The rise of the m achines The rise of the m achines - I CTs for I - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TATT 7 th I CT Open Forum Telecom m unications Authority of Trinidad and Tobago

The rise of the m achines I CTs for

( Port of Spain, Trinidad, April 2 0 , 2 0 1 1 )

The rise of the m achines - I CTs for abating clim ate change

Richard Labelle Consultant, I CT & clim ate change

rlab@sym patico.ca T itt / l b ll Tw itter.com / rlabelle

Objectives

To highlight the problem posed by global environmental change environmental change To demonstrate why information and communication technologies (ICTs) are a g ( ) crucial part of the solution – i.e. Green Growth & sustainable development

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Four notew orthy trends …

• 1. The (continued) rise of the humans

Increases in people wealth and intellectual

−

Increases in people, wealth and intellectual resources (brain power), leading to a …. 2

rise of demand

• 2. …. rise of demand

─

Increased demand for energy, food & natural resources resulting in accelerated ….

• 3. … climate change & environmental

impacts p

• 4. … the rise of the machines (ICTs).

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Global change & clim ate ( 1 ) Climate change is a real threat

Fossil fuel emissions tracking surface Fossil fuel emissions tracking surface warming Land use practices lead to increased Land use practices lead to increased GHG emissions

A need to “Reduce Emissions from A need to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation”

C sinks in ocean and on land are at risk Earth processes at risk

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I PCC Projections of surface w arm ing as a result of increasing GHG em issions g

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[IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC. Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K. and Reisinger, A. (Eds.). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp 104. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_synthesis_report.htm

Global change & clim ate ( 2 ) If > 2 degree C rise, potential for cataclysmic change cataclysmic change

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Atm ospheric concentrations of CO2 January 2 0 1 1 : 3 9 1 .1 9 ppm y pp

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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

I m pacts from increasing GHGs levels in the atm osphere e a

• sp

e e

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[1] Stern, N. 2006. Stern Review on the economics of climate change (pre-publication edition).

Executive summary. HM Treasury. London. 27 pp. http://www.hm- treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm

Global change & clim ate ( 3 ) Growing population & affluence

Shift in global growth to emerging Shift in global growth to emerging markets

Increasing demand for food energy Increasing demand for food, energy & natural resources

E d d i i t f Energy demand is growing at pace of worst case global warming scenario Demand growing fastest in the Demand growing fastest in the developing world Food supply strained and prices

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Food supply strained and prices increasing

W orld prim ary energy dem and by region – I EA New Policies Scenario eg o e

• c es Sce

a

• 10
• IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010. N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010.

PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides. http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf

Global change & clim ate ( 4 ) Price, availability and security of energy supplies? energy supplies? Global supply chain liabilities

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Global change & clim ate ( 5 ) Environmental risks associated with hard to access oil resources hard to access oil resources

Offshore & deep sea drilling D illi i iti t th Drilling in sensitive ecosystems: the Arctic/Antarctic, coastal areas, etc. Extracting heavy oil (Oil sands heavy Extracting heavy oil (Oil sands, heavy

• il)

Hydraulic fracturing: shale gas Hydraulic fracturing: shale gas

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Global change & clim ate ( 6 ) Increased incidence & cost of power failures & blackouts failures & blackouts

Old electrical grid is prone to failure M lti billi USD t Multi billion USD costs

Commodity prices increasing

Food riots, etc.

Price, availability and security of essential minerals supplies (rare earths, etc.)

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Global change & clim ate ( 7 ) Renewable energy still has a ways to go before being able to meet global go before being able to meet global needs

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Proportion of energy expressed in CMO from different prim ary sources ( 2 0 0 6 data) p y ( )

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Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa

W e have a problem ! Renewables are plentiful but require massive investment to fully replace massive investment to fully replace fossil fuels

23 000 CMO / yr from solar but 23,000 CMO / yr. from solar.. but… Now using about 0.2 CMO/yr fm solar F 1 CMO l 70 000 100 MW For 1 CMO solar: 70,000 x 100 MW Spain Andasol solar thermal @ $ 14 Trillion Trillion

27 Andasol projects/ week for 50 yrs!

At present rate of E demand – need 270

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At present rate of E demand need 270 CMO by 2050!

