1 October 18, 2010
Roger Agnelli
Chief Executive Officer
The journey to sustainable value creation October 18, 2010 1 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Roger Agnelli Chief Executive Officer The journey to sustainable value creation October 18, 2010 1 Disclaimer This presentation may include declarations about Vale's expectations regarding future events or results. All declarations based
1 October 18, 2010
Chief Executive Officer
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“This presentation may include declarations about Vale's expectations regarding future events or results. All declarations based upon future expectations, rather than historical facts, are subject to various risks and
be correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors related to the following: (a) the countries where Vale operates, mainly Brazil and Canada; (b) the global economy; (c) capital markets; (d) the mining and metals businesses and their dependence upon global industrial production, which is cyclical by nature; and (e) the high degree of global competition in the markets in which Vale operates. To obtain further information on factors that may give rise to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM), the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF), and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including Vale’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20F and its reports on Form 6K.”
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5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 US$
¹ VALE – the ADR representative of our common shares - started trading on the NYSE on Wednesday, March 20, 2002
VALE P
June 2 0 , 2 0 0 0 October 1 2 , 2 0 1 0
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2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 ,0 0 0 1 ,2 0 0 1 ,4 0 0 1 ,6 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0
VALE P MSCI m etals & m ining MSCI W orld
June 2 0 , 2 0 0 0 October 1 2 , 2 0 1 0 100
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010E 2015E
Developed Econom ies Em erging Econom ies
Sources: Vale and IMF
Real GDP grow th % annual Convergence
Convergence
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5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Emerging Economies Developed Economies
Steel consumption intensity
metric tons / US$ million of real GDP
Source: World Steel Association, WBMS, IMF and Vale
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Iron Ore Nickel Copper
Share of emerging economies in global consumption of metals
10 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Brazil Korea China I ndia
Urbanization rate
%
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, “World Urbanization Prospects: the 2009 revision”.
10 20 30 40 50 60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
China W orld
Urbanization rate
%
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F = Target Sources: NBS, NDRC, CAAC and Ministry of Transport of China
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Passenger cars per 1,000 people 2002
Sources: University of Sheffield, UK and CEIC
3 6 9 5 1 0 7 1 2 0 1 3 2 2 0 5 4 2 8 4 6 4 4 8 1 World Mexico Brazil Russia Korea Japan Western Europe US
China 2008
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Mineral exploration Mineral Mineral exploration exploration Greenfield projects Greenfield Greenfield projects projects Acquisitions Acquisitions Acquisitions Brow nfield projects Brow nfield Brow nfield projects projects Maxim izing asset perform ance Maxim izing Maxim izing asset asset perform ance perform ance
Existing assets Existing assets New assets New assets Shareholder Value Shareholder Value
Portfolio m anagem ent Portfolio Portfolio m anagem ent m anagem ent
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Iron ore & pellets Nickel Coal Copper Phosphates & Potash Logistics Energy Steel
Brow nfield Greenfield
2010 2012
2011 2013 2014
Reference
US$ 1 billion Onça Puma Conceição Itabiritos Carajás Additional 30 Mtpy Teluk Rubiah Salobo Tubarão VIII Estreito Oman Bayovar Karebbe Long-Harbour Serra Sul (S11D) Rio Colorado Moatize Totten Apolo Biofuel Konkola North Carajás Additional 20 Mtpy Tres Valles Vargem Grande Itabiritos Salobo II CSA¹ ALPA² CSP² CSU² ¹ Total project capex. Vale has a stake of 26.87%. ² Total project capex. Vale’s investment depends on its final stake in the project
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Cristalino Paulo Afonso Furnas Alemão Salobo III Polo Kalumines 118 Neuquén Carnalita Regina Bayovar III Evate Moatize II Eagle Downs Ellensfield Belvedere
Copper Phosphates Coal
Salitre Simandou
I ron ore
Malaysia
Potash
Corumbá Visconde Bayovar II
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Tubarão San Nicolas PDM
Malaysia Oman
Guaíba & Itaguaí
Low seaborne transit time, inventories synergy and blending flexibility are among the unique advantages of Vale’s DCs.
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Run of mine Water Lump Sinter feed Run of mine Lump Sinter feed
Conventional wet process Reduction of water and energy consumption. Reduction of CO2 emissions. No need for tailings dam. Reduction of capex and opex
Tailings
Vale’s dry ore process
Pellet feed
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Conventional mining Truckless transportation
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VLOC 400,000 dwt LOA 360m Capesize 170,000 dwt LOA 288m
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GHG emissions reduction
Reduction of 12 millions tons of CO2 equivalent in 25 years.
