The reproduction of the crisis and the pressures of the urban spaces - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The reproduction of the crisis and the pressures

• f the urban spaces

Crossed tensions and intensions on the changing dynamics of the political spaces in Lisbon

João Seixas ICS / CML, Lisbon Thanks to Simone Tulumello, Susana Corvelo, Ana Drago and António Guterres

International Seminar

‘Nation-states crises, austerity and cities transformation in Europe’

IGOT, Lisbon 20 February 2014

The reproduction of the crisis and the pressures of the political spaces in Lisbon

Structure of the presentation

The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 1

Urban tendencies since 2008

The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 2 Institutional, civic and political changes since 2008 Political spaces for a new urbanity

Research questionings and possible sociopolitical paths

Cities and Urban Condition in Europe in 2014

1987 2002

Cities and Urban Condition in Europe in 2014

(data: INE)

Grande Lisboa Peninsula de Setúbal

buildings sales contracts (Nr and K€)

500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 4.500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2.000.000 4.000.000 6.000.000 8.000.000 10.000.000 12.000.000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

(data: INE)

 The triple crash of the urbanization economies: the European crisis, the austerity pressures, the differentiated spatial impacts, the new exclusions… and the cities  The rise of the Austerity States: finantial / non-public driven / priorities  The place of the City as macro-inductor: of consumption, of (re)production, of knowledge, of sustainability, of quality of life… and of rights, of inequalities, of citizenship and of politics: the POLIS, again? Through radically different forms?  The New political Culture: between tensions and intensions. The reinvention of political action in the city: In what directions, how and with whom?

Cities and Urban Condition in Europe in 2014

1

The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 1

Urban tendencies since 2008

• A. Economy
• B. Society
• C. Demography

migration flows construction and real estate public transport management and use inequalities mortgage/rent insolvency (un)employment Economic activity

URBAN DIAGNOSYS, PART 1

Analytical dimensions Themes and indicators

The crisis: part 1 (2008-2010) and part 2 (2010 to date)

ECONOMY AND SOCIETY employment

2008-2013

Less 180.000 employed persons in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area Continuous drop since 2008, with deeper impact

• n 2011 onwards

Source: Eurostat/ INE

1.050 1.100 1.150 1.200 1.250 1.300 1.350 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

(data: INE)

employment rate

Total employment

ECONOMY AND SOCIETY unemployment

2008-2013 Unemployment rate more than doubled in Lisbon Metropolitan Area Youth unemployment rate in Lisbon Metropolitan Area

• ver 40% since 2012

Employment Rate

(data: Eurostat and INE)

5 10 15 20 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Portugal Lisboa e Vale do Tejo 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Youth (15-24)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Lisbon 8.4 7.9 9.2 10.6 13.9 16.9 17.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Lisbon 16.9 18.2 18.1 22.7 32.1 41.4 42.4

Unemployment growth is way steeper since 2011 bailout

178.432 154.000 234.371 182.700 96.377 77.146 28.446 24.098 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Passengers in public transports in LMA, by modes of transport (nº), 2008-2012

subway bus urban train ferry 201,13 138,43 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Wage development, inflation, public transport fares, 2003-2012 (1999=100)

transport fares inflation wage

SOCIETY Use of public transport

2008-2012 lost of 100 millions of passengers in public transport system in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area Cut-backs in public metropolitan transport offer and significant fare increases (mostly 2011 onwards) 2010-2012

• lost of PT passengers: 23%
• transport fares rise: 24%

(data: INE)

SOCIETY Inequalities

0,0 20,0 40,0

Total Empregados Desempregados Reformados Outros inactivos

Portugal Espanha

0,0 20,0 40,0

Total Homem só Mulher só

• Fam. monoparentais
• Fam. s/crianças
• Fam. c/crianças

Portugal Espanha

Poverty risk population (after social transfers)

Portugal and Spain (% of group total population, December 2012)

• 25,3% of total population

in poverty risk / social exclusion

• 20,1% after social

transfers

• Positive evolution till 2009
• Negative evolution after

2009

• Spatial patterns of poverty:

‘Classical’ territorial guettization combined with ‘new’ fractal patterns

From 2010 onwards, inversion of trends:

• Immigration flow falls drastically (2012:

half of 2009)

• Emigration rises (2012: 3x 2009)

…not so attractive anymore

• 17757

26661 14606 51958

• 30000
• 20000
• 10000

10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Immigration, emigration and natural balance (nº), 2007-2012

natural balance imigration emigration

DEMOGRAPHY Migration flows

(data: INE)

 There seems to be 2+1 considerably different crisis-impact phases: a) 2008-2010; b) 2010-present; c) Near future

• The first phase impacts strongly on the ‘Urbanisation Economies’

most dependent sectors and territories

• The second phase impacts widen throughout most of the urban

territories of AML. Namely on ‘social transfers’ poor classes, as well as on middle-classes and public employment.

