The role of science in climate policy making Dr Jolene Cook - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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the role of science in climate policy making
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The role of science in climate policy making Dr Jolene Cook - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The role of science in climate policy making Dr Jolene Cook Science and Innovation Directorate University of Melbourne, 27 April 2016 In todays talk Life at the science-policy interface: The path from post-doc to policy

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The role of science in climate policy making

Dr Jolene Cook Science and Innovation Directorate

University of Melbourne, 27 April 2016

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In today’s talk…

  • Life at the science-policy interface: The path

from post-doc to policy

  • Gathering and using the evidence

1. Geoengineering 2. Greenhouse gas metrics 3. The long-term global temperature goal

  • The Paris Agreement: future evidence needs

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Life at the science-policy interface

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The DECC Science team

  • Scientific support to DECC policy teams
  • Provides scientific advice to inform UK, EU and international climate

policy

  • UK focal point for IPCC
  • Commissions evidence and engage with the research community and

research councils

  • International engagement and science diplomacy
  • Greenhouse gas inventory and statistics
  • Climate science capability including Met Office Hadley Centre

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EU climate policy making: context

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20 40 60 80 100 120 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Total GHG emissions in (Mt CO2e) 1990 2013 GDP per capita in 2014 (PPP) ($ x 1000)

Source: Eurostat Source: World Bank

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The importance of the IPCC

  • An assessment of the current literature
  • Policy relevant, not policy prescriptive
  • 195 parties signed up to the findings

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Gathering and using evidence

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Example 1: A new and controversial area

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Geoengineering

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Geoengineering: considerations

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Efficacy Efficacy Technical feasibility Technical feasibility Costs Costs Side effects Side effects Legality Legality Ethics Ethics Social acceptability Social acceptability Reversibility Reversibility

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Forming policy on research

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DECC analysis Royal Society report (2009) Parliamentary inquiry Government statement on research Government response Cross-Government working group

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Example 2: Combining science with value judgements

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A basket of gases

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Choice of metric and time horizon

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GWP100 GWP20 GTP100 SAR AR5 AR5 AR5 CO2 1 1 1 1 CH4 21 28 84 4 N2O 310 265 264 234 HFC23 11,700 12,400 12,700 SF6 23,900 23,500 28,200 NF3

  • 16,100

18,100 Other HFCs 140 – 9,200 1-8,060 19 – 12,700 N

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The impact of choice of metric

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1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008 1990 2008

CO2e emissions per year

High F gases N2O CH4 CO2

8.2% ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 7.2% ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 160% ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ 193% ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ 8.5% ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ 7.8 % ↑ ↑ ↑ ↑ Larger increase Smaller increase Smaller decrease Stronger decrease 7.9% ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓ 16% ↓ ↓ ↓ ↓

China USA EU27 Brazil

GWP GTP GWP GTP GWP GTP GWP GTP

ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY

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Example 3: Science in the Paris Agreement

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The Paris Agreement: an overview

  • A historic step forward: almost 200 countries committing to climate change

action to which they will be held to account

  • National commitments: not yet on a cost-effective 2°

C trajectory but a major deviation from business as usual

  • A framework for revisiting and raising ambition in the future
  • A long-term goal of net zero emissions in the second half of the century

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The long-term goal in the Paris Agreement

“…aims to … [hold] the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 ° C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ° C…” (Article 2) “…to undertake rapid reductions … to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century…” (Article 4)

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The long-term temperature goal: A potted political history

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1996: EU Environment Council conclusions 2009: UNFCCC Copenhagen Accord 2010: UNFCCC Cancun Agreement 2015: two-year review finishes; UNFCCC SBSTA conclusion 2015: Paris Agreement 2013: Start of a 2-year review of the long-term global temperature goal 2018: IPCC Special Report on 1.5 ° C

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The Paris Agreement and the long- term goal: Future evidence needs

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Impacts at 1.5/2/2.5 ° C

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From IPCC AR5 WGII

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Actions and targets

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IPCC AR5 WGIII, Summary for Policymakers

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Feasibility, challenges and risks

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Regional/country implications of 1.5° C

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Final remarks

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The big picture Interdisciplinary collaboration Good communication!

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