Predicted global energy use in CMO under 4 different scenarios

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Crane, H.D., E. M. Kinderman & R. Malhotra. 2010. A cubic mile of oil. Realities and options for averting the looming global energy crisis. Oxford University Press, New York, 297 pp. http://www.oup.com/us/companion.websites/9780195325546/?view=usa

Global change & clim ate ( 6 ) Lack of unified & binding commitment to UNFCCC process commitment to UNFCCC process does not mean lack of action…

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The top ten countries leading investm ent in clean energy technologies gy g

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[Pew Charitable Trusts. 2010. The clean energy economy. China Leads G-20 Members in Clean Energy Finance and Investment.

http://www.pewglobalwarming.org/cleanenergyeconomy/pr_24mar2010.html

Som e elem ents of a solution No silver bullet (no single solution) Mi f h d d Mix of approaches needed Efficiency and conservation very very important Transition from fossil fuels with focus

• n renewables & efficiency, CCS, +/-

nuclear WWF 2011: possible to (mostly) replace fossil fuels with renewables

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replace fossil fuels with renewables by 2050... without nuclear or CCS

The past contribution of energy efficiency

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Segar, C. 2009. International energy co-operation and global energy security. International Energy Agency (IEA). Session on “Ensuring the sustainability of energy supply chain”, Conference on Strengthening Energy Security in the OSCE area, Bratislava, 6 – 7 July 2009. PowerPoint presentation. http://www.osce.org/documents/eea/2009/07/38666_en.pdf

Energy efficiency w ill have m ajor role to play in achieving low C future ( I EA) p y g ( )

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• IEA. 2010. World Energy Outlook 2010. N. Tanaka, Executive Director, IEA, Beijing, 17 Nov. 2010. PowerPoint presentation. 35 slides.

http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf

The rise of the m achines … I CTs & related trends & innovations ( 1 ) related trends & innovations ( 1 ) Digitization & dematerialization Digitization & dematerialization Microprocessors

ARM vs Intel Handhelds vs desk/lap tops

Internet diffusion IPv6 IPv6 Broadband Clo d comp ting

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Cloud computing

A sam ple telepresence session

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[

I CT & related trends & innovations ( 2 ) Nanotechnology & micro-electro- mechanical systems (MEMS) mechanical systems (MEMS) Wireless & mobile device uptake Web 2.0 & 3.0

Agenda 21 redux: Everyone is a user and provider of content (information)

Innovations in display technology

Gorilla glass, Dragontrail, etc. massive increase in display surface area

Havana, Cuba, 8-9 February 2011 25

I CT & related trends & innovations( 3 ) The Internet of Things (IOT)

Everything and everywhere connected Everything and everywhere connected

Sensor technology

Sensor networks

Social networking Improved & greener batteries GIS & visualization technologies such GIS & visualization technologies such as building information modeling (BIM)

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(BIM)

I CTs enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by ( 1 ) : co se at o by ( ) Process efficiency

Doing things fast Doing things fast Use less energy emit less C

C i hi Connecting everything:

Instrumenting objects and places d Th I f Thi around us: The Internet of Things

Measuring everything:

The Internet of Things More info on energy use

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I CTs enhance efficiency & facilitate conservation by ( 2 ) : co se at o by ( ) Controlling everything

Smart controls Smart controls Connect & control all motors & energy consumption (embedded controls) consumption (embedded controls)

More options to reduce consumption: sma t g id b ildings logistics smart grid, buildings, logistics /transport & cities

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The negative im pact of I CTs

• n GHG em issions
• G

G e ss o s E ti f i ICT Energy consumption from using ICTs

About 2-3 % of total emissions, growing t 6 % to 6 % Same as aviation industry PC & i h l PCs & peripherals Telecoms infrastructure Data centres ICT use is increasing and so are GHG f C

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emissions from ICTs

How to m easure I CT im pacts – the need for standards eed

• sta

da ds ITU working on standards for environmental impact assessment environmental impact assessment (EIA) of ICTs

Telecommunication Standardization Telecommunication Standardization Advisory Group (TSAG)

ITU Study Group 5 (SG-5) ITU Study Group 5 (SG 5)

Standards for measuring impact of ICTs Universal power adapter and charger Universal power adapter and charger solution for mobile terminals and other ICT devices

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The positive im pact of I CTs

• n GHG em issions
• G

G e ss o s ICT enabling effects

ICTs can save 5 times as much C as ICTs can save 5 times as much C as they consume – but likely much more Essential for enhanced earth Essential for enhanced earth

• bservation

In poorer countries and areas: In poorer countries and areas:

Enhance reach of services Reduce cost of service delivery Reduce cost of service delivery Decreased energy use for accessing services

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I CTs for earth observation Remote sensing:

Disaster risk reduction (tsunami etc ) Disaster risk reduction (tsunami, etc.) Generates massive amounts of data D t il bl th h Cl d / G id Data available through Cloud / Grid (GEOSS, etc.)

