Perspectives on future Mobile Broadband: IMT for the Next Decade 1) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

2) New Developments 4) ITU-R Action, Next Steps

Perspectives on future Mobile Broadband: IMT for the Next Decade

1) IMT History 3) Market estimates

Sources: Presentation: Spectrum considerations for global broadband access; Colin Langtry, Chief, ITU-R Study Groups Dept.; Presentation: Introduction to ITU-R WP5D Regional Workshop (Region 3), Kyu-Jin WEE Ph.D, Vice-Chairman, ITU-R WP5D; http://groups.itu.int/rsg5-forum/SG5Portal/RegionalWorkshopsIMTfortheNextDecade/AsiaPacificWorkshop/Presentations.aspx

Radio history: Maxwell equation: 1865 Marconi radio communication: ~1900 Radio broadcasting: ~1920 TV broadcasting: ~1931 Satellite: 1957 Cellular mobile communication: ~1981

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IMT History

W(A)RC history:

WARC Mar Maritime Mobile Service (Geneva, 1967) WARC- 68 Aeronautical Mobile Service WARC-71 Space Telecommunications WMARC-74 World Maritime Administrative Radio Conference WARC SAT-77 World Broadcasting-Satellite Administrative Radio Conference WARC-Aer2 Aeronautical Mobile (R) Services (Geneva, 1978) WARC-79 Overall Revision of RR (Sep.24 – Dec. 6) WARC Mob-83 Mobile Service WARC HFBC-84 Planning HF Broadcasting WARC Orb-85 Geostationary Satellite Orbit WARC HFBE-87 HF Broadcasting WARC Mob-87 Mobile Service (Maritime and Aeronautical), Rec.205(FPLMTS) WARC-88 Geostationary Satellite Orbit WARC-92 IMT-2000(FPLMTS) WRC-95 Simplified Radio Regulations, Satellite WRC-97 Satellite systems, HAPS, HF Broadcasting WRC-2000 Additional IMT-2000 spectrum WRC-03 Satellite systems, GNSS, ESVs, HF WRC-07 IMT (IMT-2000 & IMT-Advanced)

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IMT History

• Over the last century, certain topics became

popular and were treated at WRCs;

• Most of them influenced economy and social

live significantly;

• There was a time for maritime, broadcasting

and satellite, cellular, …: now mobile broadband is the hot topic; 1

IMT History, observations

RESOLUTION ITU-R 56 Naming for International Mobile Telecommunications (2007)

• IMT-2000 Direct Spread

(WCDMA/UTRA FDD) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Multi Carrier

(CDMA2000) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Time Code

(UTRA TDD, TD-SCDMA) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Single Carrier TDMA

(UWC-136) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Frequency Time

(DECT+) (1999)

• IMT-2000 OFDMA TDD WMAN

(Mobile WiMAX) (2007)

• LTE-Advanced
• WirelessMAN-Advanced

ITU-R M.1457: Detailed specifications of the terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000)

ITU-R M.[IMT.RSPEC]

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IMT History Standards

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IMT History, IMT-Advanced

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IMT History, IMT Spectrum

• While voice traffic on mobile networks is

growing at a relatively constant rate, there is a very rapid increase in the volume of data traffic;

• This increase is being accelerated by the

introduction of new types of devices (smartphones, tablets and dongles) and new mobile applications; 2

New developments, challenges:

• The amount of spectrum identified for IMT

at WRC-07 did not meet the estimated (by ITU studies) amount of spectrum required by year 2020;

• Furthermore, it seems now that many of the

estimates done prior WRC-07 for mobile traffic were too conservative; 2

New developments, challenges:

• New type of devices, such as smart phones,

dongles, tablets;

• Mobile Internet usage is increasing;
• Huge increase in mobile applications;
• Video traffic is growing dramatically;

2

New developments, trends contributing to increased demand for mobile broadband:

• Several Policy initiatives to promote mobile

broadband;

• Cost reduction and price decrease;
• Media rich social networks go mobile;
• Machine-to-Machine traffic is growing

rapidly; 2

New developments, trends contributing to increased demand for mobile broadband:

