SLIDE 1 THE INTERSECTION OF GLOBAL FRAGILITY AND CLIMATE RISKS
Ashley Moran, University of Texas at Austin
Research team: Ashley Moran, Joshua W. Busby, Clionadh Raleigh, T
- dd G. Smith, Roudabeh Kishi, Nisha Krishnan, Charles Wight
USAID Adaptation Community Meeting February 7, 2019
SLIDE 2 ➢ Nexus of fragility and climate risks around the world
- First quantitative and mapping effort to assess intersection globally
- Builds on G7-commissioned framework on compound risks
- Commissioned by USAID/CMM
➢ New measures
- Climate risks: multiple climate hazards
- Fragility risks: state effectiveness and legitimacy in political, security, economic, social spheres
STUDY OVERVIEW
➢ New portraits of compound risks
SLIDE 3
CLIMATE RISKS
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data sources: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, UNEP/GRID-Europe, Viewfinders Panoramas.
Indicators Used to Assess Exposure to Climate Hazards
SLIDE 4
CLIMATE RISKS
Cyclones
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data source: UNEP/GRID-Europe.
SLIDE 5
CLIMATE RISKS
Floods
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data source: UNEP/GRID-Europe.
SLIDE 6
CLIMATE RISKS
Wildfires
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data source: UNEP/GRID-Europe.
SLIDE 7
CLIMATE RISKS
Rainfall Anomalies
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre.
SLIDE 8
CLIMATE RISKS
Chronic Aridity
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data source: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre.
SLIDE 9
CLIMATE RISKS
Low-Elevation Coastal Zones
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data source: Viewfinders Panoramas.
SLIDE 10
CLIMATE RISKS
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data sources: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, UNEP/GRID-Europe,Viewfinders Panoramas.
SLIDE 11
CLIMATE RISKS
Climate exposure measure: Busby et al. 2016. Data sources: Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, UNEP/GRID-Europe,Viewfinders Panoramas.
SLIDE 12 T
erritories with Largest Share of Population in Very High Exposure Areas
Note: “Very high exposure” areas are four standard deviations or more above the global mean exposure. Data source: Smith, Krishnan, and Busby 2016.
SLIDE 13 Note: “Very high exposure” areas are four standard deviations or more above the global mean exposure. Data source: Smith, Krishnan, and Busby 2016.
T
erritories with Largest Population in Very High Exposure Areas
SLIDE 14
FRAGILITY RISKS
Fragility measure: Kishi and Linke 2016. Data sources: Center for Systemic Peace; CIA; Gibney et al.; Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi; Miller, Holmes, and Kim; Pilster and Bohmelt; PITF; Marshall, Gurr, and Jaggers; U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants; World Bank; Compilation of armed conflict datasets and consultations with conflict experts.
Indicators Used to Assess State Fragility
SLIDE 15 T
FRAGILITY RISKS
SLIDE 16 T
T
FRAGILITY RISKS
SLIDE 17 FRAGILITY RISKS
Changes over Time in T
Data source: Kishi and Linke 2016.
SLIDE 18
The highest combined fragility-climate risks are in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by MENA and South and Southeast Asia.
KEY COMPOUND RISKS
SLIDE 19
KEY COMPOUND RISKS
Climate Exposure in Highest Fragility Countries
The highest combined fragility-climate risks are in sub-Saharan Africa, followed by MENA and South and Southeast Asia.
SLIDE 20
The majority of highly fragile states have more than 1 million people or more than 10% of the population in high-exposure areas.
KEY COMPOUND RISKS
Data sources: Kishi and Linke 2016; Smith, Krishnan, and Busby 2016.
SLIDE 21
KEY COMPOUND RISKS
Yemen Mali Republic of the Congo
Most highly fragile states face multiple overlapping climate hazards. Yet a few face high exposure to a single hazard that risks exceeding response capacity.
Niger
SLIDE 22
State legitimacy is poor in nearly all states with high compound fragility-climate risks.
KEY COMPOUND RISKS
SLIDE 23
KEY COMPOUND RISKS
Varied conflict patterns in similar climate stress Protests and riots Multiple ongoing long-term conflicts
Fragility is key in exploring indirect pathways between climate risks and potential conflict outcomes.
SLIDE 24
OPPORTUNITIES
Group 1: Act now and leverage finance
SLIDE 25
OPPORTUNITIES
Group 2: Identify targeted and prioritized investments
SLIDE 26
Group 3: Monitor early and avoid escalation
OPPORTUNITIES
SLIDE 27 Compound fragility-climate risk assessment can:
- Identify focal points for intervention
- Support early action to prevent new compound risks
- Support policy coordination
- Develop broadened strategies for reducing fragility
- Identify the best channels for climate actions in fragile states
OPPORTUNITIES
SLIDE 28 Ashley Moran Joshua Busby Clionadh Raleigh State Fragility Initiative Director Associate Professor Senior Professor Robert Strauss Center LBJ School of Public Affairs School of Global Studies University of T exas at Austin University of T exas at Austin University of Sussex ashleymoran@utexas.edu busbyj@utexas.edu c.raleigh@acleddata.com T
- dd G. Smith, Roudabeh Kishi, Nisha Krishnan, and Charles Wight
Research team: For study reports, data, and maps, see www.strausscenter.org/strauss-articles/state-fragility.html.