• The third phase comes from the skills / demographic depression.

With which socio-spatial impacts?

• … the 2nd phase clearly including the austerity measures impacts,

mostly driven by nation-state / Troika

• … but also including local / urban reactions

 The present scenarios are considerably complex / incoherent: clearly needing deeper analysis: namely on the socio-spatial patterns

The crisis: urban diagnosis for Lisbon

2

The Lisbon city-region facing the crisis 2

Institutional, civic and political changes since 2008

• C. Urban Regimes
• A. Institutional

Structures

• B. Civil Society and

Citizenship

Urban politics/ Urban regimes: within vs. beyond the crisis

Urban politics part 2

Analytical dimensions Themes

Profiles of citizenship and civic participation National reforms Participatory instruments Local elections EU, national and local urban structures The political spaces of Lisbon Communities

• f power

Local reforms

PRESENT SITUATION FOR EUROPEAN URBAN POLICIES

 EU Starting an urban agenda: through divergent directions?  Nation-States Weak urban agendas  Metropolises Almost none agendas / non-existent at all  Cities Left alone?... With secular and present serious constraints  Neighborhoods Left alone?…

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES Local government capacitation

A Secular ‘Austerity Localism’

 Portugal is the second lower % of Sub-national public expenditure on EU ‘non-micro’ countries

DEXIA / CEMR 2012 (data 2010)

 Regions: 4,45%; Municipalities 10,11%; Parishes: 0,14%

 This status being followed by:

• Cuts of national transfers to local

governments (2010-2014)

• Economic crisis: reduction of local taxes

revenues

• 2013: new legislation  new limits to local

government borrowing

• 2018: suppression of municipal economic

and real estate taxes

Municipal budgets trends (revenues):

• Until 2010/2011 the trend was for generalized growth
• Since then, significative drops are mainly caused by cuts in national

transfers and reduced taxation revenues (with few exceptions, i.e. Lisbon – not in the graph – Cascais, Seixal)

(elaboration of authors)

INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES Local government capacitation

0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Barreiro Cascais Loures Mafra Odivelas Oeiras Palmela Seixal Vila Franca de Xira

LOCAL ELECTIONS Participation and main parties

30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 2005 2009 2013 PT Lisboa Setúbal 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 2005 2009 2013 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000 180.000 2005 2009 2013 left centre-left centre-right independend protest vote

voters Lisboa Setúbal

• Low levels of participation
• Reduction of voters and votes
• f main parties
• Increasing protest votes and

independent parties votes

(elaboration of authors on data DGAI)

CITIZENSHIP profiles of civic participation

QV em Lisboa Grau de Satisfação (positivo) (negativo) Segurança e Policiamento. Serviços de saúde.

• Oport. Emprego.

Segurança e Policiamento.

• Oport. Emprego.

Trânsito. Trânsito. Estacionamento.

• Recup. de

edfícios.

• Activ. culturais.

Estacionamento. Ruído.

• Activ. culturais.

Cafés/ restaur. Limpeza urbana. Trânsito. Qualidade do ar. Recuperação de edfícios. Estacionamento. Qualidade do ar. Cafés/ restaur. QV em Lisboa O que é mais urgente fazer

Economia/ Emprego. Mais segurança e policiamento. Trânsito, menos automóveis. Trânsito, menos automóveis. Melhores transportes.

Exposição aos media Confiança interpessoal Mobilização cognitiva Socialização política primária Socialização política secundária Iniciativa e resposta política Práticas de mobilização Associativismo Activismo urbano

15 % 15 % 14 % 14 % 9 % 33 %

Nulo. Muito reduzido Reduzido Médio Forte

Participação cívica nula Participação cívica passiva e activa Participação cívica muito reduzida

Citizenship and urbanity (Project enquiry in Lisbon-City and AML, June 2009)

• Socio-cultural Capital: A New

political culture is developing

• Mainly amongst most educated

and younger classes but widening in denser urban areas

• Still differences between

passive and active citizenship but relevant hints of a changing scenario (changing secular path-dependencies?)

ALTERNATIVE URBAN MOVEMENTS

Two main tendencies 1) Alternative Urban Life: Several collectively-run movements, providing differents approaches to city life: flea markets, popular canteens, free cycle-shops, producer-consumer food cooperatives, urban farming. 2) Pressures on welfare cuts: Social housing alternative supports, squatting by dwellers, community engagement on informal social security and benefit events.

ALTERNATIVE URBAN MOVEMENTS

Three examples of active organizations (social activists, students, community leaders) 1) HABITA: Advice and support dwellers against evictions without rehousing on shanty towns, and against rent´s rising in social housing. It also works as an

• bservatory.

