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Autumn Lecture Series 2008 The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change The EU and the International Cooperation on Climate Change Sebastian Oberthr 1 01 October 2008 Content 1. Milestones of International Climate Policy 2. UN

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1 01 October 2008

Sebastian Oberthür

The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

The EU and the International Cooperation on Climate Change

Autumn Lecture Series 2008

2 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

Content

1. Milestones of International Climate Policy 2. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 3. Kyoto Protocol 4. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy I 5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”? 6. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy II

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3 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 1. Milestones of Int’l Climate Policy
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC,

established 1988)

  • 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

(UNFCCC)

  • 1997 Kyoto Protocol
  • 2001 Marrakech Accords (implementing provisions for

Kyoto Protocol)

  • 2005 entry into force of Kyoto Protocol (without the US

and Australia)

  • 2007 Bali Roadmap

4 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 2. UNFCCC (1)
  • Objective (Art. 2): stabilization of GHG concentrations

at level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (translates into global GHG emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050, more afterwards)

  • Principles (Art. 3), in particular: CBDR+RC
  • Comprehensive approach: all GHGs, all sources and

sinks

  • General commitments (reporting and review, plans,

policies and measures, financing)

  • ...but no specific targets
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5 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 2. UNFCCC (2)
  • Categories of actors: Parties
  • Developed/industrialized countries (Annex I)
  • OECD (Annex II)
  • Countries with economies in transition (EITs)
  • Developing countries (non-Annex I)
  • Many sub-categories (esp. Art. 4.8, 4.9)
  • Categories of actors: non-Parties
  • Secretariat
  • IGOs (incl. IPCC, GEF)
  • NGOs (environmental, business, research, etc.)

6 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 2. UNFCCC (3)

Institutional Structure

  • Conference of the Parties (COP) (Art. 7)
  • Subsidiary Bodies for Scientific and Technological

Advice (SBSTA) and for Implementation (SBI) (Art. 9 and 10)

  • Secretariat (Art. 8)
  • Financial Mechanism: Global Environment Facility

(GEF)

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7 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 2. UNFCCC (4)

Assessment

 Weak commitments  Objective and principles as basis for further elaboration  Platform and institutional structure for future development  Framework for creation of obligations

  • Regime development possible through
  • COP
  • additional Protocol(s)
  • Convention amendments

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  • 3. Kyoto Protocol: reduction targets
  • - 5% for all industrialized countries - differentiated

targets for individual countries

  • Base year: 1990 (with flexibility for countries with

economies in transition)

  • Commitment period 2008-2012
  • Basket of GHGs (CO2, methane, N2O, HFCs, PFCs,

SF6)

  • Accounting of sinks (reforestation, deforestation,

forest management et al.)

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  • 3. KP: market mechanisms
  • JI
  • Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in other

developed countries to gain emission credits (ERUs)

  • Clean Development Mechanism
  • Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in developing

countries to gain emission credits (CERs)

  • Support for sustainable development in developing countries
  • Emissions Trading
  • Selling and buying emissions (AAUs) between developed

countries

⇒Enhance efficiency (do not reduce overall emissions)

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The Kyoto Mechanisms

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  • 3. KP: further areas
  • Reporting and Review
  • Compliance
  • Financial assistance
  • Technology Transfer
  • Adaptation
  • Capacity Building
  • Impact of response measures
  • ...

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  • 3. KP: institutional framework
  • Based on the Convention: Secretariat, Subsidiary

Bodies, “Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties” (COP/MOP), Financial Mechanism (GEF)

  • Executive Board of the CDM
  • JI Supervisory Committee
  • Compliance Committee (Facilitative Branch,

Enforcement Branch)

  • Adaptation Fund Board
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  • 3. KP: assessment
  • First step is done, but current reduction

commitments are insufficient (global emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050 required + further reduction afterwards)

  • Solid and flexible institutional structure to build on

(including emissions trading, CDM, JI, reporting) - (currently) without credible alternative

  • Increasing (functional and political) differentiation

and complexity of governance system (different GHGs, sinks, reporting, market mechanisms, compliance, adaptation, etc.)

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  • 4. EU leadership I (1)
  • UNFCCC negotiations: Pushing for stabilization target

for industrialized countries by 2000

  • Kyoto negotiations: Pushing for 15% emission reduction
  • f industrialized countries by 2010 (7.5% by 2005)
  • Kyoto Protocol: Strongest target (see table)
  • Internal “burden-sharing agreement” (see table)
  • But: little implementing measures (failed CO2/energy

tax, voluntary agreements, ) ⇒“Rhetorical leadership” in the 1990s

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  • 4. EU leadership I: Kyoto targets

Iceland +10% Australia +8% Norway +1% New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine Stabilisation Croatia

  • 5%

Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland

  • 6%

USA

  • 7%

EC and 15 member states + BUL, CZE, EST, LAT, LIE, LTU, MON, ROM, SVK, SLO and SUI

  • 8%

Party Target

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  • 4. EU leadership I: burden sharing

Reduction by 2008-2012 +13.0% +25.0%

  • 21.0%

0.0% 0.0%

  • 21.0%
  • 7.5%
  • 13.0%

Reduction by 2008-2012

  • 8.0%
  • 12.5%

+4.0% +15.0% +27.0%

  • 6.0%
  • 28.0%
  • 6.5%

Ireland EU-Total UK Greece Sweden Germany Spain France Portugal Finland Netherlands Denmark Luxembourg Belgium Italy Austria Member state (continued) Member state