Income generation
Biodiesel
Allows the use of blend B‐20 (20% pure biodiesel and 80% regular diesel) from 2014 onwards. Benefits to about 2,000 families of small producers in the Amazon region.
Vale’s solutions for reduction of GHG emissions and carbon sequestration
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1 October 18, 2010
Executive Officer of Basic Materials Operations
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properties Other metal refineries
SUDBURY VOISEYS BAY PTI VNC
CRISTALINO, POLO, FURNAS, ALEMAO PORT COLBORNE CLYDACH ACTON
MATSUZAKA KOREA NICKEL
SOSSEGO
KALUMINES LONG HARBOUR PARAGOMINAS
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many different processing options dependant on the ore – There is an increasing shift to laterite ores – Sulphides are typically at the lower end of the cash cost curve
65% of global nickel demand – FeNi, NPI, and some other low grade products target stainless steel; represents majority of industry growth
– Sulphide process assets (dealing with 3rd party trade) are generally controlled by the top 5 producers
global nickel market.
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Carbonyl Electro
Thompson Sudbury Clydach Matsusaka KNC TNRC Dalian
Tonimet Utility
Voisey’s Bay PTI Onca Puma VNC
Refinery Mines Development properties
FeNi
Marketing or JV refinery
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Sudbury Voisey’s Bay Thompson Indonesia (PTI)
Onça Puma Vale New Caledonia (VNC)
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2.6 2.8 2.9 4.6 6.4 7.9
Eramet BHP Billiton Xstrata Jinchuan Norilsk Nickel Vale
¹ proven and probable reserves in 2009. Source: Companies’ reports and Brookhunt, 2009
million metric tons of contained nickel
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Norilsk 20.6% BHP 8.7% Xstrata 7.8% Jinchuan 7.6% Other 37.9% Vale 17.4%
Share of world finished nickel production - 2008
Source: CRU Quarterly Q2 2009
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2010 cash cost curves
NPI BF
Sulphides
NPI EAF
Laterite - FeNi
Source: Brookhunt, 2010 Q2
Laterite Laterite – – HPAL, HPAL, Caron Caron
US$/lb million lb
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Ensure success of projects Ensure success of projects
1 1
Reduce sustaining capital Reduce sustaining capital
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Improve cost efficiency Improve cost efficiency
3 3
Increase production Increase production
4 4
Improve price realization Improve price realization
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Complete and ramp-up of VNC, Onça Puma, Long Harbour, Karebbe => Average gross fixed asset/throughput in ‘15 50% of ‘09 figure Complete and ramp-up of VNC, Onça Puma, Long Harbour, Karebbe => Average gross fixed asset/throughput in ‘15 50% of ‘09 figure Reduce the sustaining capital requirements of the Canadian operations to 3% of gross fixed assets Reduce the sustaining capital requirements of the Canadian operations to 3% of gross fixed assets Reduce the operating costs of the Canadian operations by 5% in ’15 over ‘09 Reduce the operating costs of the Canadian operations by 5% in ’15 over ‘09 Seek production improvements => Increase production in Indonesia Seek production improvements => Increase production in Indonesia Maximize premium and maintain consistency of sales Maximize premium and maintain consistency of sales
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Ni Oxide Sinter Cobalt Pellets & Powders PGMs Gold Silver Copper anodes
Sudbury mines Clarabelle mill Copper Cliff smelter
Matte processing
Clydach nickel refinery Copper Cliff nickel refinery Port Colborne Acton
Copper concentrate
Cathode Rounds
Thompson mines Thompson mill Thompson smelter Thompson nickel refinery Voisey’s mill Voisey’s Bay mine
Copper concentrate
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nickel.
has commenced.
produce an intermediate product.
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58ktpa nickel as ferronickel.
first production in Q4 2010.
2 with commercial production in 2011.
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nickel concentrate refinery in Newfoundland.
nickel.
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concentration because: – The capex per ton in mining is only 50% higher than for smelting / refinery. – Mining/concentration gets 90% of LME prices (just 10% for smelting / refinery).
The industry is only 46% vertically integrated (in comparison to almost 90% in nickel).
supply.
in order to compensate for these very low TC/RCs.
