Autumn Lecture Series 2008 The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change The EU and the International Cooperation on Climate Change Sebastian Oberthür 1 01 October 2008 Content 1. Milestones of International Climate Policy 2. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 3. Kyoto Protocol 4. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy I 5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”? 6. EU Leadership on International Climate Policy II Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 2 1
1. Milestones of Int’l Climate Policy • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, established 1988) • 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • 1997 Kyoto Protocol • 2001 Marrakech Accords (implementing provisions for Kyoto Protocol) • 2005 entry into force of Kyoto Protocol (without the US and Australia) • 2007 Bali Roadmap Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 3 2. UNFCCC (1) • Objective (Art. 2): stabilization of GHG concentrations at level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (translates into global GHG emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050, more afterwards) • Principles (Art. 3), in particular: CBDR+RC • Comprehensive approach: all GHGs, all sources and sinks • General commitments (reporting and review, plans, policies and measures, financing) • ...but no specific targets Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 4 2
2. UNFCCC (2) • Categories of actors: Parties • Developed/industrialized countries (Annex I) • OECD (Annex II) • Countries with economies in transition (EITs) • Developing countries (non-Annex I) • Many sub-categories (esp. Art. 4.8, 4.9) • Categories of actors: non-Parties • Secretariat • IGOs (incl. IPCC, GEF) • NGOs (environmental, business, research, etc.) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 5 2. UNFCCC (3) Institutional Structure • Conference of the Parties (COP) (Art. 7) • Subsidiary Bodies for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and for Implementation (SBI) (Art. 9 and 10) • Secretariat (Art. 8) • Financial Mechanism: Global Environment Facility (GEF) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 6 3
2. UNFCCC (4) Assessment Weak commitments Objective and principles as basis for further elaboration Platform and institutional structure for future development Framework for creation of obligations Regime development possible through • • COP • additional Protocol(s) • Convention amendments Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 7 3. Kyoto Protocol: reduction targets • - 5% for all industrialized countries - differentiated targets for individual countries • Base year: 1990 (with flexibility for countries with economies in transition) • Commitment period 2008-2012 • Basket of GHGs (CO2, methane, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) • Accounting of sinks (reforestation, deforestation, forest management et al.) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 8 4
3. KP: market mechanisms • JI • Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in other developed countries to gain emission credits (ERUs) • Clean Development Mechanism • Projects that reduce emissions or increase sinks in developing countries to gain emission credits (CERs) • Support for sustainable development in developing countries • Emissions Trading • Selling and buying emissions (AAUs) between developed countries ⇒ Enhance efficiency (do not reduce overall emissions) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 9 The Kyoto Mechanisms Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 10 5
3. KP: further areas • Reporting and Review • Compliance • Financial assistance • Technology Transfer • Adaptation • Capacity Building • Impact of response measures • ... Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 11 3. KP: institutional framework • Based on the Convention: Secretariat, Subsidiary Bodies, “Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties” (COP/MOP), Financial Mechanism (GEF) • Executive Board of the CDM • JI Supervisory Committee • Compliance Committee (Facilitative Branch, Enforcement Branch) • Adaptation Fund Board Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 12 6
3. KP: assessment • First step is done, but current reduction commitments are insufficient (global emission reduction of at least 50% by 2050 required + further reduction afterwards) • Solid and flexible institutional structure to build on (including emissions trading, CDM, JI, reporting) - (currently) without credible alternative • Increasing (functional and political) differentiation and complexity of governance system (different GHGs, sinks, reporting, market mechanisms, compliance, adaptation, etc.) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 13 4. EU leadership I (1) • UNFCCC negotiations: Pushing for stabilization target for industrialized countries by 2000 • Kyoto negotiations: Pushing for 15% emission reduction of industrialized countries by 2010 (7.5% by 2005) • Kyoto Protocol: Strongest target (see table) • Internal “burden-sharing agreement” (see table) • But: little implementing measures (failed CO2/energy tax, voluntary agreements, ) ⇒ “Rhetorical leadership” in the 1990s Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 14 7
4. EU leadership I: Kyoto targets Target Party -8% EC and 15 member states + BUL, CZE, EST, LAT, LIE, LTU, MON, ROM, SVK, SLO and SUI -7% USA -6% Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland -5% Croatia Stabilisation New Zealand, Russian Federation, Ukraine +1% Norway +8% Australia +10% Iceland Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 15 4. EU leadership I: burden sharing Member state Reduction by Member state Reduction by 2008-2012 (continued) 2008-2012 Austria -13.0% Italy -6.5% Belgium -7.5% Luxembourg -28.0% Denmark -21.0% Netherlands -6.0% Finland 0.0% Portugal +27.0% France 0.0% Spain +15.0% Germany -21.0% Sweden +4.0% Greece +25.0% UK -12.5% Ireland +13.0% EU-Total -8.0% Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 16 8
4. EU leadership I (4) • US exit + Marrakech Accords of 2001: defending “environmental integrity” (market mechanisms, compliance, sinks) + saving the Kyoto Protocol • Ratification campaign (entry into force in 2005): convincing Russia • Domestically: European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) of 2000, including emissions trading directive (see table) ⇒ Addressing the credibility gap (but limited impact on emissions) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 17 4. EU leadership I: EU climate policies Year Policy Reduction Potential by 2012 (Mt CO2 eq) 1998/99 Voluntary agreements with car 75-80 manufacturers 1999 Landfill Directive ca. 40 2001 Renewable Energy Directive 100-125 2003 Directive on Promotion of Bio-fuel 35-40 2003/04 Emissions Trading Directive ca. 70 2006 Directive on Energy End Use 40-55 Efficiency and Energy Services Until 2007 Other policies and measures 60-200 Total All existing EU policies and 515-615 measures Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 18 9
4. EU leadership I (6) • Challenges to the EU’s international “actorness”: • Mixed/shared competence • Unity • Representation • Effective negotiation/diplomacy • Responses: • Role of EU Presidency (coordination and representation) • EU Troika (representation) • Evolution of internal coordination mechanisms (Council) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 19 5. Towards a “Copenhagen Agreement”? • Two negotiating tracks: • Kyoto Protocol (Article 3.9 and Article 9) • UNFCCC (“Bali Roadmap”) • Schedule: • Poznan (December 2008) • 4-5 negotiating sessions in 2009 • Deadline for submission of text for legal instrument 6 months prior to Copenhagen • Copenhagen (December 2009) Sebastian Oberthür (01 October 2008 ) Autumn Lecture Series 2008: The EU and the Fight against Global Climate Change 20 10
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