The Next Decade Trends in Domestic Leisure Tourism Phil Evans - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Next Decade Trends in Domestic Leisure Tourism Phil Evans Head of Policy and Insight VisitEngland is the national tourist board for England, responsible for marketing England to domestic and established overseas markets and for
Trends in Domestic Leisure Tourism
The Next Decade
Phil Evans Head of Policy and Insight
VisitEngland is the national tourist board for England, responsible for marketing England to domestic and established overseas markets and for improving England's tourism product
It is an ‘arm’s length body’ funded through a Government grant
£18.7 £46.0 £18.4 Tourism Spend in England 2013 (£bn)
Domestic Overnight Domestic Day Trips Inbound (est.)
Source: GBTS 2013, GBDVS 2013, IPS 2013
Total tourism spending in England in 2013 was c.£83bn
2013), there were 88,000 domestic overnight trips to the area (66,000 of which were for holiday trips), generating a spend of £35m
Today’s objectives
Introduction
determining the future of domestic leisure tourism
understanding and planning for these trends
Today’s agenda
and implications for local businesses (in groups)
Introduction
Demographic Trends
‘Squeezed Middle’ Generation
65-79s +11.2% 80+ +19.2% Under 18s +10% 18-34s +1.2% 35-49s
50-64s +10.5%
More younger people More older people Fewer ‘squeezed middle’
Source: ONS Population prospects
Demographic Changes 2013-2020
The Vertical Family
Rising life expectancy has coincided with an historically low fertility rate – which has had a profound impact on family structure This has particular implications for accommodation, as families are likely to go away with more adults (including grandparents) and fewer children
Untraditional Families
Higher levels of divorce and remarriage, an increase in the age of childbirth and greater social liberalism are all creating new types of families – far removed from the traditional image of the Nuclear Family. Across the Tourism sector, businesses need to be agile to sharply varying expectations, needs and demands caused by a huge array of different family types and shapes
Changing Socio-Ethnic Profile
The social profile of the UK is changing rapidly – the last census revealed that over 13%
Immigrants’ tourism behaviour traditionally differs to others,
economic, cultural and labour market conditions
6.1% 6.6% 7.3% 8.9% 13.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
% of people in England and Wales born outside the UK
Source: UK Census, 2011
Economic Trends
The downturn is almost over
Economic recovery
Q4 2014
Source: ONS/Trajectory
The ‘lost decade’ spurs a range of consumer reactions
Economic Stagnation
Few changes (47%) Small adjustments to existing lifestyle
Shopping around (19%) Saving money, collecting loyalty points, comparing prices Cutting back (13%) As shopping around + No annual holiday, socialising at home, second hand clothing Drawing down (11%) Stopping paying into pension, using savings to pay bills All strategies (10%) Many across groups + getting into debt to pay essentials ... wholesale lifestyle changes Minor changes to shopping habits...
Source: Which?/ Trajectory Consumer 2012 Report
Discretionary Thrift 61% 55% 56% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18-34 35-54 55+
‘I like to find bargains, even when I don’t need to save the money’
across all areas of spending – even when they don’t strictly need to
money saving strategies – from vouchers to comparing prices
saving money – including the feeling of ‘getting something back’ mean that as long as it remains convenient, consumers will continue to choose to save money into recovery
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-13
Mercurial Consumption
Price Consciousness creates agile shoppers
Over the course of the downturn, consumers have become less loyal to brands and more likely to shop around – choosing on price rather than brand affinity
say buying trusted brands is important to them
say getting the cheapest price is important to them
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2013
Value Hunters 62% 54% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18-34 35-54 55+
Getting the cheapest price is important to me’
As recessionary pressures have forced many to cut back on their spending, consumers are increasingly eager to employ money saving strategies One of the most common is using coupons, which since the start of the downturn have lost their stigma – now, just 4% of consumers say using a supermarket voucher is embarrassing More broadly, services such as Groupon or VoucherCodes (and many
to find bargains and save money
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-13
What does this mean for Holidays?
Economic Trends
Say they are spending less
Better off consumers are increasing their domestic spend – but poorer consumers are just cutting back altogether
Source: GBTS / VisitEngland Staycation Research
5 10 15 20
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (Est.) Domestic Holidays by Social Grade 2006-2013 (Est)
AB C1 C2 DE
2006 vs 2013 (est)
+30% +16% +8%
Implications and Summary
into an easy Nuclear Family model
indulge themselves at every opportunity with short breaks and treats
money saving strategies
switching to domestic tourism
Demographic & Economic Trends
Group exercise
and economic trends for the next decade?
respond now and in the longer term?
and CONTINUE doing?