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copper project to be executed by Vale.
and first cathode industrial scale production.
with commissioning in Q4 2010.
years, with a production capacity
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currently under construction.
scheduled for Q3 2011with a design production rate of 100 ktpa copper in concentrate.
copper and gold production and is expected to be in production from 2013.
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western extremity of the Zambian portion of the Copperbelt.
until 1959.
JV with African Rainbow Minerals (ARM).
been granted.
in concentrate.
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Horizon 1 Horizon 2
2010-2012 2012-2016
Horizon 3
2016 onwards Tres Valles 1 8 Salobo I 1 0 0 Salobo I I 1 0 0 Cristalino 1 0 0 Konkola North 1 0 0 1 1 8 Oxide 3 6 Polo 1 0 0 Salobo I I I 8 0 Alem ão 8 0 Kalum ines 3 6 Visconde 9 0 1 1 8 Sulphide 3 6 Furnas 1 0 0 Paulo Afonso 1 6 0
000’ metric tons
1 October 18, 2010
Executive Officer of Exploration, Energy and Projects
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Vale will consolidate its position as main premium iron ore supplier in the seaborne market. Vale’s technologies and experience in the implementation of large iron ore projects will guarantee success of the project.
the engineering to support Simandou
Guinea/ Liberia allows continuous training for different teams
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Extension:
Average height:
Hematite resources:
Hematite resources:
BSGR drilling campaign
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2011 feasibility study drilling campaign (Hematite focus):
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Extension:
Average height:
Hematite resources:
Hematite resources:
Drilling campaign
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2011 drilling campaign:
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Action plan – finished
Project team organization Infrastructure Development Agreement (IDA) Liberia Construction companies bid process for the emergencial works Drilling companies bid, sampling preparation laboratory bid, sampling assay solution Drilling camp construction Basic engineering for Zogota process plant
Action plan – in progress
and passengers
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1 October 18, 2010
Executive Officer of Fertilizers
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Fertilizer demand has been boosted by the required increase in agriculture yields to support continued growth of food production
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Soil conditions and available land drive fertilizer´s demand
Source: IFA
Soil Resilience Soil Performance
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Agricultural land, world grain productivity and fertilizer consumption
50 100 150 200 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09
Fertilizer Consumption (Mt)
1000 2000 3000 4000
Harvested Area (Mha) and Productivity(kg/ ha)
Harvest ed Area Fert ilizer Consumpt ion Grain Product ivit y
Fertilizer demand is driven by two main factors.
as a result of population and high per capita income growth.
quality land. Increase in grain production depends heavily on higher agricultural productivity, what leads to higher dosage of fertilizer.
Source: IFA
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Pace of global demand growth is expected to accelerate in this decade
40 80 120 160 200 61 73 83 89 92 95 98 '01 '04 '07 10 13 16 19
Fertilizer consumption, Mt
K2O P2O5 N
Global fertilizer consumption is expected to reach ~ 200 Mt by the end of this decade.
7.7 billion, 1.1% CAGR
has higher dietary standards .
That implies an average 3% CAGR for the growth of fertilizers demand the following years. Emerging countries will lead this growth and Brazil´s rate is expected to keep is 6% aa pace.
3 % p.y.
Source: IFA
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Fertilizer consumption has increased significantly specially in emerging countries. Brazil presented the highest growth rate among them in the last two decades
50 100 150 200 250 300 90 92 94 96 98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Brazilian Market World Market
90 00 05 06 08 % China 27 34 44 46 48 3% India 13 17 20 22 22 3% USA 18 19 19 19 19 0% Brazil 3 7 8 9 9 6% World 137 137 153 159 160 1%
Source: IFA /ANDA
6% p.y.