Wi l t k Wireless sensor networks

The Internet of Things Connected smart sensors gathering data at earth’s surface (& below!)

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Trends: the I nternet of Things ( 1 ) 87 million embedded mobile M2M connections last year connections last year

… will reach 428 million by 2014

E b dd d SIM d i bil Embedded SIM cards in mobile phones / smartphones:

Allow users direct control over their connections: ability to select carrier networks of choice bypassing MNOs networks of choice, bypassing MNOs, Allow to connect to the Internet of Things without MNO

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Things without MNO.

Trends: the I nternet of Things ( 2 ) Global revenues from IOT:

30 x higher than the Internet in the 30 x higher than the Internet in the smart transportation sector alone (Forrester Research) (Forrester Research)

Governments have made significant investments in IOT: EU Japan investments in IOT: EU, Japan, South Korea, China, USA I Chi f IOT ill In China: revenues from IOT will reach 750 billion RMB (USD 112 billion) b 2015

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billion) by 2015

Trends: the I nternet of Things ( 3 ) The number of devices connected to the Internet: > 5 billion @ Aug 2010 the Internet: > 5 billion @ Aug. 2010 In an online presentation, an IBM h t th t th ill b researcher reports that there will be a trillion Internet connected devices b 2011 by 2011 A VP at Ericsson predicted that “50 billion connected devices are coming to cellular networks in the next

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decade”

Trends in the developm ent of the I nternet

• f Things

g

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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5a/Internet_of_Things.png

Num ber of com puting units shipped over tim e

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Braathe, E. 2010. Internet of Things and cloud computing. May 2010. RFID and the Internet of Things - Are you ready? International Workshop – 10-11 May, Oslo, Norway. http://www.rfid- rnet.com/Presentations_11_May_2010/E_Braathe_IBM_Workshop_IoT_Oslo_11_May_2010.pdf

Grow th in data ( exabytes) over tim e as a result of the I oT

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Braathe, E. 2010. Internet of Things and cloud computing. May 2010. RFID and the Internet of Things - Are you ready? International Workshop – 10-11 May, Oslo, Norway. http://www.rfid- rnet.com/Presentations_11_May_2010/E_Braathe_IBM_Workshop_IoT_Oslo_11_May_2010.pdf

Korea's vision of the I nternet of Things ( 1 ) e e

• gs (

)

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Kim, Y.-W. 2009. Korean visions and policies for the Internet of Things. Presented on occasion of RFID Global Forum and the Internet of

• Things. CASAGRAS, EU Framework 7 Project.

http://www.rfidglobal.eu/page.asp?pageid=28&pagegroup=RFID%20Global&pagetitle=Final%20Conference%20Presentations

Korea's vision of the I nternet of Things ( 2 )

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Kim, Y.-W. 2009. Korean visions and policies for the Internet of Things. Presented on occasion of RFID Global Forum and the Internet of

• Things. CASAGRAS, EU Framework 7 Project.

http://www.rfidglobal.eu/page.asp?pageid=28&pagegroup=RFID%20Global&pagetitle=Final%20Conference%20Presentations

W ireless sensor netw orks ( W SNs -1 ) Tiny sensor “nodes” that collect & relay data to a network of similar relay data to a network of similar nodes

Each node: sensor microprocessor & Each node: sensor, microprocessor & transceiver (radio)

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W ireless sensor netw orks ( W SNs -2 ) Spatially distributed autonomous sensors sensors That cooperatively monitor physical &/ h i l t &/or chemical parameters:

T, P, sounds, vibration, motion Pollutants, gases,

Limited power Energy saving communication protocols

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p

Short range

W ireless sensor netw orks ( W SNs -3 ) Applications pp cat o s Homeland security M it i f t f Monitoring of space assets for potential and human-made threats in space, Ground based monitoring of both land and water Intelligence gathering for defense g g g Environmental monitoring Urban warfare

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Urban warfare

W ireless sensor netw orks ( W SNs -4 ) Applications pp cat o s Weather and climate analysis and prediction prediction Battlefield monitoring and ill surveillance Exploration of the Solar System and beyond Monitoring of seismic acceleration g Strain GPS data

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GPS data

W SNs are a hot subject

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Merret, G. V. and Y. K. Tan. 2010. Wireless Sensor Networks: Application Centric Design. Edited by Dr. Geoff V Merret and Dr. Yen Kheng Tan (Wireless Sensor Networks: Application Centric Design Edited by Dr. Geoff V Merret and Dr. Yen Kheng Tan (Editor-in-Chief)Editor-in- Chief). Published by InTech. Janeza Trdine 9, 51000 Rijeka, Croatia. http://www.intechopen.com/books/show/title/wireless-sensor- networks-application-centric-design