2) PLATAFORMA GUETO: Provides assistance to families victims of police violence and other agorafobia trends, in several peripheral areas of Lisbon. Promotes immigration inclusion and analysis of laws & policies. Organizes workshops about civil rights and African history. 3) OBSERVATÓRIO DAS TRANSFORMAÇÕES ACELERADAS NA CIDADE DE LISBOA: Settled by artists and performers, it aims at showing with performances and spacial interventions the rapid change of Lisbon´s old neighborhoods.

• A. The Political-Administrative Restructuring
• In municipal, neighborhood and fiscal scales/dimensions
• New political activity towards Metropolitan empowerment
• B. Urban Regeneration
• Cornerstones of the New Lisbon-city Masterplan Plan: much more investor friendly;

several fiscal and edification incentives for regeneration projects

• Investment priority in Public Space and old neighborhoods (support of EIB funding)
• C. Social Cohesion, Grassroots Planning and Social Innovation
• Participatory Budget and Local 21 Agenda
• Rent supporting schemes
• BIP-ZIP a local partnership Program with participatory methodologies and

sustainable interventions in damaged neighborhoods

• D. Urban entrepreneurship support
• Public policies towards business incubators, start-ups, young entrepreneurs

networking and micro-entrepreneurship

• Incentives to new businesses and support of retail initiatives

POLITICAL SPACES Political power pressures in Lisboa

LISBON-CITY ANTI-CRISIS PROPOSALS (Since 2011)

 There are two very different drivers of urban politics restructuring in Lisbon: a) Nation-State/Troika and UE1 political reactions; b) UE2 and Local/urban political actions and reactions

• The austerity curtails: Nation-State re-centralised options; clear

divergences and growing clashes

• The urban evolution: Some local reforms (slowly shifting urban

regimes); with (seemingly) Europe 2020 support

• Community / alternative civic pressures on both dimensions

 Are some local governments / communities developing a differentiated narrative?

• Or… on the growing metropolitan socio-spatial fractalisation, there

also develops a growing sociopolitical fractalisation?  The construction of new URBAN EQUITY/QUALITY politics, in the midst

• f a huge crisis and posterior curtails: What possible forms of

consolidation? Through which political spaces?

The crisis: Political changes in Lisbon

3

Political spaces for a new urbanity

Research questionings and possible sociopolitical paths

The changing dynamics of the Political Spaces in Lisbon

Between explosions and implosions

URBAN IMPACTS OF THE CRISIS PART 1 URBAN IMPACTS OF THE CRISIS PARTS 2+3 URBAN POLITICAL CHANGES Austerity Pressures URBAN POLITICAL CHANGES Urban Evolution  Which pressures the deepest?  Which political changes the strongest?

EQUITY HABITATS CONSUMPTIONS MOBILITIES KNOWLEDGE CAPACITATIONS CITIZENSHIPS INTENSITIES CONECTIVITIES METABOLISMS

New Geographies New Social Structures / Social Needs New Political Governance

THE URBAN LIFE / THE URBAN FABRIC

Between explosions and implosions

 The city as a socio-political construction

• The ‘two systems’ retro-feeding themselves: both in its strengths and in its

derives.

• Retro-feeding now through new ‘fractalities’ and ‘differentiations’: both in

territories as well as in politics.  A new paradigm in societies, economies and territories

• Under huge stress in the large metropoles of the South of Europe.
• Taking to the need of strong sociopolitical restructuring.
• Bridging individual and collective intelligence, qualifying public policies,

political representation… and civic manifestation.

The reconfiguration of the urban sociopolitical spaces

The crossroads of European cities under crisis

Find coherence between THREE VITAL ELEMENTS Between convictions and uncertainties Between eco-urban and anti-urban pressures Between principles and dynamics

• A. Citizenship: Participation and Indignation
• B. Knowledge: stronger combination between theory and practice
• C. Political Spaces: the capacity to generate and dynamize politics

The changing dynamics of the Political Spaces in Lisbon

Between explosions and implosions

A RESEARCHED-BASED URBAN AGENDA

The impacts and way-outs of the crisis on the DIFFERENT European urban fabrics (3+2 main dimensions): 1. The (re)production of the crisis: the (varied) origins. 2. The (varied) patterns: socio-spatial; in times and in scales. 3. The (varied) politics/policies: political cultures and regimes; subsidiarity patterns; governance capacities. 4. The production of reactions / of responses: the redesign of the political spaces of SE/EU urbanity.

• Towards resilience;
• … or towards structural changes

5. A specific Southern European urban research/ agenda?

Thank You for your attention João Seixas jseixas@ics.ul.pt

Also thanks to Simone Tulumello, Susana Corvelo, Ana Drago and António Guterres