Fertilizer consumption, Mt Fertilizer consumption, index 1990=100
CAGR
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7000 14000 21000 28000 35000 China India EUA UE Brasil Outros
Nitrogen consumption kt of N
3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 China India EUA Brasil UE Outros
Phosphate consumption kt of P2O5
1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 China EUA Brasil UE India Outros
Potash consumption kt of K2O
China, India, the US, EU and Brazil represent more than 70%
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China is the main producer of nitrogen (ammonia) and phosphate (phosphate rock), but its production is mainly consumed internally
32% 9% 8% 6% 1%
China Russia India US Brazil
Ammonia production 153 Mt World in 2008 36% 18% 14% 6% 4%
China US Morocco Russia Brazil
Phos rock production 174 Mt World in 2008 33% 19% 15% 11% 2%
Canada Russia Belarus Germany Brazil
KCl production 54 Mt World in 2008 17% 15% 13% 6% 0%
US Canada Russia
Brazil
Sulphur production 48 Mt World in 2008
Source: IFA
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Origin Western Canada
Destination Brazil Destination Argentina
Origin Morocco Origin Arab Gulf Origin Eastern Europe Origin China **
Destination India Destination Southeast Asia Destination/Origin US/Mexico
Potash Phosphate Dry Nitrogen UAN (liquid Nitrogen)
* US exports only P. Us is a net importer of N and K. Mexico is a net importer of NPK ** China is the largest producer and consumer of fertilizer. China is the largest producer and a significant exporter of urea. Source: IFA
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Raw material prices (excluding ammonia) are expected to stabilize in the near future, and final products still have room to increase more
199 233222 278 318 278 323 378 415435 475 505 545 102105113 154 195 235 325330 365 395 420 455 588 522 274
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Raw Materials Ammonia FOB Tampa US$/t Basic Fertilizer UREA Fob Black Sea US$/t
Nitrogen
117 118 118 175 210 620 520 420 360 440 480 480 480 480
100 300 500 700 900
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14 16 18 20 Basic Fertilizer KCl Fob Vancouver US$/t
Potash
43 40 434756 262 95 100 110 61 442 36 124 147 146 177 216 247 930 410 335 365 430 467 506 546 176 50 54 38 50 26 37 329 413 200 400 600 800 1000
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Raw Materials phosphate rock Fob Morocco US$/t Raw Material Sulphur Fob Vancouver US$/t Basic Fertilizer MAP Fob Black Sea US$/t
Phosphates
Source: CRU
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80% 20% 47% 53%
92% 8% Imports in 2008 Brazilian production in 2008
Phosphate Potash
Source: IFA
Brazil is highly dependent on imported fertilizers
Nitrogen
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KCl consumption Mt in 2010
Vale is the only producer of Potash in Brazil and supplies an average of 10 % of domestic demand (6.5 Mt KCl in 2010). Agricultural frontiers head to the northeastern part of the country and total KCl consumption is expected to reach almost 10 Mt/y by the end of the decade
KCl consumption Mt in 2020
> 900 > 600 and < 900 > 400 and < 600 > 100 and < 400 < 100
Source: Agroconsult
Taquari- Vassouras
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> 500 > 300 and < 500 > 200 and < 300 > 100 and < 200
P205 consumption
kt < 100
Sources: ANDA, Conab, DIFM, Agroconsult
Uberaba Catalão Cubatão Guará Araxá Patos de Minas
P2O5 consumption in Brazil is 3.4 Mt and the projected demand is 4.7 Mt by the end of the decade. Vale assets supply around 45% of this total and are well located to support the regions with higher demand and growth potential
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Potash Phosphate
Neuquén ‐ Argentina Taquari Vassouras Carnalita Evate – Mozambique Bayovar ‐ Peru Regina ‐ Canada Rio Colorado ‐ Argentina Vale Fertilizantes Vale Fosfatados Salitre Anitápolis Vale Fosfatados expansions Expansion Bayovar Regina II ‐ Canada
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Acquisition of fertilizer assets. Start up of Bayovar in July 2010. Asset integration and
assessment and capture already in place. Salitre project to be submitted to Board approval on November 2010. Evate project under development Rio Colorado : submission to Board approval on November 2010. Carnalita and Regina (Canada) projects under development.