Economics and Demographics
Information & Technology Trends
Internet Access & Usage 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Email Booking travel Banking
Social networking Instant messaging Playing games
18-34 35-54 55+ Practical activities – done by all Social activities – weighted towards under 35s With internet penetration in the UK approaching 100% of consumers, the key signifier is in how different people use the internet, rather than who One of the key differentiators is age – younger people (perhaps ‘digital natives’ ) are more likely to ‘live’ online, whereas older consumers see it as more of a practical tool
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2011-13
M&T Commerce
50% 16% 60% 28% 72% 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Owns smartphone Owns tablet 2011 2012 2013
One implication of rising mobile and tablet usage is the blurring line between portable use and home use Tablets and smartphones are ostensibly portable devices – but are often as powerful as traditional desktop computers Their range of uses has wide-ranging implications for the tourism industry – from booking online to contactless payments More portable devices (and the volume of activity on them) increase the likelihood
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Social Media
63% of people in England use social networking sites – including 84% of 18-34s The rapid spread of information online – often through social media – can have huge implications for the tourism sector Another implication of rising social media use is (often public) customer interaction
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Data and Privacy
Of internet users say that concerns over privacy or security limit the way they use the internet
Of internet users say slow connection speeds limit the way they use the internet
Concerns about the security of their personal information is one of the biggest barriers to increased internet use for consumers in England. But, where consumer data is used to personalise and enhance the user experience, consumers appreciate the convenience
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight 2013
FOMO (Fear of missing out)
FOMO The ease with which people can share their leisure activities with family or friends increases our exposure to different experiences People will become increasingly reluctant to miss out – and they won’t want their peers to be having more fun than they are This fits in with a longer term tendency of broadening leisure portfolios
Last Minute
People don’t want to miss out or compromise on their leisure time, but at the same time are keen to save money at every opportunity Their ability to do this is facilitated by technology, which allows them to research, compare and book holidays at the last minute Over half of all domestic breaks in 2012-13 were booked and taken in either the same or the following month
Source: GBTS
Implications and Summary
Information and Technology Trends
holidays – and what they expect while on holiday
increasingly central – and often the main channel for internet use
for venues and destinations
and catalyse desire for broader leisure portfolios and new experiences
switch off
and tourism sector
advice on user experiences
Consumer Trends
While total spending fell, spending on recreation and culture continued to rise
Play Society
15000 17000 19000 21000 23000 25000 27000 205000 210000 215000 220000 225000 230000
2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 Recreation and culture spending (£milllion) Household final consumption expenditure (£million)
Household final consumption expenditure Spending on recreation and culture 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 2005 Q1 2005 Q3 2006 Q1 2006 Q3 2007 Q1 2007 Q3 2008 Q1 2008 Q3 2009 Q1 2009 Q3 2010 Q1 2010 Q3 2011 Q1 2011 Q3 2012 Q1 2012 Q3
Spending on recreation and culture as a % of all spending Source: ONS, Consumer Spending 2012
Demand for Control and the Demand for Simplicity
Say they feel a high degree of freedom of choice and control
Say they feel under time pressure in their day to day lives
Source: Trajectory Global Foresight
Consumer choice has proliferated over the past few decades – leading to increased complexity This is particularly true for leisure activities – generally, people have more free time, but are also trying to cram more in – leading to increased time pressure The exponential increase in ‘information’ – driven by tech usage – is increasing complexity, as is the desire to save money and budget Consumers look for products or services that simplify this complexity and save time
Individualocracy Consumers increasingly desire more control over their experiences – one facet of this is the desire to personalise and customise them As leisure portfolios broaden and people try new things, the desire to ‘individualise’ them remains – from insider tips about destinations to less common destinations
Cultural Capital
Traditional forms of conspicuous consumption – owning to impress – have fallen in favour since the onset of the downturn - but people still look to define themselves through their consumer behaviour
Wealth Health
Thoughtless Spendthrifts ‘In the know’ Flair Care
Earn Discern
Decline of Deference
Consumers are less deferential to traditional sources of information – such as government or national institutions – and increasingly use new sources Some are mainstream – such as TripAdvisor, but others cater to specific requirements, such as Field Trip or Gravy, and rely on crowdsourced information or recommendations
CSR: From Green to Clean
Being ‘green’ is less important to consumers as the downturn has resulted in people feeling unable to afford wider concerns But consumers still have ethical values and standards – these have just shifted to boardroom practice, executive pay and supply chain management The importance of localism is also crucial here – adding authenticity and trust
Implications and Summary
Tech & Consumer Trends
holidays – and what they expect while on holiday
very highly and want to maximise the bang for their buck rather than miss
eroded by the protracted downturn
technology to deliver that
Group exercise
Consumer Trends – for the next decade?
and in the longer term?
CONTINUE doing?
What are the three most important implications from all the trends we’ve discussed today?
Technology and Consumer
Information Available to You
A report.... ...a website ...and an annotated presentation / workshop slides...
Resources
http://www.visitengland.org/insight-statistics/market-research/future_trends/index.aspx
Thank You Thank you