A com m ercially available sensor node from Libelium

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• Libelium. 2011. Waspmote – The sensor device for developers. 20110202. http://www.libelium.com/products/waspmote

Sensing applications ( com m ercial: Libelium )

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[Libelium. 2011. Sensor boards. 20110202 http://www.libelium.com/products/waspmote/sensors

I CT enabling effects: applications

Smart grids S t t t Smart motor systems Smart buildings Smart logistics and transportation systems y Virtual meetings and other forms of dematerialization, including travel dematerialization, including travel replacement, server virtualization.

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The enabling effect of I CTs ( GeSI : Global e-Sustainability I nitiative) ( y )

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The Climate group and GeSI. 2008. Smart 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age. 87 pp. http://www.smart2020.org/

Sm art grid com ponents ( 1 ) Home area networks (HANs) N t k f id it ti l Networks for wide area situational awareness (WASA) Enhanced substation supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems

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Sm art grid com ponents ( 2 ) Distributed generation monitoring and control systems and control systems Demand response and pricing t systems Charging systems for plug-in electric vehicles.

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Sm art grid Part of the Internet of energy (Germany) (Germany)

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The sm art grid

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Greenpeace and European Renewable Energy Council. 2010. Energy [ R] evolution: A Sustainable World Energy Outlook. 3rd edition 2010 world energy scenario. June 2010. 260 pp. http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/Energy-Revolution-A- Sustainable-World-Energy-Outlook/

Value proposal for the sm art grid according to ABB

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Sinha, S. 2010. Smart electricity efficient power for a sustainable world. ABB Group. Slide 11, PowerPoint presentation. Jul. 13, 2020. Presented at Arc Advisory Group. Eighth India Forum. Achieving Business Excellence through IT and Automation Solutions. July 14-17, 2010

• Hyderabad, India. http://www.arcweb.com/Events/ARC-India-Hyderabad-Forum-2010/Pages/Hyderabad-Forum-2010-Presentations.aspx

Future sm art grid

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[WWF. 2011. The energy report – 100 % renewable energy by 2050. 256 pp.

Sm art buildings ( 1 )

40 % of C emissions from buildings 70 % f l t i it ti 70 % of electricity consumption 75 % of human pop. live in cities

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Sm art buildings ( 2 )

Green design

Building information Modeling (BIM) Building information Modeling (BIM)

Instrumenting buildings:

HVAC, power consumption, etc. with smart motors, sensors and actuators

Connecting all motor driven systems to a network of sensors and control devices

Improve air quality

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Reduce energy consumption

BI M applied to the 2 nd tallest bldg in the w orld: Shanghai Tow er g

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Tower

Shanghai Tow er Consider the Shanghai Tower

632 metres 632 metres 128 stories C t i f 380 000 2 Contains an area of 380,000 m2 Tallest building in China d ll h ld Second tallest in the world.

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Shanghai Tow er The tower will be organized as nine cylindrical buildings stacked atop cylindrical buildings stacked atop each other, enclosed by the glass façade's inner layer façade s inner layer Between that and the outer layer, hi h t i t it i i i d which twists as it rises, nine indoor zones will provide public space for i it visitors

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Shanghai Tow er The design of the glass façade is described to be able to reduce wind described to be able to reduce wind loads on the building by 24%

Meaning less construction materials are Meaning less construction materials are needed

The twisting feature will collect The twisting feature will collect rainwater to be used for the tower's air conditioning and heating systems air conditioning and heating systems.

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Shanghai Tow er Wind turbines will generate power for the building the building The first super-tall (300 metres or t ll ) d bl ki b ildi i th taller) double-skin building in the world, acting much like a "thermos b ttl “ t i l t it d bottle,“ to insulate it and save energy Designed and built using BIM!

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BI M use Increasingly used everywhere Th US G l S i The US General Services Administration (GSA) responsible for ll b ildi i BIM l i f all buildings requires BIM analysis for all new buildings and retrofits Show Autodesk BIM video:

http://usa.autodesk.com/company/build ing-information-modeling/sustainability

• r here:

h //b l /G 6

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http://bit.ly/GL6Le

Benefits of sm art buildings

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The Climate group and GeSI. 2008. Smart 2020: Enabling the low carbon economy in the information age. 87 pp. & . OECD. 2009. Smart Sensor Networks: Technologies and Applications for Green Growth. Dec. 2009. OECD, Paris, 48 pp.