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17 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 4. EU leadership I (4)
  • US exit + Marrakech Accords of 2001: defending

“environmental integrity” (market mechanisms, compliance, sinks) + saving the Kyoto Protocol

  • Ratification campaign (entry into force in 2005):

convincing Russia

  • Domestically: European Climate Change Programme

(ECCP) of 2000, including emissions trading directive (see table) ⇒Addressing the credibility gap (but limited impact

  • n emissions)

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  • 4. EU leadership I: EU climate policies

515-615 60-200 40-55

  • ca. 70

35-40 100-125

  • ca. 40

75-80

Reduction Potential by 2012 (Mt CO2 eq)

All existing EU policies and measures Total Other policies and measures Until 2007 Directive on Energy End Use Efficiency and Energy Services 2006 Emissions Trading Directive 2003/04 Directive on Promotion of Bio-fuel 2003 Renewable Energy Directive 2001 Landfill Directive 1999 Voluntary agreements with car manufacturers 1998/99

Policy Year

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19 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 4. EU leadership I (6)
  • Challenges to the EU’s international “actorness”:
  • Mixed/shared competence
  • Unity
  • Representation
  • Effective negotiation/diplomacy
  • Responses:
  • Role of EU Presidency (coordination and representation)
  • EU Troika (representation)
  • Evolution of internal coordination mechanisms (Council)

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  • 5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”?
  • Two negotiating tracks:
  • Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.9 and Article 9)
  • UNFCCC (“Bali Roadmap”)
  • Schedule:
  • Poznan (December 2008)
  • 4-5 negotiating sessions in 2009
  • Deadline for submission of text for legal instrument

6 months prior to Copenhagen

  • Copenhagen (December 2009)
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21 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”?
  • Agenda of negotiations:
  • Mitigation commitments of industrialized countries
  • Mitigation action in (more advanced) developing countries
  • Further development of market mechanisms (“global carbon

markets“)

  • Mechanisms for transfer of finances and technology
  • Adaptation (including finance)
  • Emissions from international transport (aviation and maritime

transport)

  • Avoid/minimize deforestation
  • Impacts of response measures (etc.)

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  • 5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”?

⇒Many issues, many parties - a major challenge for coming to an agreement

⇒The international framework is not likely to

get less complex...

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  • 6. EU leadership II (1)
  • Bali Roadmap and beyond: pushing for

“Copenhagen Agreement” (post-2012)

  • European Council: unilateral commitment to

cut GHG emissions by 20% by 2020 + increase share of renewables to 20% by 2020 (+ 20% energy efficiency improvement by 2020)

  • Challenges to EU as an international actor:

ensuring EU unity + effective climate diplomacy (outreach and strategy)

24 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

  • 6. EU leadership II (2)
  • The climate/energy package (proposed by

European Commission):

  • ETS reform
  • Effort sharing
  • Renewables Directive
  • Also: CO2 and cars, energy efficiency, aviation, maritime

transport?

  • Closing the credibility gap?
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UK Sweden Spain Portugal Netherlands Luxembourg Italy Ireland Greece Germany France Finland Denmark Belgium Austria

EU-15

Source: EEA

26 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

Lecture Series Programme

The Prospects for a New International Agreement

  • n Climate Change

19 Nov. The EU, Climate Change and the Promotion of Renewable Energy 12 Nov. The EU and Adaptation to Climate Change: Internal and External Dimensions 5 Nov. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme: Internal and External Dimensions 29 Oct. Mitigating CO2 Emissions from Cars 22 Oct. EU Climate Policies: State and Perspectives 15 Oct. The EU, IPCC and the Science of Climate Change: The 2 degrees C Target 8 Oct.

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Lecture Series Programme (2)

The EU Climate/Energy Package: Internal and External Implications (see www.ies.be for exact date) KEYNOTE LECTURE:

  • Jan. 2009

The EU and the Future of International Climate Protection 17 Dec. The EU, Russia and Climate Change 10 Dec. Transatlantic Politics of Climate Change 3 Dec. The EU as an Actor in International Climate Policy: External Competence, Internal Procedure and Actual Practice 26 Nov.

28 Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change

Principal sources

  • Axelrod, Regina et al. (eds.) (2005) The Global Environment
  • Bodansky, Daniel (1993), The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change: A Commentary, Yale Journal of International Law 18, 451-558.

  • Chasek, Pamela (ed.) (2000) The Global Environment in the Twenty-First Century
  • Grubb, Michael et al. (1999), The Kyoto Protocol. A Guide and Assessment, London.
  • Kiss, Alxeandre & Shelton, Dinah (2006) International Environmental Law
  • Oberthür, Sebastian & Ott, Hermann (1999) The Kyoto Protocol. International

Climate Policy for the 21st Century

  • Oberthür, Sebatian & Claire Roche Kelly (2008) EU Leadership on International

Climate Policy: Achievements and Challenges, The International Spectator 43: 3, 35-50.

  • Peeters, M. and K. Deketelaere (eds) (2006), EU Climate Change Policy. The

Challenge of New Regulatory Initiatives, Cheltenham.

  • Yamin, Farhana & Depledge, Joanna (2004) The International Climate Change

Regime