The Nuclear Option Increasing our chances of surviving climate change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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The Nuclear Option Increasing our chances of surviving climate change - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 03, 2023 255 likes •437 views

The Nuclear Option Increasing our chances of surviving climate change and meeting the worlds energy needs Eric Ingersoll Founder, Energy Options Network Managing Partner, LucidCatalyst We are appear to be aiming for 5 o C 2 2 Degrees:

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The Nuclear Option

Increasing our chances of surviving climate change and 
 meeting the world’s energy needs

Eric Ingersoll Founder, Energy Options Network Managing Partner, LucidCatalyst

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We are appear to be aiming for 5oC

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2 Degrees: In our dreams!
 We are not on any of these paths

Assumptions:

  • Air capture is needed for 50% of required negative emissions
  • Capture, compression and disposal requires ~250kWh/tonne
  • 10GtCO2/yr would require over 300 GW of baseload nuclear plants. 


Delaying significant emissions reductions increases required negative emissions

Implications:

  • The risk of failure to

decarbonize looks unacceptably high

  • We need to radically improve

the chances of success

  • Re-examination of our energy

technology preferences and risk prioritization is necessary

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Carbon Intensity of Electricity (1990-2014)

Chart Source: Clean Air Task Force, from International Energy Agency data 4

But wait—countries with predominantly nuclear electricity
 generation have already achieved very low levels of carbon intensity

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Source: EFH European Climate Leadership Report 2017, page 61

…and they achieved it very quickly

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Maybe the most dangerous nuclear plant— is the one that isn’t built

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But nuclear is too expensive—or is it?

Average Score

  • 2.0
  • 1.5
  • 1.0
  • 0.5

0.0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 $1,500 /kW $3,500 /kW $5,500 /kW $7,500 /kW $9,500 /kW $11,500 /kW $13,500 /kW

Source: https://www.eti.co.uk/library/the-eti-nuclear-cost-drivers-project-summary-report

30 Recently Completed Plants

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$0 /kW $4,500 /kW $9,000 /kW $13,500 /kW $18,000 /kW

Sizewell B NE Sizewell C (Single Reactor) NE Sizewell C (Twin Reactors)

Nuclear Steam Supply System Civil Other mechanical Turbines Control & instrumentation Electrical Construct and commission Sofuware Nuclear Steam Supply System Civil Other mechanical Turbines Control & instrumentation Electrical Construct and commission Sofuware

30% reduction in

  • vernight costs from

Sizewell B to Nuclear Electric’s proposal for Sizewell C (single reactor) Savings based on contractually-bound estimates ~20 month improvement in construction schedule

Learnings from Sizewell B to Sizewell C

Cost Reduction Trajectory at Sizewell B and Nuclear Electric’s proposal for Sizewell C

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Barakah, Abu Dhabi 5,400 MW (4 x 1,400MW PWR)

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  • A comprehensive “lessons learned”

study informed RfP and bidding process

  • Owner-led process that

encouraged/imposed best practices in key aspects of project delivery

  • Commitment to 4-unit purchase
  • Same contractors and suppliers

(building on successful deliveries in Korea)

  • Vendor allowed to optimize

process/ sequence, build continuously, maintain skills and experience

  • 40% reduction in labor costs

from unit 1 to unit 2

  • No demobilization between

units (moving people from unit to unit without lag)

Barakah (UAE): benefits of a multi-unit program

Extrapolation of Cost Reduction at Barakah Units 1 – 4 ($20.4B)

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Is it possible to organize significant cost reduction in a large industry?

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UK Offshore Wind (50% price drop over 2 years*)

  • Gov’t-supported “Offshore Renewables Catapult” funds R&D projects aimed at cost reduction

through innovation and de-risking technology to lower financings costs

  • Relentless focus on cost reduction innovations by developers

10 20 30 40 50 60 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Installed, GW Cost of Energy, £/MWh

Offshore Wind Cost of Energy

Increase in Regional energy strategies, societal engagement in decarbonisation, etc. Central gov. role in supporting regular build of new power plants, decarbonisation, etc. Cost of Electricity (Upper) Cost of Electricity (Lower)

Offshore Wind Cost of Energy PPAs signed in 2017 UK’s Offshore Renewable Catapult

  • Funded >150

collaborative R&D projects

  • Tests, demonstrates,

de-risks, and validates latest technologies

  • Partnerships with 52

academic institutions

* The CFDs were half the price of contracts awarded in the last UK offshore wind tender in February 2015.

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The UK took a very comprehensive approach

  • Multiple projects 

  • All areas of cost
  • Careful monitoring
  • Clear incentives
  • Auction model
  • Would a similar 


approach work for nuclear?

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Cost reduction is critical to 
 climate/development success What if we engaged with the nuclear industry as constructively and as persistently as we have with wind and solar? Maybe the nuclear industry we have isn’t the one we need to help solve climate? What if we applied successful renewables policies—to nuclear?

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