Sm art transportation ICTs “enable elements within the transportation system - vehicles transportation system - vehicles, roads, traffic lights, message signs, etc to become intelligent by etc., to become intelligent by embedding them with microchips and sensors and empowering them to sensors and empowering them to communicate with each other through wireless technologies through wireless technologies

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Sm art transportation

Advanced traveler information systems systems

Real time traffic information

Ad d t t ti Advanced transportation management systems Smart transportation pricing systems Advanced public transportation p p systems Smart vehicles (communications with

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Smart vehicles (communications with transportation system sensors, etc.)

Key technologies Global Positioning System (GPS) Sh t R C i ti Short Range Communications Wireless Networks Mobile Telephony Radiowave or Infrared Beacons Radiowave or Infrared Beacons Roadside Camera Recognition P b V hi l D i Probe Vehicles or Devices

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Technologies Associated w ith Real-Tim e Traffic I nform ation System s y

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Ezell, S. 2010. 2010. Explaining International IT Application Leadership: Intelligent Transportation Systems. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Washington, D.C. 58 pp. http://www.itif.org/publications/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent-transportation- systems

Japan’s Vehicle I nform ation and Com m unications System y

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Ezell, S. 2010. 2010. Explaining International IT Application Leadership: Intelligent Transportation Systems. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Washington, D.C. 58 pp. http://www.itif.org/publications/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent-transportation- systems

Tim e Losses Due to Traffic Congestion, Nationw ide, in Japan , p

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Ezell, S. 2010. 2010. Explaining International IT Application Leadership: Intelligent Transportation Systems. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Washington, D.C. 58 pp. http://www.itif.org/publications/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent-transportation- systems

South Korea’s National I ntelligent Transportation System ( I TS) Service p y ( )

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Ezell, S. 2010. 2010. Explaining International IT Application Leadership: Intelligent Transportation Systems. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. Washington, D.C. 58 pp. http://www.itif.org/publications/explaining-international-it-application-leadership-intelligent-transportation- systems

Conclusions

ICTs have a key role to play in instrumenting changes required to instrumenting changes required to abate climate change M t d i i k d t Most decision makers do not understand role that ICTs play ICT players need to influence UNFCCC process Need to make clear role of ICTs

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Recom m endations ( 1 )

Trinidad and Tobago & others need to remain aware of opportunities to remain aware of opportunities

Rate the needs and match with the technologies technologies Think strategically about how these technologies can help & then test technologies can help & then test, demonstrate, showcase, communicate and share and mainstream Look at impacts & benefits

IOT and related will benefit mobile network

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• perators

Recom m endations ( 1 )

T&T needs to remain involved:

UNFCCC & related processes UNFCCC & related processes Regional venues Lik t k (AOSIS t ) Like networks (AOSIS, etc.) Govts of China, India, Brazil, etc. f Large ICT firms:

Google, HP, Cisco, IBM, Microsoft, Baidu, GSMA etc GSMA, etc.

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Related info ( 1 )

Much of this presentation can be found in the ITU publication by Richard Labelle: the ITU publication by Richard Labelle: “m-environment – ICTs for abating climate change and promoting Green Growth and sustainable development” which will be available online from the ITU site in – April M 2011

• May 2011.

The report will be published online by ITU and includes detailed references supporting all includes detailed references supporting all points made above.

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Related info ( 2 )

A training program on ICTs for abating climate change and promoting Green climate change and promoting Green Growth and sustainable development

To be offered by the UN APCICT (Asia Pacific centre for ICT Training) in Korea As part of the Academy for ICT Essentials for Government Leaders Government Leaders

http://www.unapcict.org/academy

Starting Feb.22, 2011 g , Will be published online: detailed report, , accompanying PPTs D t il d PPT h b d d

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Detailed PPTs have been prepared and were used in part for this presentation.

Thank you! Thank you!

Richard Labelle rlabtag@gm ail.com rlab@sym patico.ca Tw itter com / rlabelle

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Tw itter.com / rlabelle

I EA estim ate of renew able and other pow er technology investm ents for low est GHG em issions

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[IEA. 2010. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Lisbon, 21 October 2010.

http://www.renewable.pt/pt/Noticias/Documents/2010_Nobuo_Tanaka.pdf

I EA: Key technologies for reducing CO2 em issions under the BLUE Map scenario p

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[IEA. 2010. Energy Technology Perspectives 2010. Scenarios & strategies to 2050. Executive Summary. OECD/IEA, Paris, 20 pp.

http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/etp2010sum.pdf