TATT 7 th I CT Open Forum Telecom m unications Authority of Trinidad and Tobago ( Port of Spain, Trinidad, April 2 0 , 2 0 1 1 ) The rise of the m achines The rise of the m achines - I CTs for I CTs for abating clim ate change Richard Labelle Consultant, I CT & clim ate change rlab@sym patico.ca T Tw itter.com / rlabelle itt / l b ll
Objectives To highlight the problem posed by global environmental change environmental change To demonstrate why information and communication technologies (ICTs) are a g ( ) crucial part of the solution – i.e. Green Growth & sustainable development 2
Four notew orthy trends … 1. The (continued) rise of the humans Increases in people wealth and intellectual Increases in people, wealth and intellectual − resources (brain power), leading to a …. 2. …. rise of demand rise of demand 2 Increased demand for energy, food & natural ─ resources resulting in accelerated …. 3. … climate change & environmental impacts p 4. … the rise of the machines (ICTs). 3
Global change & clim ate ( 1 ) Climate change is a real threat Fossil fuel emissions tracking surface Fossil fuel emissions tracking surface warming Land use practices lead to increased Land use practices lead to increased GHG emissions A need to “Reduce Emissions from A need to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation” C sinks in ocean and on land are at risk Earth processes at risk 4
I PCC Projections of surface w arm ing as a result of increasing GHG em issions g [ IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm 5
Global change & clim ate ( 2 ) If > 2 degree C rise, potential for cataclysmic change cataclysmic change 6
Atm ospheric concentrations of CO2 January 2 0 1 1 : 3 9 1 .1 9 ppm y pp http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/ 7
I m pacts from increasing GHGs levels in the atm osphere e a osp e e [1] Stern, N. 2006. Stern Review on the economics of climate change (pre-publication edition). 8 Executive summary. HM Treasury. London. 27 pp. http://www.hm- treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm
Global change & clim ate ( 3 ) Growing population & affluence Shift in global growth to emerging Shift in global growth to emerging markets Increasing demand for food energy Increasing demand for food, energy & natural resources Energy demand is growing at pace of E d d i i t f worst case global warming scenario Demand growing fastest in the Demand growing fastest in the developing world Food supply strained and prices Food supply strained and prices increasing 9
W orld prim ary energy dem and by region – I EA New Policies Scenario eg o e o c es Sce a o IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010 . N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides. http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf 10
Global change & clim ate ( 4 ) Price, availability and security of energy supplies? energy supplies? Global supply chain liabilities 11
Global change & clim ate ( 5 ) Environmental risks associated with hard to access oil resources hard to access oil resources Offshore & deep sea drilling Drilling in sensitive ecosystems: the D illi i iti t th Arctic/Antarctic, coastal areas, etc. Extracting heavy oil (Oil sands heavy Extracting heavy oil (Oil sands, heavy oil) Hydraulic fracturing: shale gas Hydraulic fracturing: shale gas 12
Global change & clim ate ( 6 ) Increased incidence & cost of power failures & blackouts failures & blackouts Old electrical grid is prone to failure M lti billi Multi billion USD costs USD t Commodity prices increasing Food riots, etc. Price, availability and security of essential minerals supplies (rare earths, etc.) 13
Global change & clim ate ( 7 ) Renewable energy still has a ways to go before being able to meet global go before being able to meet global needs 14
Proportion of energy expressed in CMO from different prim ary sources ( 2 0 0 6 data) p y ( ) Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis . Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa 15
W e have a problem ! Renewables are plentiful but require massive investment to fully replace massive investment to fully replace fossil fuels 23 000 CMO / yr from solar but 23,000 CMO / yr. from solar.. but… Now using about 0.2 CMO/yr fm solar For 1 CMO solar: 70,000 x 100 MW F 1 CMO l 70 000 100 MW Spain Andasol solar thermal @ $ 14 Trillion Trillion 27 Andasol projects/ week for 50 yrs! At present rate of E demand – need 270 At present rate of E demand need 270 CMO by 2050! 16
Predicted global energy use in CMO under 4 different scenarios Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis . Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa 17
Global change & clim ate ( 6 ) Lack of unified & binding commitment to UNFCCC process commitment to UNFCCC process does not mean lack of action… 18
The top ten countries leading investm ent in clean energy technologies gy g [ Pew Charitable Trusts. 2010. The clean energy economy. China Leads G-20 Members in Clean Energy Finance and Investment . http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/cleanenergyeconomy/pr_24mar2010.html 19
Som e elem ents of a solution No silver bullet (no single solution) Mi f Mix of approaches needed h d d Efficiency and conservation very very important Transition from fossil fuels with focus on renewables & efficiency, CCS, +/- nuclear WWF 2011: possible to (mostly) replace fossil fuels with renewables replace fossil fuels with renewables by 2050... without nuclear or CCS 20
The past contribution of energy efficiency Segar, C. 2009. International energy co-operation and global energy security. International Energy Agency (IEA). Session on “Ensuring the sustainability of energy supply chain” , Conference on Strengthening Energy Security in the OSCE area, Bratislava, 6 – 7 July 2009. PowerPoint presentation. http://www.osce.org/documents/eea/2009/07/38666_en.pdf 21
Energy efficiency w ill have m ajor role to play in achieving low C future ( I EA) p y g ( ) IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010 . N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides. http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf 22
The rise of the m achines … I CTs & related trends & innovations ( 1 ) related trends & innovations ( 1 ) Digitization & dematerialization Digitization & dematerialization Microprocessors ARM vs Intel Handhelds vs desk/lap tops Internet diffusion IPv6 IPv6 Broadband Clo d comp ting Cloud computing 23
A sam ple telepresence session [ 24
I CT & related trends & innovations ( 2 ) Nanotechnology & micro-electro- mechanical systems (MEMS) mechanical systems (MEMS) Wireless & mobile device uptake Web 2.0 & 3.0 Agenda 21 redux: Everyone is a user and provider of content (information) Innovations in display technology Gorilla glass, Dragontrail, etc. � massive increase in display surface area 25 Havana, Cuba, 8-9 February 2011
I CT & related trends & innovations( 3 ) The Internet of Things (IOT) Everything and everywhere connected Everything and everywhere connected Sensor technology Sensor networks Social networking Improved & greener batteries GIS & visualization technologies such GIS & visualization technologies such as building information modeling (BIM) (BIM) 26
I CTs enhance efficiency & facilitate co se conservation by ( 1 ) : at o by ( ) Process efficiency Doing things fast Doing things fast Use less energy � emit less C Connecting everything: C i hi Instrumenting objects and places around us: The Internet of Things d Th I f Thi Measuring everything: The Internet of Things More info on energy use 27
I CTs enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by ( 2 ) : co se at o by ( ) Controlling everything Smart controls Smart controls Connect & control all motors & energy consumption (embedded controls) consumption (embedded controls) More options to reduce consumption: sma t g id b ildings logistics smart grid, buildings, logistics /transport & cities 28
The negative im pact of I CTs on GHG em issions o G G e ss o s E Energy consumption from using ICTs ti f i ICT About 2-3 % of total emissions, growing t 6 % to 6 % Same as aviation industry PC & PCs & peripherals i h l Telecoms infrastructure Data centres ICT use is increasing and so are GHG emissions from ICTs f C 29
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