Estimates for global mobile traffic 2010 - 2015

1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Traffic (Terabytes/Month)

Cisco Alcatel-Lucent ABI Research (2011) iDate/UM TS Forum Analysys M ason Informa Telecoms & M edia Yankee Group Coda Research M organ Stanley Averages

Discrepancies in forecasts partly attributable to differing assumptions on Wi-Fi offloading

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Market estimates indicate strong growth:

Estimates for global mobile traffic 2010 - 2020

2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 2,010 2,015 2020 Total Traffic (Terabytes/month)

Cisco Alcatel-Lucent ABI Research (2011) iDate/UMTS Forum Analysys Mason Averages

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Market estimates indicate strong growth:

Estimates prior WRC-07

Global estimate for Global estimate for “ “total world traffic total world traffic” ”

• done at year 2005

(Figure 16 from ITU-R M.2072)

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2 000 000 1 800 000

One country estimate in ITU One country estimate in ITU-

• R M.2072 for

R M.2072 for “ “Representative Western Eur country traffic Representative Western Eur country traffic” ”

• done at year 2005

2 800 000 2 600 000 2 400 000 2 200 000 2 000 000 1 800 000

From CISCO report (Feb 2011) for year 2010:

237 petabytes/month= 237 000 terabytes/month= 2,844,000 terabytes/year

FACTUAL FACTUAL mobile mobile data traffic at data traffic at year 2010 year 2010

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Many of the estimates prior WRC-07 were too conservative

Many of the estimates prior WRC-07 were too conservative

Country Date Mobile broadband traffic per day Sweden 2009 61 MB Finland 2H 2009 61 MB Hungary June 2010 45 MB Denmark 2H 2009 43 MB Austria Q4 2009 42 MB Ireland Q1 2010 42 MB Iceland 2H 2009 31 MB Estonia Q1 2010 18 MB Croatia 22 2010 16 MB Slovak n/a 15 MB Germany 2009 4.8 MB Netherlands 2H 2009 2.3 MB Malta Q1 2010 0.5 MB GSMA/Telia Sonera November 2010 12 MB (average smartphones) 167 MB (3G modem) 500 MB (LTE user) ITU-R M.2072 (UMTS Forum) Estimates from 2005 Estimate for 2012 28 MB Estimate for 2020 495 MB

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FACTUAL info of mobile data traffic collected by ECC PT1

• Many involved parties (governments,
• perators, manufacturers, researchers) have

analyzed the available data; 4

ITU-R Action, Next Steps:

• All involved parties have realized, that the

gap between estimated and real figures is tremendous;

• It is widely known, that there is a long lead

time involved in:

• identifying suitable spectrum at the

international level;

• making the spectrum available at the

national level, and:

• actual system deployment;

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ITU-R Action, Next Steps:

IMT Spectrum cycles (terrestrial):

WARC-92 WRC-2000 WRC-2007 WRC-20xy 7-8 years 7-8 years 7-8 years 2 GHz 800-900 MHz, 1.8 GHz, 2.6 GHz 450-470 MHz, 600-700 MHz, 2.3 GHz, 3.5 GHz

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• ITU-R has commenced work on a new ITU-R

Report “Analysis and assessment of global broadband wireless services and marketplace for IMT”;

• ITU-R is holding a series of ITU regional

workshops in the year 2011 to support this work; 4

ITU-R Action, Next Steps:

The new ITU-R Report and the workshops intend to:

• refreshing the vision and market forecasts

for IMT from 2003/2005;

• assessing the current perspectives of the future

needs of mobile broadband wireless for 2012-2022;

• address the possible evolution of the IMT-Advanced

technologies;

• Develop new traffic forecasts for the period from

2012-2022;

• Provide a sound basis of market and traffic figures

for further work in ITU-R;

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ITU-R Action, Next Steps:

ITU Regions, regional Organisations:

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http://groups.itu.int/Default.aspx?tabid=1477

ITU-R Webpage has been set up for the workshops:

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ITU-R Action, Next Steps: