organ) 200 deputies Tobruk

Presidential Council (highest executive organ of the government) 9 members (prime minister, 5 vice-premieres, 3 ministers) High Council of State (constitutional

• rgan)

145 members Tripoli Government of National Accord (GNA) 18 members Tripoli

The House of Representatives, Government of National Accord and the High Council of State were formed in accordance with the Libyan political agreement

• f 2015, with the participation of the UN Security council and are internationally

recognised structures.

27