Phosphate Potash
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Natural gas Nafta Asphalt residue
N
Sulphur
S
Phosphate rock
P
Potash
K
Ammonia Nitric acid Sulfuric acid Phosphoric acid Urea Ammonium nitrate Ammonium sulphate MAP/DAP TSP SSP KCl
Natural Natural resources resources Initial Initial industrialization industrialization Final Final industrialization industrialization Granulation Granulation and and blending blending – – NPK NPK Farmer Farmer Vale presence
DCP
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3.2 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.6 5.5 9.0 9.6 10.5 11.5 16.5 18.2 44.7
CF Industries Foskor Ferphos Kara Tau Rotem Amfert Negev Gecopham Ma'aden PCS Phosphates GCT / CPG JPMC Vale Mosaic OCP 18.9 10.7 9.7 7.0 6.3 6.1 4.3 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 15.1 Intrepid Mining Mengo Potash Project Cleveland Potash Iberpotasas EuroChem Arab Potash Agrium Qinghai Salt Lake Dead Sea Works K+S Silvinit Uralkaliy Belaruskaliy Vale Mosaic PotashCorp
Source: Fertecon, Vale
Potash production capacity 2017 (Mt KCl) Phosphate rock production capacity 2017 (Mt rock)
Note: Considers total capacity of the projects PRC 4.35 Mta, VSP I 2.9 Mta, Carnalita I and II 1.6 Mta, Neuquén 1.0 Mta; UOTV 0.8 Mta Note: Considers total capacity of the projects Bayovar 3.9 Mta, Bayovar II and III 3.8 Mta, Evate 3.5 Mta, Salitre 2.0 Mta, Anitápolis 0.3 Mta
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KCl production. Underground mine – room and pillar mining. Estimate production for 2010 ~ 710 kt. Average KCl grade of 27% (2009). Life of mine up to 2019.
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mines plants Araxá Tapira Cajati Guará Uberaba Catalão Cubatão/Piaçaguera (Mine and Port) Patos de Minas Araucária
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Tonnage Grade P2O5 Tonage P2O5 MT % MT Proven 237.1 17.3 41.0 Probable 1.9 15.9 0.3 Total 239.0 17.2 41.1 Reserves
Located in Piura region in Peru. World class resource with lowest cost in phosphate rock production. Start up July 10, 2010. Estimated production of 3.96 Mtpa of phosphate rock to be reached in 2014. Life of mine: 27 years. Potential expansion under evaluation.
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Port Storage and conveyor belt Conveyor belt
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Located in Mendoza, Argentina Successful solution mining pilot trials undertaken Logistics and natural gas supply had been set on, mitigating project risk Proprietary technology defined and acquired Life of mine of at least 70 years Large resource and planned infrastructure can support further expansion Total capacity 4.3 Mt/y
reaching 2.4 Mt/y by 2016
reaching 1.9 Mt/y by 2023
Tonnage Grade P2O5 Tonage P2O5 MT % MT Probable 360.8 34.2 123.4 Total 360.8 34.2 123.4 Reserves
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Implementation plan : critical path to guarantee schedule is
Energy solution: JV 50% Vale to dedicated gas supply. Logistic solution: concession agreement already signed with Ferrosur. Permits already granted.
La Pampa Neuquén Rio Negro Buenos Aires
Zapala . Bahía Blanca Port
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Well drilling
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producing province of Saskatchewan, Canada, with logistics and infrastructure in place.
concluded in 2010).
intersected the 3 potash beds with a combined thickness of 20m - 30m.
capacity of 2.9 Mt/y by 2024.
Location
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Located in Sergipe, Brazil, near Taquari‐Vassouras
Solution mining method Development stage: FEL2 – pilot plant operation with two wells commenced in Aug/08
results
08, 2010 100% to domestic market. Gas supply (Long term): contract with Sergas First phase starting in 2015 and reaching 1.2 Mt/y by 2016
CARNALITA PROJECT UOTV ARACAJU TMIB
Pilot plant
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Located in Patrocínio/MG, Brazil, in the heart of a fast growing market. Open pit mine and sulfuric acid, phosphoric acid, MAP, DAP and TSP plants. Development stage: FEL 3. Start-up scheduled for 2014. Board approval in November/2010. Best practice on project development recognized by IPA (Independent Project Analysis). Pilot mining Mine, plant and infrastructure
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Northeast Mozambique, 65 km from the port of Nacala
Location
Consists of 3 types of phosphates:
Development stage: FEL 1 It is strategically located to supply the South and Southeast Asian markets
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Current Additional Total 2017 Potash (KCl) Phosphates Ammonia MAP (high) 0.85 kt/y 10 Mt/t 11 Mt/y 9.2 Mt/y 8.0 Mt/y 17 Mt/y 620 kt/y 620 kt/y 1,180 kt/y 1,300 kt/y 2,480 kt/y TSP (high) 865 kt/y SSP Dicalcium Phosp Urea 2,500 kt/y 500 kt/y 610 kt/y 670 kt/y 1,535 kt/y 120 kt/y 620 kt/y 2,500 kt/y 610 kt/y
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fertilizer business.
Brazilian market.